Weekend Winners Club

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Saturday, April 17.  Oaklawn Park will run the fabled Grade 1 Apple Blossom stakes for fillies and mares. as the featured event on the 12 race card which also includes the G2 Oaklawn Handicap for males 4up, and a nice MSW3 worth 93k. 

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For this precap we’re going to cover the featured stakes races, the MSW, and some other select races as I see fit.  The initial track is listed as muddy but there is almost no chance of rain today so it should dry out as we go along.  Download the free Oaklawn grid to follow along.

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R11 7:09ET 8.5f D AplBlsmH-G1 4 UP FM

Unfortunately, as has become the norm for big dirt races, there is only a short field of 6.  One probable reason for it this time is that the heavy favorite Monomoy Girl has never been beaten, and after a 1.5 year hiatus came back to continue winning in the BC Distaff.  She’s won on muddy tracks, including this one last out, but the dry track suits her best.

How do you get around her? You don’t.  To round out the super it looks like Swiss Skyiver, Letruska, and Getridofwhatailesu, in other words exact morning line order, and probable exact post time order.  Horrible betting race.

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R9 5:49ET 9f D OaklawnH-G2 4 UP 

At least we get 8 entries in this one, and only 3 of them won’t win.  Unfortunately the 5 contenders are all those with single digits.  Normally I just go with top LP in 9f races, except when there are only 3 horses with any early running tendencies. 

The earliest runner on average is Warrior’s Charge at 6-1, so that will serve as my top choice here.  His past 2 at this distance were 2^nd place in graded stakes, including this race last year.  He’s worth a win bet at anything more than 4-1.

The other early runners, Silver State and Express Train, would fill out my exacta box if I actually deem it worthy to bet at post time.  Then throw in top late runner Fearless and top power Owendale for the tri and super.  But you know, it may just not be worth betting.

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R8 5:09ET 8.5f D MSW 3 YO  93000

Again only 8 horses and looks quite chalky. I’d be surprised if at least 2 of the top 3 ML choices don’t finish in the tri, but I like Stiletto Boy to win it as does the oddsmaker.  He will simply be hard to catch.

But I’d also be surprised if one of the longshots doesn’t weave their way into the tri or super.  These are after all 3yo’s that can take large jumps up in class at any time, as we’ve seen many times this year.  James Madison?

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R4 2:42ET 6f D Md 30000 3 UP 

Scanning the rest of the grid for some value, another maiden race comes up.  New Dice 15-1 is tied for the highest PF and finished 2^nd 2 in a row. English Colony at 20-1 could make some noise but not sure why an English Channel gelding isn’t going on turf.

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R2 1:35ET 6f D Md 20000 3 UP FM

Yet another maiden race pops up.  3 close 2^nd’s in 3 career races would imply Tallandlong will probably win this time out. But you need more than one horse for a trifecta and super, and the rest of it is somewhat wide open.  Throw in Merlin’s Sister at 30-1 for some added excitement with the 1^st timer.

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That’s all the value possibilities I see today, as in anything that is or will go off at 5-1 or better.  Try to make something happen with the vertical wagers and hope for some of the 4-1 or 5-1 shots to get in there for some value. Good luck!

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Now is a great time to join the Weekend Winners Club, where you can get the Grid for all your favorite tracks every race day.  Just one month access (cancel anytime) would get you thru the Derby and Preakness and everything in between.  Check out the options right here.

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