Weekend Winners Club

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Wednesday, September 30.  It’s never too early to start picking the Preakness, and we began a week ago analyzing a possible field of 15.  Now that we have the final field of 11, barring any scratches, we can make some more accurate predictions.  In our previous edition, we analyzed Kentucky Derby runners historically in the Preakness.

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First, meet the Preakness field including morning line odds after the post draw. We lost 5 horses from last week’s edition, but also added the #5 Kentucky Derby runner.  You can open or download the actual grid spreadsheet here. Vote for the winner at page bottom.

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The first thing that you should notice is that even though we lost 5 from last week, we didn’t lose any front running speed.  There are still 3 E8’s, an EP8, and some EP6’s.  That means the pace will likely get hot up front, and Authentic won’t have it easy. 

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The Derby champ handled it brilliantly last out, but it’s just a month after his best and longest career race, and there’s lots of speed. Baffert has never lost the Preakness with a Derby champ, but this year is different in many ways.  For one, it’s October, and most importantly, there’s no Triple Crown up for grabs this year.

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Competition on the front end includes the brilliant filly Swiss Skydiver, fresh off a Kentucky Oaks runner up finish but vanquished any distance questions with a 10f Alabama romp.  NY Traffic had a disappointing Derby fading to 8th, and also couldn’t keep with Authentic in the Haskell although did scare the champ with a late surge there.

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Art Collector finally enters the Triple Crown fray, and is rated as en EP8 because he has shown the ability to run from off the pace and still win.  His brilliant 5 race winning streak includes one such victory, chasing Swiss Skydiver in the Blue Grass and putting her away for trainer Thomas Drury.

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The 3 EP6’s will certainly pressure the pace, but I only give one of them a serious shot. Pneumatic, who was slated to run in the Derby up until the week of, and finally showed the class that he belonged in his final prep winning the Pegasus.  There is a distance question here, as he’ll have to hold up for another furlong.

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Thousand Words is probably the most interesting newcomer.  Also withdrawn the week of the Derby, the former million dollar baby also won his final prep, in front running style.  But he has shown the ability to win from off the pace, as he did in his first 3 starts, including 2 graded stakes wins for Baffert.

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But all this speed up front should shape up well for late runners, right? Yes it should.  Enter Max Player, a last minute entry, who closed for a strong 5^th in the Derby, which believe it or not was actually the WORST of his past 4 races.  He could be up for another big one here as Asmussen gets a handle on him.

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Mr. Big News is also a good late runner and proved it in the Derby, closing for a strong 3^rd. But that was also his best career race, and after two best career races, he fell flat in the next race. It seems he can’t string together two in a row, and keeps oscillating, so it could be another disappointing race.

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Although the Preakness is commonly thought of as a frontrunner’s race, there’s always an S type late runner that finishes on the board.  And, top 5 Derby finishers usually finish ITM, so one of those two will definitely get purse money and I’m leaning Max Player.  Excession is also an S0 but he will have to show marked improvement in his 7 months off since the Rebel stakes.

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We mentioned just about every horse, if not by name, and how they will play into the pace scenario. Here’s the predicted finishing order of the Preakness based on this analysis.

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3  Art Collector 5-2

1  Authentic        9-5

8  Max Player     15-1

4  Swiss Skydiver              6-1

5  Thousand Words         6-1

10 Pneumatic     20-1

7  Mr. Big News 12-1

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We gave you 7 here because, are you really going to bet the Super High 5 with just 5 horses? OK. However you bet it, good luck! 

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For all past and future Preakness analysis, just click the Preakness link on the top or side menu.

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Click here for Pimlico Grids all Friday, Saturday, or for any other major track and race. A new 2020 only special Preakness thru Breeders’ Cup option.

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