Weekend Winners Club

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November 27, 2020.  Churchill Downs.  Yes, it was only 2.78 months ago that the 2020 Kentucky Derby was run, but it’s late in the year and time to start looking at the 2021 Kentucky Derby contenders.  This initial version of the Derby Double Dozen is here because Futures Pool 1 is running this weekend, and we already posted the Grid and some analysis for that earlier this week.

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This Double Dozen is yet another objective look at the contenders, but with expert judgment and analysis involved in the process, rather than just a purely statistical list like the American Free Handicap.  In short, it’s my take on the top Derby contenders right now.  Below the table is a brief explanation of the top 12.

2021 Kentucky Derby Double Dozen November 27 2020

Rk	Horse	Sire	Trainer	HiPf	Last	Race	Next Up
1	Life Is Good	Into Mischief	Baffert Bob	96	1st	MSW 57k DM Nov.22
2	Essential Quality	Tapit	Cox Brad H	96	1st	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.6
3	Highly Motivated	Into Mischief	Brown Chad C	97	1st	Nyquist Stk Nov.6
4	Jackie's Warrior	Maclean's Music	Asmussen Steven M	96	4th	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.6
5	Keepmeinmind	Laoban	Diodoro Robertino	93	3rd	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.6	KYJC G2 Nov.28
6	Dr. Schivel	Violence	Glatt Mark	96	1st	Del Mar Fut G1 Sep.7
7	Hot Rod Charlie	Oxbow	O'neill Doug	95	2nd	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.6
8	Savile Row	Quality Road	Baffert Bob	88	1st	MSW 57k DM Nov.8
9	Scarred	Into Mischief	Asmussen Steven M	86	1st	MSW 85k CD Nov.5	OCM75k CD Nov.28
10	Fire At Will	Declaration Of War	Maker Michael J	92	1st	BC Juv Turf G1 Nov.6
11	Pickin' Time	Stay Thirsty	Breen Kelly J	89	1st	Nashua G3 Nov.8
12	Red Flag	Tamarkuz	Shirreffs John	90	1st	Bob Hope G3 Nov.15
13	Rombauer	Twirling Candy	Mccarthy Michael W	88	5th	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.6
13	Simply Ravishing	Laoban	Mcpeek Kenneth G	94	4th	BC Juv Fillies G1 Nov.6	Golden Rod G2 CD Nov.28
14	Reinvestment Risk	Upstart	Brown Chad C	93	10th	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.6
15	Speaker's Corner	Street Sense	Mott William I	89	1st	MSW 63k Bel Nov.11
16	King Fury	Curlin	Mcpeek Kenneth G	90	7th	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.6	KYJC G2 Nov.28
17	Caddo River	Hard Spun	Cox Brad H	91	1st	MSW 85k CD Nov.15
18	Hidden Stash	Constitution	Oliver Victoria	88	1st	MSW 70k Kee Oct.24	OCM75k CD Nov.28
19	Super Stock	Dialed In	Asmussen Steven M	91	2nd	Street Sense Oct.25
20	Ten For Ten	Frosted	Mcgaughey Claude Iii	89	2nd	Nashua G3 Nov.8
21	Sittin On Go	Brody's Cause	Romans Dale	89	9th	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.6	KYJC G2 Nov.28
22	Get Her Number	Dialed In	Miller Peter	87	1st	Am. Pharoah G1 Sep.26
23	Midnight Bourbon	Tiznow	Asmussen Steven M	86	3rd	Champagne G1 Oct.10

The first Derby Double Dozen for the 2021 Kentucky Derby as of November 27 2020

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1. LIFE IS GOOD!  Coming off his debut a week ago, where he registered the 2^nd best Grid PF of any contender in Pool 1.  One race wonder? Life is always good when the trainer is Bob Baffert and the sire is Into Mischief, a combination that won 2 of the last 3 editions of the Kentucky Derby.
2.  ESSENTIAL QUALITY.  The Brad Cox trainee is undefeated in 3, first breaking maiden at Churchill, then winning the Breeders’ Futurity G1, then the BC Juvenile G1.  He was ranked #1 before Baffert’s horse freaked out first out, and is probably 1 on most lists, and deservedly so.
3. HIGHLY MOTIVATED.  Chad Brown’s top contender set the high Grid PF mark last out while setting a track record at Keeneland on the first race of Breeders’ Cup Friday.  Into Mischief is looking good in the Future Sire wager this weekend, but we won’t get anywhere near the 17-1 we got last year.
4. JACKIE’S WARRIOR.  Only an idiot would give up on this one for one subpar race, which losing by 3 lengths in the BCJ by most wouldn’t be considered subpar.  But the high bar he set before that going undefeated in 4 including 2 Grade 1’s, makes it subpar.  He didn’t have the right trip in the crowded field and the pace was very fast. He’ll be back.
5. KEEPMEINMIND took another big step up in his 3^rd race finishing 3^rd in the BCJ after a strong 2^nd in the Breeders’ Futurity.  Great closing action 2 races in a row as evidenced by his top LP rating in the Grid.  Keep him in mind because he could improve again next out.
6. DR. SHIVEL has now won two in a row, including the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, which was only at 7f but it was still a win.  Mark Glatt announced he’s done enough this year and will race again next year sometime.  He’ll be off radar so now might be a good time to lock in the futures bet.
7. HOT ROD CHARLIE wasn’t on anyone’s radar after barely breaking his maiden fourth try at Santa Anita.  Then he got a fast pace up front in the BCJ and closed for a great 2^nd place at 94-1 for Doug O’neill, but in the end he got caught by the top dog.
8. SAVILE ROW is another one race wonder technically, but again his trainer is some guy named Baffert and he won easily enough at first asking and probably has more in the tank.
9. SCARRED is a one race wonder trained by Steve Asmussen, wherein he broke maiden easily at Churchill, where he will race again Saturday in an OCM75k, facing off with Hidden Stash at 8.5f.
10. FIRE AT WILL won the BC Juvenile Turf making his 3^rd consecutive win, a streak that began with an off turf run on the slop at Saratoga.  Michael Maker could put him back on dirt anytime.
11. PICKIN’ TIME has quietly put together 2 stakes wins including the Nashua G3, two days after the rest of the top juveniles ran at the Breeder’s Cup.  But he might be the best of the rest.
12. RED FLAG won the Bob Hope G3 for John Shirreffs the weekend after the BC, winning it easily and setting a good PF in the process.

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Keepmeinmind, King Fury, and Sittin On Go are all entries in Futures Pool 1, and are racing in the Kentucky Jockey Club G2 on Saturday.  Scarred is also running on Saturday in the OCM75k with Hidden Stash, who’s in the top 25 but not in the Pool. 

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So if you’re inclined to bet on one or more of those, maybe lock in your future bet on Friday, because if they win on Saturday, their futures odds will go down on Saturday and Sunday.  The rest of those listed, it’s usually best to just wait until Sunday and see what odds you get.

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Get the Grid for all your favorite tracks this weekend here.

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