Loading ...Feb 27 2021
Gulfstream Park Saturday Feb.27: Gulfstream Mile, FOY, Davona Dale, Oh My. Stakes Precap
Gulfstream Park Saturday Feb.27: Gulfstream Mile, FOY, Davona Dale, Oh My. Stakes Precap
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Saturday, February 27. Gulfstream Park in sunny Miami hosts the best North American stakes card of the month today, with 9 stakes races, 8 of which are graded. The highlight of course is the Fountain of Youth G2, but also we have the Davona Dale G2, GP Mile G2, Mac Diamarda and other stakes.
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We’ll break down the stakes races for you, using the Grid for analysis. First, grab the free Gulfstream Grid today to follow along and make some notes of your own. Racing starts early at 1130AM ET but the stakes racing doesn’t start until 1230 so you have some time.
The Fountain of Youth G2 is the last of 14 races on the day, taking the card past 6PM ET. This contest is for 3yo’s aiming for the Kentucky Derby and is worth 50 Derby points to the winner. 10 talented youngsters are slated for today’s contest.
The Chalk:  Greatest Honour 9-5 ML is legit and has top LP and Power in the Grid. (Note that Sososubtle appears to have top LP but since the calculation drops the lowest race, it’s only based on 1 race).  Greatest Honour has won 2 in a row at GP including the Holy Bull G3 last out for Shug (pronounced as in sugar, not as in rug) and is heavily expected to win here.
Fire at Will is listed as 2nd choice at 7-2 and has been slated for turf in all 4 races, 3 of which were wins. Ironically he broke his maiden on a sloppy dirt track at Saratoga in a stakes race taken off turf. Then he followed it up with 2 graded stakes wins on turf. He’s an excellent colt for sure, but there’s a reason Maker has had him on turf, and I don’t trust him on dry dirt at this point.
The morning line has 2 co-3rd choices listed at 5-1 each. One of them is Pletcher’s Prime Factor, who finished a distant 3rd in the Holy Bull, failing to make a closing move. The other is Drain the Clock, who has won 2 stakes in a row by 6 and 7 lengths here for Saffie Joseph. He has top EP and 2nd in Power in the Grid, and should be very dangerous here.
Tarantino at 8-1 ML faded to 2nd in the Holy Bull after chasing an honest but not torrid pace up front. Papetu 15-1 was 4th in that one, losing ground in the stretch, but before that was impressive finishing 2nd by a length in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes.
The last realistic contender is Sososubtle who we already mentioned, who opened up last out to break maiden in his second race for Armando De La Cerda, with Paco Lopez up as he is today. The race was on dirt at a mile here at Gulf and the PF puts him on the board. Long shot special alert.
It bears mentioning that Tiz Tact Toe 30-1, who I seriously doubt will win but could hit the board at long odds. It’s his first start on dirt, first for trainer Rob Hess, and first since being gelded. LSS alert.
Greatest Honour is indeed an S0 late runner but has proven that he doesn’t need a heated pace up front to win. In fact, he almost won at Aqueduct 3 back with a 50.8 half mile up front but understandably came up a head short. There’s enough speed for him here.
Prediction: 8 1 3 2 4 9 LSS 3 9
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Race 13 the Very One G3 is very intriguing. 10 older fillies and mares take to turf at 9.5f and this one is literally wide open. The 4 top late runners are very close in LP and normally that’s what we look for at this distance.
However, there’s almost no speed in the race, and we add a stakes runner from the UK who is a lukewarm ML favorite. I recommend doing some wheeling and dealing in this one. The only one I can’t make a case for is the longest ML shot in the field. So much for narrowing it down.
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The Davona Dale G2 in race 12 is the female equivalent of the FOY, with 10 talented fillies competing at a mile and aiming toward the Kentucky Oaks the first Saturday in May.
Vequist 7-5 is making her first start since winning the BC Juvenile Fillies G1 in November and unless the time off did her wrong, she will win this one. However, there is a significant amount of speed in this one so she may have to be rated against her will.
The only other one with the competitive speed to track the favorite is Competitive Speed at 15-1, who put up a nice PF 2 back winning a sprint stakes here. It will be her first time at 2 turns for Javier Gonzales but looks good going in.
Millefeuille and Crazy Beautiful also have good LP and competitive PF’s and someone else has to hit the board so those are my next choices.
Prediction: 3 7 5 6 LSS 7
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Honey Fox G3 Race 11 for older fillies and mares at 8f on turf.
Got Stormy has been running at one turn but has a lot of speed and is a proven graded stakes competitor at a mile, and thus is the deserving favorite. I also like the other single digit entries plus Jakarta at 15-1 for the long shot special. Jakarta always runs in sprints but her last race at a mile was a dirt stakes win here at GP.
Prediction: 2 6 8 7 4 LSS 8
The other stakes races look somewhat chalky with no really good plays identified yet so I’ll wait for post time to make decisions on those, but you’re free to use the Grid to make your own picks.
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Remember, you can get the Grid for all the major tracks and races right here.
Good luck!
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