Weekend Winners Club

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Sunday, February 7, 2021.  Never before has a Superbowl had a more appropriate nomenclature than LIV this year.  In a year where people are fighting for their lives and their ways of life, in many ways, LIV pretty much sums it up.

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The key in daily fantasy sports is to get the best possible lineup. This has always proven to be a difficult task, but I’ve been getting better at it, especially in the playoffs.  In Fanduel, you only get 5 players, and 1 you choose as your MVP which gets you 1.5X points for that player.

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There are 2 realistic MVP candidates:  Tom Brady and Pat Mahomes.  Both of them average over 20 points per game as the highest scoring players coming into the game.  The only other I’m considering, and I put him as MVP into at least 1 of my 8 lineups, is L.Fournette.

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The problem with others as MVP is as follows:  T.Hill and T.Kelce are both coming off a monster game in which they went nuts.  They simply won’t repeat that the 3^rd game in a row.  Meaning someone like Sammy Watkins could have a big game instead.

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On the other side of the ball, Evans and Godwin both had a good game last out but nothing ridiculous, and they could repeat, but those are hardly MVP numbers.  Plus adding Antonio Brown to the mix, a great sleeper pick who will take points away from the other 2 WR’s.

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Brady and Mahomes are consistent, and either is your MVP.  I’m splitting my 8 lineups down the middle alternating those as the MVP.  I feel that TB will win but that doesn’t mean Brady is the points MVP.  I also feel a huge game from Fournette, who has always proven to shine in the playoffs.

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The rest of your picks are full of possibilities. But keep in mind that Brady and Gronkowski have a long Superbowl and playoff history together, and Cameron Brate is questionable for the game.  Although the signs are both will play, Gronk is way overdue for a big playoff game.

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Antonio Brown is a value pick in this game.  He hasn’t done much this season, but coming out of an injury, he’s healthy for the first time in a while and gives Brady another passing option since Evans and Godwin will be the focal point of the Chieves defense.

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As aforementioned in part, I really don’t like anyone coming off their biggest game of the season, so Hill and Kelce aren’t even an option for me, plus their fantasy salaries are ridiculous. I’d much rather spend the money on Brady and Mahomes.

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My ideal lineup is thus as follows, and it fits under the Fanduel cap: 

Brady, Mahomes, Fournette, Gronkowski, and Brown.

I have variations of this lineup rotating out the last 2 but the 1^st 3 are mandatory in my analysis.  If this is indeed the best lineup, I’ll be writing you from Cabo San Lucas next week while drinking Sammy’s Beach Bar Rum and Cabo Wabo tequila, completely mauled and enjoying my 6 digit win.

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If not, maybe one of my alternate lineups will win.  For value plays, I like Gronk and Brown as mentioned, but Brate, Miller, Pringle, Hardman, Watkins, and the kickers can also foot the bill.  Either kicker will likely guarantee you 10 points so they’re not really bad picks.  I just like the upside of the WR’s, as they could explode for big points as Brown and Watkins have in the past.

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For the game, I like Tampa Bay in this one. Put it this way:  Tommy is 6 of 9 in Superbowls, all this century.  Kansas City is 1 for 1 this century, due to last year’s win, and they could well win again this year.  But it’s a tall order, considering the formidable QB they are up against.

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The MVP position is up to you, flip a coin.  Mahomes can run and throw, and there’s a 99% chance he will break a run for at least 20 yards, whereas there’s a 1% chance that Brady will.  However, as aforementioned, there’s statistically a proven 67% chance that Brady will win the game.

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It’s not all about Brady of course, but his defense is playing well and the addition of deep threat Antonio Brown only gives him more options.  His release is quick and he moves around well in the pocket for someone his age, taking very few sacks.  He will be up for the challenge as he always has been.

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You can make an equal case for Mahomes, due to his ridiculous running ability that makes him a threat on any play, any down, at any point in the game.  He will do all he can to win the game and he’s dangerous, thus a very good MVP candidate as well, win or lose.

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Good luck today, and may the Horse be with you.

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