Weekend Winners Club

.

November 10, 2020.   They say hindsight is 2020, which is true in many cases, but not always when it comes to horses, and definitely not when it comes to the Breeders’ Cup 2020 at Keeneland.  There weekend was full of track records, long shots launching bombs in every other race, and some big wins for our team here using the Grid.  Over all , it was largely a tale of two days.

.

.

Let’s just recap it race by race, starting with Friday.  The BC Juvenile day had 6 juvenile stakes races, and you know who’s good at capping the juvies right?  True, but also, they can vary widely in form from race to race, which is what happened several times on this day, leaving most of us bewildered.

.

FRIDAY NOVEMBER 6:  DAY 1 DEBACLE:

.

R1 11:30ET 6.5f D NyquistB125k 2 YO 

The day started off quite normally, with a co-favorite and top Power horse in the Grid winning followed by the top EP and Speed colt at 5-1.  The first track record of the weekend was set.  Not much to like about the 3^rd or 4^th placers.

.

R2 12:05ET 6.5f D SongbirdB125k 2YOF

Things already started going downhill.  The 8-1 winner was 3^rd in EP, 4^th in Speed and Power in the Grid, out of 14 fillies, and had the 2^nd best PF overall, albeit set on turf.  Obviously we should have paid better attention to those figures, and hindsight close to 2020 here. Runner up made sense.  Again, nothing to like about the 3^rd place at 70-1 or the 4^th at 24-1.  But you learn and highlight the trainer and jock where they appear in the later races.

.

R3 12:40ET 9f T BryStatnB150k 3 YO 

This is where the real fireworks started.  The alternate entry got in, had nothing to like on paper, and won at 74-1, the 2^nd longest in a field of 15.  He literally had the lowest high PF and the lowest power ranking in the Grid, and obviously in most other materials. 2^nd and 4^th made sense but it didn’t matter.

.

R4 1:15ET 6f McCnl SprB150k 3 UP FM

Things finally made sense again here, with the 3-1 favorite / top EP/Speed on top of the top LP on top of a random top 5 on top of the top power horse.  What didn’t make sense was the jockey trainer combo from race 2, didn’t fire at all and they were never in it, even with the ML fav.  Getting the order right was the only hard part.

.

R5 1:50ET 13f D TbAftAlc-G2 3 UP 

You’d figure there would be some weird things happening at the obscure 13 furlong distance that none of them had ever raced at before.  But that’s why you have the Grid, so you can at least bet on top Power, Stamina, and LP picks.  No such luck.  To sum it up, let’s just show the odds of the top 5 finishers in this 14 horse field:  11, 33, 53, 9, 41.   They’re like lottery numbers.  The top two public betting choices finished last and 3^rd to last.  At least the 4^th place horse was my top pick, but making sense of the rest of it is somewhat of a futile waste of time, and irrelevant in the grand scheme.

.

R6 2:30ET 5.5f T BCJvTfSp-G2 2 YO 

This was easier to make sense of, with the obvious 4-5 winner.  The 11-1 runner up had a case also, with the 2^nd best PF overall, achieved last out. After that the two Euro invaders rounded out the super, but all of which was still tough to get with 15 entries to choose from.

.

R7 3:10ET 8f T BC JuvTrf-G1 2 YO C&G

This is where you would expect the Euros to dominate the field of 14, but no, they only got 2^nd and 4^th.  On top was the 30-1 American horse that everyone overlooked.  Sure, he was 2^nd in LP and 3^rd in Stamina, but we too overlooked him for the win. The top US horse on paper, finished in the bottom half of the field at 5-1.  Oh well.

.

R8 3:50ET 8.5f D BCJuvFil-G1 2 YO F

Now that our last Pick 4 was already dust, it was time to get a good win of some sort.  Easy enough with a field of 7 US fillies. We got a mild upset on top, and the favorite finished off the board, for decent tri and super payouts using boxes.  See our Precap of this race here.

.

R9 4:30ET 8f T BCJvFlTf-G1 2 YO F

No surprise here with the favorite winning, followed by my 2^nd, 4^th, and 5^th choices, all Euros filling out the super at odds of 22, 11, and 5.  We got a nice dime super to pay over $500!  50 cent tri paid over $400.  The race basically saved an otherwise miserable day, but you had to know how to read Europeans.

.

R10 5:15ET 8.5f D BC Juvnle-G1 2 YO C&G

Finally, the Juvenile, with a field of 14 and this is where we’ll make a bunch of money right?  Not exactly.  The winner, 2^nd choice at 7-2, and the prohibitive favorite finished 4^th at 4-5.  In 2^nd was the longest shot in the field at 94-1 and in 3^rd a 30-1 at 3^rd that there wasn’t much to like about either.  A late Pick 3 of $90 was the only real achievement here, as all other verticals were broken earlier.

.

Grid Grade for Saturday:  C

.

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 7:  DAY 2 RECOVERY

.

R1 10:15ET 6f D PerryvlleB125k 3 YO 

Saturday started out much like Friday, with a favorite setting a track record in a sprint, this time at 1-5.  The next 3 were drawn out of a hat and the payouts sucked anyway.

.

R2 10:45ET 7f D LafayetteB150k 3 UP 

Another easy winner, this time at 4-1 with the top Power horse, but no exotic win here as the runner up at 11-1 had only looked good enough on a sloppy track.  It’s a shame because 3^rd and 4^th were gettable.

.

R3 11:20ET 6f D QtrFSprgsB125k 3 YO F

Another easy winner as the ML favorite won for Baffert at 5-1.  Runner up top Power at 3-1, then 3^rd broke the exotics at 40-1.  Again too bad because 4^th was easy top LP at 6-1.

.

R4 12:02ET 7f D BC FMSprt-G1 3 UP FM

Baffert’s super filly Gamine set a new track record at even money. Runner up top Speed and EP at 3-1, 3^rd was our 4^th pick at 6-1, and 4^th was top LP at 28-1 that we desperately wanted to get into 3^rd.  So it was an easy exacta, tri and super all around, but the super was the only good payout.

.

R5 12:39ET 5.5f T BCTrfSpt-G1 3 UP 

It’s turf so look at Euros right? There was only one, and she beat all the boys at 10-1, giving us a nice $22.40 payout on that.  Unfortunately, we couldn’t put it together with the runner up at 26-1 even tho he was 2^nd in LP, but in a sprint field of 14 we were looking for more.  Again, too bad because 3^rd and 4^th were gettable.  The best thing about this race is that we finally got on the verticals board with a Pick 4 payout of over $600.

.

R6 1:18ET 8f D BCDirtMi-G1 3 UP 

Another non-surprise winner, favored Knicks Go set another track record, as he did here a month ago, this time at 9-1 odds.  The front running wins gave him both track records at 8 and 8.5f.  Unfortunately once again, the runner up at 62-1 was one of the least qualified in the field.  And again, too bad because 3^rd and 4^th made sense.

.

R7 1:57ET 9.5f T BC FMTrf-G1 3 UP FM

It’s a turf route race, so what do we do here? That’s right, we convert our dollars to Euros.  That gave us an awesome win on Audarya, our 3^rd pick who gave us $37.60 on the win bet.  Our 2^nd pick the 5-2 favorite was the runner up, and our top pick lost the rider at the start at 14-1.  Ah, what could have been.  Because we overlooked the actual 3^rd and 4^th long shots as there wasn’t much to like.  The $1 Exacta still paid $100 so that wasn’t bad at all. 

Most importantly, even with 2 prohibitive favorites winning this Pick 4 sequence, thanks to putting the top Euros in there, we converted our Euros back to $917 for the Pick 4 payout while watching another track record set, this time on turf.

.

R8 2:36ET 6f D BCSprint-G1 3 UP 

It’s a good thing the Pick 4 ended the race before this, because we didn’t like the 18-1 winner in a very competitive field of 14.  The only win here was an across the board wager on the runner up at 5-1, our 2^nd choice because of top LP.

.

R9 3:15ET 8f T BCMile-G1 3 UP 

It’s turf, so time to convert dollars to Euros, which we did.  We took the top two Euros and both missed the board.  Instead, the absolute worst horse in the field won at 73-1 for Aidan O’brien, whose other two long shots finished 2^nd and 3^rd.  I think this one was fixed because the results still make no sense, and the commentators were praising O’brien for his support of the Breeders’ Cup every year, and saying how this race had eluded him.  It must have been some kind of gift.

.

R10 3:54ET 9f D BC Distaf-G1 3 UP FM

Now that our late Pick 4 was destroyed, it was time to get back on track with an even money win by super mare Monomoy Girl at even money.  It was looking awesome in the stretch as our 3^rd pick and top long shot special Valiance pulled into 2^nd at 14-1.  However, our 2^nd LSS pick faded to 4^th at the same time, being replaced Dunbar Road at 25-1, who sabotaged what would be some good trifecta and super payouts.  Precap here shows our position.

.

R11 4:33ET 12f T BCTurf-G1 3 UP 

It was time to convert to Euros again so we did, but they were over half the field so it’s a good thing we chose wisely.  Our top 4 picks included the top US horse, and they all finished in the top 4.  Imagine our pleasant surprise at a $1790 superfecta and $131 for the 50 cent trifecta.

.

R12 5:18ET 10f D BCClasic-G1 3 UP 

Authentic was up to the challenge, setting another track record at 4-1, even though by that point the timekeeper was drunk and we still don’t have any fractional times.  The frontrunning win that some are saying others “let him get away with” is thus legit no matter what the fractions were. The fact is they couldn’t keep up with him.  Global Campaign at 25-1 refused to fade to 4^th, again wrecking our hopes for a good tri and super.  The Pick 3 didn’t pay a lot but better than nothing.   

.

All told, using the Grid and some other unnamed sources to evaluate the foreign contingent, we reeled in over $3000 in payouts on Saturday, more than making up for a dismal Friday.  The big profit margins were on the $1500 in Pick 4 payouts, bets which cost about 10% of that.  The long shot wins and exactas made the day along with the BC Turf superfecta.  It was definitely a tale of two days.

.

Grid Grade for Saturday:  A

.

Hindsight 2020 would say we just shouldn’t have bet on Friday, and normally I don’t, but it’s the Breeders’ Cup for crying out loud!  As it turned out, we more than made up for it on Saturday.

.

So that’s what’s possible using the Grid as your primary handicapping source.  You can get the Grid for all the major tracks and race days here.

.

Good luck!

.

Trackback URI | Comments RSS