Loading ...Mar 06 2021
Sat.Mar.6: Tampa Bay Derby, Florida Oaks, Hillsborough, Columbia, Challenger Stakes at the Downs; Precap
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Saturday, March 6, Tampa Bay Downs will host 5 stakes races today, 3 graded, highlighted by the Tampa Bay Derby. Before that, the Florida Oaks, Hillsborough, Columbia, and Challenger Stakes will fill out a great race card for Saturday. Racing starts at 12:17 so hurry up!
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Kentucky Derby preps and other big stakes racing are going on at Aqueduct and Santa Anita,today, including the Big Cap, Kilroe Mile, Tom Fool, and other great races. Click here to get the Grid for all tracks.
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Unlike other major tracks, Tampa has 10 or more entries in each stakes race except for the Challenger, a 5 horse contest for older horses. The weather is scheduled to be rainy on and off today, but who cares? Only connections are allowed at the track and you’re watching online or on TV anyway.
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First, get the free Grid today to follow along. Remember, the track will likely range from muddy to sloppy for most of the afternoon, and the non stakes races will likely be taken off turf. Also, pay special attention to the past performance numbers listed in black, which indicates a muddy/sloppy track.
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Let’s break down the stakes races and maybe a couple more to help you out today, starting with the featured race and working backwards.
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Tampa Bay Derby race 11 5:25 ET. Candy Man Rocket is the favorite, strong in his last 2 including a win here in the Sam F Davis G3 last out. He’s currently 30-1 in the Derby Futures Pool, but that could go down with an impressive victory today.
My 2nd choice is Promise Keeper, who opened up by 5 to break his maiden last out on a sloppy track at Gulfstream, earning him the 2nd best PF in the field. His 8-1 ML will likely end up at 3 or 4 to 1.
Hidden Stash is my 3rd pick and ML 2nd choice at 4-1. It looked like he was allowed to lollygag too far back in the Davis, but that kind of problem should be rectified with Bejarano back aboard.
Helium 6-1 ships from Canada for Mark Casse, beginning his career with 2 straight polytrack wins including a stakes at Woodbine. His first on dirt and route but he looks strong.
Super Strong 8-1 debuted with a win at Cameroon for Saffie Joseph, who apparently trains south of the border as well. I have a feeling he’ll compete in this one.
Unbridled Humor 20-1 looked like a run of the mill lollygagger in his 1st two, then got some semblance of a decent pace to run at last out and won. The good thing is, there looks to be plenty of pace in this one. A wise horseman once said: watch out for the higher priced entry of a top trainer. Super long shot special alert!
Boca Boy gets an honorable mention at 15-1 ML. He faded a bit in the Davis but before that enjoyed the sloppy going at Gulfstream for a $400k stakes win.
Prediction: 3 11 8 10 2 9 5 LSS (11) 2 9 5
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Florida Oaks G3 is race 10 for 3yo fillies going 8.5 on the turf. I have no problem with the top 3 chalk as they have great credentials. However a lot of speed looks possible in this contest so they could be compromised.
My 3rd choice is Big Band Luzziann 20-1 not because of the name but because of a strong late run and win in her debut on turf at Gulfstream. There should be a good pace set up for her this time. Super long shot special alert.
Mia Martina 8-1 is another strong late runner who won both her first two, and is the higher priced of the two Graham Motion entries.
Flight to Shanghai 15-1 is also an early runner, but trying first time on turf and two turns, they will certain try to rate her and with good speed she’ll be dangerous.
Be Sneaky 10-1 has about the same narrative, but she did run two turns last out on dirt, finishing 2nd in the Suncoast Stakes here at Tampa.
Prediction: 10 2 8 3 4 11 6 LSS 8 3 4 6
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The Hillsborough G2 in race 9 for older fillies at 9f looks very intriguing with plenty of possibilities. There are 3-4 lukewarm favorites on the morning line, any of which could be the post favorite.
On paper, there is almost no speed or pace in this one. Only 2 have a tendency to run anywhere near early, including Myhardblongstodady and New York Girl.
My top 3 choices are all technically long shots on the ML. La Signare, Micheline, and Miss Teheran look like they can all run at any type of pace.
It’s wide open and we’ll have to see how the soon to be yielding turf is playing and match it up with the strengths of the respective entries.
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The Columbia Stakes for 3yo on turf at 8f in race 7 looks a lot more clear cut. My super long shot special is alternate entry Blue Cat at 20-1, who I predict will win.
Prediction: 13 3 6 1 10 LSS 13 10
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Race 6: MSW 36000 for 3yo on dirt at 8.2f. This bears watching because it’s 3yo’s running on the Tampa Derby undercard at a similar distance.
Oh Steve at 10-1 is my top choice after debuting at 2nd in a 6f race with a strong late run, giving him the 2nd best PF in the field.
The chalk: Dreaming of Gerry, Seminole Beach, and favored Untreated are my next 3 for obvious reasons.
Then I have Last Investment at 8-1 who sucked last out in the Davis, but was strong in a race such as this beforehand. Son of Thudner at 6-1 and Big Venezuela at 12-1 could also compete.
Prediction: 4 3 2 8 6 1 9 LSS 4 6 9
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For the rest of the races you’re on your own. Download that Grid and make your picks, and good luck!
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Remember, you can get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races right here.
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