Weekend Winners Club

.

Wednesday, November 25, 2020.  The first futures pool for the Kentucky Derby 2021 edition opens this Thursday, Thanksgiving Day and will run thru Sunday.  The Juveniles have already been running for Derby points, starting on this year’s Derby day in September, and 22 have their own entry in the futures pool.

.

Meet the contenders.

.

We have the Pool 1 Grid all ready for you this week and the first 2021 Derby Double Dozen rankings will be release later in the week.  Download the full Futures Grid here and start making your own picks, then get ready for the Dozen and find out who the best bets are.

.

The Field is of course the heavy favorite in Pool 1 as it is every year, with Essential Quality listed at 10-1 ML as the deserving individual entry favorite, as the BCJ winner usually is.  Not far behind is Baffert’s Life Is Good who arrived on the scene with a debut 9 length win last weekend. 

.

Speaking of which, its wasn’t the field, also 6-5 ML last year and closing at a ridiculous 1-1, that won this year’s Kentucky Derby.  It was Baffert’s Authentic, opening at 20-1 in Pool 1 and closing at 50-1.  So he was an example of a rare Pool 1 bet that not only ran but won on Derby day.

.

You probably wish you boxed him with Tiz the Law in an exacta last November, which ended up paying $4 grand, much more than on Derby day.  I’ve never bet the Derby exacta that early before, so in this analysis we’re going to figure out if you should do it this year.  Every year is different so let’s check it out.

.

In 2019 you recall the Derby was all screwed up with the DQ, but neither Maximum Security or Country House were in Pool 1.  The only way you would have won money was to have the Field on top of Code of Honor in an exacta, and even so, that only would have worked because of the DQ.  It paid a respectable $171 with Code of Honor at 18-1 in Pool 1.  But that exacta paid $3 grand on Derby day.

.

Here’s what happened from pool 1 in prior years this decade: 

2018:  Justify hadn’t debuted yet.  Field over Good Magic paid $52, less than on Derby day.

2017:  Always Dreaming was field.  Field over Lookin at Lee paid $161, less than half the Derby payday.

2016:  Nyquist individual fav at 9-1, Derby Day 2-1. Future exacta with Exaggerator paid $194, but only $30 Derby day.

2015:  American Pharoah 12-1 (5-2 Derby day).  Field exacta paid $58, Derby day $72. 

2014:  California Chrome and Commanding Curve were both field 4-5.  5-2 and 37-1 Derby day.

.

Prior to 2014, Pool 1 did not begin until February, so it’s a bit of apples and oranges to compare.  In only two of the 7 cases above were both the winner and runner up found in Pool 1, in which case it was profitable to bet that exacta, especially for 2020. 

.

In all the other years but 2014, a field with the eventual winner or runner up in the exacta box was the winner, usually with the field on top.  So this looks like the best winning bet, but is it? Let’s analyze.  You noticed that the exacta paid less than the Derby payout for every field/entry box.  But you also get a lot of unnamed horses in the field in one bet rather than boxing however many.

.

The second thing to keep in mind is that if you don’t box the right individual entry with the field, then you win nothing.  The best bet is probably to take your favorite 3, 4, or 5, or however many in your budget, individual entries and box them with the field.  Include some good long shots and Baffert trainees. 

.

Bet to win on any of those at 20-1 or better that you think have a good chance, or even at 10-1 or better if you think they have a really good shot at it.  Remember it’s Pool 1, and most of these entries won’t even run for the roses next May.  In 2019, only 5 Pool 1 horses made the field, in 2020 only6 made it.

.

It’s really early, and only 25% of the horses listed will even run for the roses on average, so you have to get really good odds to bet it.  That’s why betting the field to win is horrible bet at even money or anything less than 5-1 to be honest.  It is however, good to include with your exacta box as shown above.

.

Stay tuned for the first Derby Double Dozen this week and remember there is a key juvenile race at Churchill this weekend, so pay attention to whether your favs are running in that or not before deciding when you will bet. 

.

Good luck!

Trackback URI | Comments RSS