Weekend Winners Club

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Friday, February 12, 2021.  A new edition of the 2021 Kentucky Derby Futures Pool, number 3 to be exact, is underway this weekend.  Remember to place your bets by Sunday at 6PM ET, regardless of whatever this 2:59AM time that it keeps stating on the TVG site.

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But also remember, you get locked in for the odds of each betting day.  First open today’s Derby Pool Grid so you can follow along with what we’re talking about.

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As we speak here on Friday afternoon, the Bob Baffert trained Life Is Good is the narrow single entry favorite, after winning at first request and then also winning the Sham Stakes to begin the year.  Fair enough, but you’ll probably get a better price than 5-1 on him on Derby Day.

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Baffert’s Concert Tour also looks good in winning his first two, including the San Vicente Stakes last out, but has yet to race at over a mile.  Sneaking under the radar is Bob’s 3^rd trainee in the pool, Medina Spirit, who ran a close 2^nd in the Sham and won the Bob Lewis G2 Stakes last out.

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Running way incognito right now for Baffert is Freedom Fighter currently at 35-1, who begrudgingly gave up the 7f San Vicente title after setting the pace and faithfully battling down the stretch, only to lose by half a length.  Now his odds are more than twice that of Concert Tour who was supposed to win anyway.

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Now that we’ve covered Bobby’s barn, let’s move on that of Brad Cox, whose barn has been on fire for the past year.  Top steed Essential Quality currently is at 6-1 due to his BC Juvenile win at Keeneland last year and has yet to run this year.  A good selection but again, you’ll likely get better odds in May.

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Brad has one more currently in the mix and somewhat under the radar.  Caddo River has won 2 in a row at a mile including the Smarty Jones where he obtained his first Kentucky Derby points.

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Chad Brown also has a couple in the futures mix right now, including an incredible bargain on Highly Motivated, who registered the highest PF in the Grid of 97 last out.  That was achieved in the Breeders’ Cup undercard Nyquist Stakes wherein he also set a new track record at 6.5f.  30-1?  OK.  
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Chad’s other entry, Risk Taking currently at 35-1, hasn’t done much except win a pair of 9 furlong races in a row, including the Withers G3 last out.  That too looks like a good bargain at that price.  

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You may be thinking I forgot about the ever Derby-dangerous Doug O’neill. Nope.  Hot Rod Charlie is currently at 40-1 after a horrible trip bumping and grinding in the RB Lewis. Before that he was 2^nd in the BC Juve.  The Great One, also at 40-1, broke maiden last out after a narrow loss in the Los Al Futurity last year to what was Baffert’s top 2yo at the time.  It would be dumb to count out Doug’O and great prices.

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A very intriguing prospect is Shug (pronounced as in the word SUGAR, which some “professional” announcers embarrassingly don’t know and pronounce it as a rhyme with RUG, which doesn’t even make sense, but most broadcasters just read a fucking teleprompter) McGaughey’s Greatest Honour, a Tapit colt currently at 11-1.  He has the top aggregate LP in the Grid and drew off in the Holy Bull G3 as if he were the wind.

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Rob Diodoro trainee Keepmeinmind has Uncle Mo as the grandsire and hasn’t done much wrong, coming in at a close 3^rd in the BC Juvenile then following up with a win in the KYJC G2.  45-1 is a hefty price for the 4^th best late runner in the Grid.

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Prevalence deserves to be mentioned after an impressive debut in which he won by 8.5 lengths in a 7f MSW in late January.  It’s unclear where he will appear next, but his competent trainer is Brendan Walsh and he’s a direct son of the great Medaglia D’oro. 

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Those are my top contestants out of order.  The exact rankings assigned for the Derby Dozen appear in the table below, but remember, any of these with double digit odds are good value.  The table can be sorted by any of the column field headers.  So start sorting and shredding.

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2021 Kentucky Derby Double Dozen Top 25 February 12.

Name	Pool3	Style	Rank	HI	Sire	Trainer
Essential Quality	5	EP3	1	96	Tapit	Cox Brad H
Life Is Good	5	E6	2	96	Into Mischief	Baffert Bob
Concert Tour	17	EP6	3	93	Street Sense	Baffert Bob
Medina Spirit	25	E7	4	93	Protonico	Baffert Bob
Highly Motivated	50	P6	5	97	Into Mischief	Brown Chad C
Freedom Fighter	50	E6	6	92	Violence	Baffert Bob
Greatest Honour	6	S0	7	97	Tapit	Mcgaughey Claude Iii
The Great One	60	EP8	8	96	Nyquist	O'neill Doug
Swiftsure	99	EP6	9	94	Uncle Mo	Asmussen Steven M
Hot Rod Charlie	50	P3	10	95	Oxbow	O'neill Doug
Keepmeinmind	50	S2	11	93	Laoban	Diodoro Robertino
Prevalence	12	E6	12	91	Medaglia D'Oro	Walsh Brendan P
Senor Buscador	16	S0	13	90	Mineshaft	Fincher Todd W
Caddo River	15	E8	14	92	Hard Spun	Cox Brad H
Candy Man Rocket	40	EP8	15	93	Candy Ride	Mott William I
Dream Shake	25	S4	16	88	Twirling Candy	Eurton Peter
Fire At Will	30	EP5	17	92	Declaration Of War	Maker Michael J
Jackie's Warrior	24	E7	18	96	Maclean's Music	Asmussen Steven M
Mandaloun	60	P6	19	90	Into Mischief	Cox Brad H
Midnight Bourbon	40	EP7	20	91	Tiznow	Asmussen Steven M
Nova Rags	99	P7	21	88	Union Rags	Mott William I
Risk Taking	30	P3	22	92	Medaglia D'Oro	Brown Chad C
Roman Centurian	50	S0	23	89	Empire Maker	Callaghan Simon

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Some final notes.  If you do like Keepmeinmind, bet on him Friday because he’s racing tomorrow in the Risen Star G2.  If he wins that you can kiss 45-1 odds goodbye.  Mandaloun, Midnight Bourbon, and Senor Buscador are also in that race.  Buscador is 8-1 so you can wait on that on, but he does have good LP and if he wins the odds might suck come Sunday.

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Also, Essential Quality and Jackie’s Warrior may run in the Southwest Stakes at some point next week.  It’s unclear when the race will actually be held and if EQ wins, his odds may go down, but 6-1 is nothing to write home about in a futures pool. 
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At least half of those listed in the futures pool won’t even make the final Derby field.  But as recent history has it, 4 of our top 10 will likely complete the Derby superfecta.  Those are good odds.

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You can of course get the Grid for every major track and race right here.  Good luck!

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