Weekend Winners Club

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Saturday, April 24, 2021.  Pimlico is hosting their second biggest racing day of the year, with 6 stakes races and five 3yo contests, featuring the Federico Tesio, designed for horses training up to the Preakness Stakes. The Weber City Miss is the formal Pimlico prep for the Black Eyed Susan next month.  

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There are 11 races on the card and over 90 horses competing after morning scratches.  The weather in Baltimore is typical for this time of year, cloudy and cool with temps reaching the upper 60s.  The tracks are listed as fast and firm, so the MTO’s probably won’t run.  First you’ll want to download today’s Free Pimlico Grid here.  Morning scratches processed.

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R4 2:19ET 9f D OClm 35000n2x 3 UP 

I don’t see much value in the first 3 races so we’ll start here.  It looks quite chalky, but I’m giving 4 Workin On A Dream a good chance with top EP, first time around 2 turns. With only 7 entries, it’s unlikely his odds will hold up anywhere close to the 20-1 morning line but still might get double digits.

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R6 3:25ET 8.5f T DahliaB100k 3 UP FM

The top 2 favorites in this race look to have it locked up, but it takes more than 2 to complete a trifecta and superfecta.  Because there are only 2 fillies with QP over 4 in this race, I think Lagom at 20-1 ML could factor in.  Also in a turf route you always have to consider top LP, for which 1 Fed Up Fired Up is tied for tops at 20-1 ML.  3 Xanthique also has good LP and is an EP4.

Prediction:  6 9 3 1 10

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R7 3:58ET 6f D FrnkWhtlyB100k 3 UP 

The thing I like about this race is that it’s wide open.  I can make a case for the chalk as well as several long shots.  For example, Arthur’s Hope at 12-1 ML has top QP and top EP in a dirt sprint with not many early speed competitors. Lebda at 8-1 has 2^nd highest QP and EP, then Press My Bets at 12-1.  In fact, the only one I don’t see possibly hitting the board, I won’t mention because then he will find his way into the super and make me look like an idiot.  I can foresee a lot of wheeling and dealing in this superfecta, but I do think 5 Whereshetoldmetogo will win it at low odds unfortunately.

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R8 4:31ET 8.5f T HenryClrkL100k 3 UP 

Again the chalk looks legit, but in a turf route I’m not going to ignore the 5 Ninety One Assault at 8-1 with top LP.  Nor can I overlook the 6 Dinar with top EP and high PF going at 20-1 ML, first time on turf.  Early runner Papal Law at 20-1 ML can factor in also considering there’s no true front runner.  Again, wide open race.

Prediction:  4 7 6 5 1 2

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R9 5:04ET 8.5f D WebrCtyMsB125k 3 YO F

The short field of 6 after morning scratches is not very appetizing, but it will be interesting to see what the odds of 6 Exogen at ML 15-1 will end up at.  She could be quite dangerous first time at 2 turns, and again this race looks somewhat open. 

Prediction:  5 7 6 4

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R10 5:37ET 9f D FdrcoTesoB125k 3 YO 

This is the widest open 8 horse race I’ve seen in a while.  I can make a case for each entrant but that would take up an entire page.  The fact that Tiz Mandate has top LP with odds of 12-1 ML is interesting. I think Zertz at 20-1 got a bad ride in his first route race, because it doesn’t measure up to his prior 2 races and I think he’ll improve.  Shackled Love with twice the ML odds than Maythehorsebewithu makes no sense.  Definitely some wheeling and dealing is in order here.

Prediction:  Utter Chaos

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R11 6:07ET 5f T KTLthrbryB100k 3 UP 

The last race of the day also offers some good value, with 11 mostly competitive entries. Note that of the top for EP ratings include 6 Love You Much, an S2 at 12-1 ML and So Street at 6-1.  It’s hard to imagine the late runners taking a 5f turf race, but just in case, 10 and 13 have 30-1 and 50-1 ML’s. 

Prediction:  7 8 5 6 10 13

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That’s it for today’s analysis.  Stay tuned for more great analysis and info.  Next week we shall have a new Kentucky Derby analysis article every day of the week for a different aspect of the race, so keep your bookmark set on Kentucky Derby Central.

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Remember, you can get The Grid for all your favorite tracks and races right here, sign up anytime, no commitment, cancel anytime.  It’s a great time to join the Weekend Winners Club, with the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont coming up all within the next 2 months.

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Good luck!

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