Loading ...Nov 04 2020
Breeders’ Cup 2020 Spotlight: BC Distaff G1 Precap
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Wednesday, November 4, 2020. Lexington, Kentucky. Today’s Breeders’ Cup spotlight race is the Longines BC Distaff G1, to be held on a sunny Saturday afternoon at approximately 3:54PM ET at the beautiful Keeneland dirt race course.
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Saturday Nov.7 R10 3:54ET 9f D BCDistaf-G1 3 UP FM
The Distaff is shaping up to be an awesome and exciting race this year. To most people, at first glance, it does look like a two horse race, and it just might come down to that. But there are 10 outstanding fillies and mares competing for the crown, and besides that, you need 4 in a superfecta.
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The talented fillies are listed below in the predicted order of finish, with post numbers and morning lines attached, for your wagering convenience. We give you 6 to cram into your superfecta. You’re welcome.
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10 Monomoy Girl 8-5. An incredibly deserving favorite and unbeatable when the 5yo mare is at her best. Her worst career race were two runner-up finishes, and in her past 10 all she’s done is win all 10, which includes 7 Grade 1 races and a couple G2’s andwiched around a year off with colic. She’s top in Power and speed, and I like her oscillatory pattern coming in. They were all wins of course, but her best runs were two and four back.
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5 Swiss Skydiver 2-1. This brave young filly is the primary reason I’m afraid to just single Monomoy Girl. Last out was her second race taking on the boys, and beating all 10 of them in the Preakness G1, making up for her runner up in the Oaks G1 before that. 2nd in Power, top in LP and Stamina. The only problem I have is her oscillatory pattern, with the best races coming 1 and 3 back. See the Distaff Grid to see what I’m talking about.
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8 Valiance 12-1. Long Shot Special alert! She may not win, but double digit odds are nice for exotic wagers. The lightly raced 4yo came out of relative turf obscurity two races back to win the Eatontown which was taken off turf and run on the slop, then followed that up with a Spinster G1 win over Ollie’s Candy and Lady Kate of this field. That was enough to convince Todd to enter her in this one, and let’s face it: Pletcher at 12-1 is an automatic bet.
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9 Ollie’s Candy 10-1. This 5yo mare has more experience than Valiance, but was passed and beaten fair in the Spinster. In her past 8 races, including 7 G1’s, she’s finished on the board every time, with only one finish worse than 3rd. 2nd in Speed, 3rd in Power ranking, just doesn’t seem to have enough to outfinish the top 2 if they’re on their game, but could definitely take 3rd. Another LSS alert.
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2 Harvest Moon 12-1. The lightest raced filly in the field, we haven’t seen big numbers from her yet, unless you look at the win column, where she’s won all 4 since moving to dirt, and that includes a G3 and G2. What you also see is the PF’s improving each time, and that applies to 3 sets of speed figures I’m looking at. She’ll need to do a bit more to win here, but may have the ability to do just that. Another great LSS that could hit the board.
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6 Point of Honor 30-1. Finding fault in this 4yo filly is difficult. In her past 10, only one finish worse than 3rd, and that includes 5 G1’s and 2 G2’s. Besides that, 2nd best LP and 3rd in Stamina. She consistently runs well late, which is why she hits the board every time, which she may well do here. There’s not an enormous amount of speed in this race but there’s enough quality speed to set up for a solid closer. At 30-1 this is a great super LSS to use at the bottom of the tri and super.
Of the others, I just don’t see them hitting the board. Horologist is capable but I don’t like her current oscillatory pattern, or the fact that she’s bombed in every G1. Ce Ce also has the ability to get purse money, but I think this is bit out of her wheelhouse distance for this high class field.
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So I’m seeing it as 10-2-8-9-2-7 and hoping Horologist and Ce Ce take a lot of action. This analysis gives you plenty of ammo for the exotic wagers on this one.
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Yesterday’s spotlight was the BC Juvenile Fillies, so use that to help complete your Juvenile Fillies-Distaff Double which begins on Friday. Stay tuned to the Breeders’ Cup link on the top or side of your window for the remaining great free analysis to come this week!
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Remember that no on-site spectators are allowed, so don’t get in your car and drive to Lexington, but you can watch and bet on all the races with TVG, among other gaming apparati.
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