Loading ...Apr 03 2021
Sat.Apr.3 Keeneland Precap: Blue Grass G2 and 5 more Graded Stakes Races, big 3yo day
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Saturday April 3, 2021. Keeneland opening weekend rolls on in style today with 6 graded stakes races featuring the Blue Grass G2 and preceded by the Appalachian G2, Commonwealth G3, Shakertown G2, Ashland G1, and Madison G1. There are also 4 other 3yo races on the card making it 7 total for 3yo’s.
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For the sake of not taking up 5 pages we’ll just break down the graded races. First you’ll want to download today’s free grid here and follow along. If you notice horses missing, the morning scratches have already been processed. Weather is sunny and cool with a high of 60.
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Race 11: Blue Grass G2 for 3yo’s at 9f. There is absolutely no early speed in this race.  Only 2 of the 9 horses have more than 2 Quirin points and none of them has ever led at 1st call.  Two of them have led by the half but you would expect one of the favorites to lead by 2C.
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Essential Quality at 3-5 is not an attractive wager, but he showed early tendencies in his 2 races where the pace was dawdling. Regardless he won all 4 races including the BC Juvenile G1 and Breeders Futurity G1 both at this track last year for Brad Cox and Luis Saez.
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Highly Motivated at 3-1 ML will give him a run for the money and will also be expected to be near the pace. He has the highest PF in the field of 97, achieved in a sprint right here at Keeneland where he set a track record. He also has the high EP rating and some trainer named Chad Brown. Castellano mounts.
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If nobody else moves early, it will be a match race between the two favorites. So here’s where it gets interesting.
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Untreated at 10-1 moved to Pletcher’s barn and broke his maiden in style last out at Tampa on the Tampa Derby day, winning by 8+ lengths under a hand ride by Saez, taking the lead at the half after a suspect pace. Rosario will ride today and he will probably stick close to the pace especially if it dawdles.
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Keepmeinmind at 8-1 is the next logical choice, having finished only 2 lengths back in the BC Juve, where he achieved the 3rd highest PF in the field, following that up with a KYJC G2 win at Churchill. He has high LP and Diodoro’s barn is doing well, despite a poor effort last out at Oaklawn.
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Hidden Stash 20-1 broke his maiden here at Keenland last year. If he repeats the effort last out as runner up in the Tampa Bay Derby, he should hit the board for Victoria Oliver. Bejarano was up for the last race and both of his wins, so that also bodes well.
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Hush of a Storm at 15-1 looks like a good long shot after winning his last 3, but those were all on poly after his first race on dirt which was a disaster. I assume there’s a reason Morey has had him on the artificial surface other than just keeping him in Kentucky, but he could surprise.
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Leblon at 50-1 would be a great super long shot special if there were any early pace scheduled in this, but once again it looks like he won’t get any pace to run at. Lobo might give instructions to move him early. The same could be said for most of the field but this one is tied for high LP.
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Prediction: 4 3 2 1 9, or 4 3 then whoever wants to press the pace.
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Race 10 Madison G1 for 4up females 7f dirt. Again, not much pace slated for this 7 horse race. There’s only one early runner and a slew of presser style racers.
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The chalk is legit, especially Sconsin and Bell’s the One, but it could be a repeat of the contest 3 back where Mundaye Call 8-1 got out to an uncontested lead.
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Prediction: 3 4 6 1
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Race 9 Ashland G1 3yo fillies 8.5f dirt. Too bad there’s only 6 fillies running in this one, but there are several stakes winners to make it interesting.
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Simply Ravishing at 5-2 could end up the post favorite. All she needs to do is repeat any of her last 3 races with Saez aboard as he is today, including a G1 win here and a close 4th in the BCJF. Kenny McPeek is not satisfied with the 4th place effort last out.
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Malathaat 9-5 is the ML favorite after winning all 3 career races including a G2, all in New York. Todd now has her here no doubt aiming for the Kentucky Oaks next month. Rosario solidifies the entry.
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Pass the Champagne at 4-1 just broke maiden last out at Gulfstream but the PF earned puts her in the running here.
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Prediction: 3 5 2, and a poor betting race.
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Race 8 Shakertown G2 5.5f on turf. This one will be over before you know it, as the chances of it lasting more than 1:02 are very slim, especially with a big field of 13 packed with speed. It should be a good betting race. Despite the short distance, with this much speed you have to look at LP and Power closely.
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Bound for Nowhere is the lukewarm ML favorite and has the numbers to back that up, ranking top in power. However the 7yo hasn’t raced since last year’s Shakertown in July where he held on for 3rd.
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Imprimis is the 2nd choice and has 2nd in power and good LP, backing it up with several wins. His last run here was a disappointing outing in the BC Turf Sprint, but in 2019 he had a strong 3rd here in the Woodford G2 at this distance.
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Kanthaka at 6-1 is likeable here because of top LP rating in the Grid. He hasn’t had a bad race in a long time and has finished within 2 lengths of the lead in his 4 last contests, all graded races on turf. If he gets issued the strong pace up front as predicted, he might sail by all of them in the stretch.
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Turned Aside at 6-1 also looks good in this spot and would possibly also benefit from a strong pace. After that it’s kind of a crap shoot and we don’t know exactly how the pace will play out.
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Speaking of craps, Wayne Lukas has an interesting entry here with American Butterfly at 50-1. The last couple times he tried a turf sprint they got taken off turf, then he ended up in a turf route, a distance way too long. Maybe this is his day to shine.
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Prediction; 13 7 2 5 12 8
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Race 7 Commonwealth G3 4up 7f dirt. Another short field with not a lot of early speed. It’s hard not to like the chalk in this one either, so probably not good for betting. Attachment Rate cutting back to 7f could deliver a devastating closing move in this one.
Prediction: 1 2 5 4 7
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Race 6 Appalachian G2 for 3yo fillies 8f on turf. Another short field with not much early speed and the chalk is strongest. Gift List shipping from the UK could make it interesting at 6-1.
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Race 5 is an OCM for 3yo’s. Keep an eye on Democracy for Pletcher and One Fast Cat for Wesley Ward, both winners last out in their first career race, with PF’s that could have justified a Blue Grass run. They could be pointed to the Preakness after getting another race.
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Race 1 is an MSW for 3yo’s going 9f, the same distance as the Blue Grass. Four others are brave enough to take on the Pletcher trainee Ghazaaly, who came up a neck short of breaking maiden last out at 9f at Gulfstream. Danny Gargan will provide some competition with American Law. The others don’t look good on paper, but Sug Mac and Chad Brown do well with 2nd career races.
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That’s all the analysis for today, as racing begins in half an hour, so get to it and good luck!
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To get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and race days, get it here.
