Weekend Winners Club

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Friday April 9. Keeneland racing has a big card as far as Fridays go, with two stakes races including the Grade 1 Makers’ Mark Mile to highlight the 10 race card.  In addition, the TVG Super 5 today is comprised of races 6-10 at Keeneland, all of which we’ll break down.

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Before we go on, I should mention that this is a great time to join the Weekend Winners’ Club.  For just one month of service you will get the Grid for all your favorite tracks every race day, including the big race days at Keeneland and Oaklawn Saturday, and other major race days thru the Kentucky Oaks and Derby.  You can do that right here.

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On with the analysis.  We will analyze races 6-10 so that one of you will win the Super 5 and then tell us how great the Grid is.  Believe it or not, I’ve never got more than 4 of 5, because you only get 1 pick per race which makes it difficult.  Download today’s free Keeneland Grid to follow along

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R6 3:51ET 8.5f D OClm 62500n2x 4 UP FM SUP5

This race begins the Super 5.  I like Movie Moxy over Spice is Nice, primarily because she’s run this year and not poorly, but it’s hard to go against Pletcher, 8 month layoff or not.  It’s kind of a toss up at this point.  Late runners are doing well even on dirt sprints, so at route Maedean looks good too.

Prediction:  1 5 4 6

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R7 4:24ET 5.5f T MBS LmstnTSptB100k 3 YO F

This is a money back special race with TVG, meaning you can bet $10 to win and get it back if your horse runs top 3.  At 5.5f, you have to go with speed.  Campanelle is a legit favorite, winning first out, then the Queen Mary at Ascot and a G1. She wasn’t bad in the BCJFT at 8f either.

But also Toby’s Heart won first out, and 2^nd out in a stakes race, not faring too well at a mile after that.  And despite the S1 running style, has the 2^nd highest EP rating, one point behind the fav.  She also has the highest PF in the field, achieved on her debut race.  V dangerous.  We don’t know what Campanelle’s European PF’s are.

Prediction:  8 7 9 6 4 1

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R8 4:57ET 6.5f D Alw 81000n1x 4 UP 

Plenty of speed slated for this one so I have to go with the top 3 late runners:  Aloha West, Answer In, and Schmoozin, who’s coupled with Wild Behavior so you get 2 for 1 chances on that one.  Gozilla has the top EP speed but I’m seeing late runners taking over today on dirt.

Prediction:  3 5 1/1a 2 6

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R9 5:30ET 8f T MkrsMkMl-G1 4 UP  MBS

Another money back special race.  On turf routes I always like late runners and top LP, except when there’s almost no speed as in this one.  So here I like Somelikeithotbrown, a name made for Kentucky.  He has top EP by a lot, and might not be caught. Cutting back to the 8f distance which is perfect for him.

Sacred Life will be heavily bet with high Power and 2^nd best LP.  Ride a Comet will get some attention with high LP and good PF’s at this distance.  I think Raging Bull will be too late to the party. Watch out for inside speed Get Smokin to hit the board.

Prediction:  3 4 6 8 1 9

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R10 6:03ET 7f D MSW 3 YO F 79000

The last race is an 8 filly maiden contest, after scratches, with a couple first timers.  Therefore anything can happen.  On paper it looks like it’s between favorites Caramel Swan and Front Street, both of which have recent PF’s in the high 80s. 

Red Hot and Blue and Musical Cat both had nice debuts with the latter having an attractive morning line of 12-1.  Mo Dean is coached by Chad Brown and she will get action as well.

Prediction:  9 5 1 7 2

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That’s it for today.  Good luck!

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Remember to look over your options to join the WWC if you like the Grid today.

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