Weekend Winners Club

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Saturday, December 12.  The Fair Grounds in New Orleans holds their annual Louisiana Champions Day, which means 7 stakes races for thoroughbreds and 3 more for quarterhorses to start the day, meaning 10 stakes in all.  Fortunately, we got you covered for all of them with the Grid and some analysis.  Grab today’s free grid to follow along.

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We shall skip past the quarters since I know little to nothing about analyzing them, and the Grid knows more than I do.  Starting in race 5 we will have our first thoroughbred stakes race at about 3PM ET.  First post is at 1PM ET with a quarterhorse stakes.  The track is muddy and the turf is yielding so beware.

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R5 2:58ET 6f D LaLassieB100k 2 YO F

It’s hard to find much value in this one.  All the single digit fillies are winners, most of them first out.  The only value contenders are then 8-1 Tecate Time who was 3^rd in the La Cup Juve Fillies behind 4-1 Rue Lala.  Spirited Beauty 6-1 should contend in her return to dirt. The 3 double digit long shots, no shot.

Prediction:  5 1 6 8 3 2

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R7 3:56ET 6f D La LdiesSpB100k 3 UP FM

Not a lot more value here on the morning line, with no double digits listed for one, so you’ll have to wait for closer to post time.  Snowball 9-2 runs late but ends up in 1^st as in her last 3, including the La Cup FM, where she beat Our Lost Love 6-1 who could turn the tables as the only frontrunner in the race.  Mr. Al’s Gal 3-1 will be hard to beat pressing the pace.  Southern Beauty is the next best value at 8-1.

Prediction:  3 2 4 7 8 1

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R8 4:25ET 8.5f T La LadiesTB100k 3 UP FM

Short field of 7 and there may be scratches.  It’s all about Room to Finish in this one.

Prediction:  5 6 2 3 1

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R9 4:54ET 6f D LaSprintB100k 3 UP 

This field has 9 entries but the prime contenders seem fairly obvious again and are less than 5-1 on the morning line.  I like those 4 plus Win Ya Win and Silver Galaxy both at 12-1 to hopefully add spice and price.

Prediction:  4 2 1 9 8

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R10 5:23ET 6f D LaJuvenilB100k 2 YO 

Alas a double digit field of 12 so lots of choices and some value scattered around. Chu Chu’s Legacy will be hard to catch and I doubt his odds of 9-2 will hold up, and he’ll probably be the post time favorite, rather than Sir Wellington who’s very solid so far. Cohere at 8-1 is my 2^nd choice, and I always like winners first time out.  Ready for Love will run in race 13 KT’s Jilted Groom would have been about 8-1 coming off his debut, and now comes off a bad outing, but 30-1 is ridiculous.  Super long shot special alert.  Make sure you check out this year’s American Free Handicap for the top rated juveniles.

Prediction:  4 9 7 6 8 10  

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R11 5:52ET 8.5f T LaTurfB100k 3 UP 

It’s hard to go against top LP and power in a turf route, and those honors belong to Budro Talking 4-1 and the favorite Ninety One Assault.  Technically top LP belongs to Jax Man, but he’s also lowest in Power and he’s an alternate. There’s not a whole lot of speed so Sydster or Carlea’s Dream could hit as well as nice double digit dogs Afleet Ascent and Unrestricted. LSS alert.

Prediction:  2 9 8 5 6 1

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R12 6:21ET 9f D LaClassicB150k 3 UP 

My top 3 are the same as the ML and in basically the same order so that doesn’t bode well for prices. Sydster was cross entered but they wisely chose this race in which he’ll be the sole frontrunner.  Grand Luwegee and Jus Lively look good because of the lack of speed, and people apparently already forgot Mageez won his last 2 dirt races. 

Prediction:  8 7 4 3 6 5

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That’s it for the stakes racing.  In race 13, Fifty Protection had a strong 2^nd in his debut.  Brad Cox’s first timer will factor in for sure, but look for the other trainers with good Win/ITM numbers shown in the Grid.  There’s a reason we have those.  Thus endeth today’s lesson. Good luck!

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The Grid can be obtained for all your favorite tracks and races here.

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