Weekend Winners Club

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April 27, 2021.  In this year’s Kentucky Derby training series, we will review some handicapping elements used to select your top horses for the big race.  How important are trainers and jockeys in the Kentucky Derby?  Answer: they both have significant impact values in this race. 

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Consider this:  In the 6 editions of the Derby from 2015-2020, only one jockey and one trainer won it fo the first time.  The rest of them were ALL repeat offenders, most notably Baffert with 3 of the 6 wins.  Victor Espinoza and John Velazquez each had 2 wins during that span. 

Bold indicates a repeat winner, blue a multiple repeater. In the past 14 runs for the roses, you can see that 5 trainers were repeat winners, and 9 jockeys were winning it for the second or third time.  This does seem to favor the more experienced Kentucky Derby horsemen does it not?

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There are reasons why some trainers and jockeys are hoarding the Derby wins.  First and foremost, in general the top percentage trainers get the best horses, and the top winning jockeys get the best mounts.  So, many of the same trainers and jockeys end up in this race every year, and win again.

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We put together a concise little chart of the field to make it easier for you to see.  Again in blue we have horsemen that have already won the Roses before.  In fact all of the trainers in blue are repeat winners already. 

Also in bold but not tinted, are top horsemen that have either won a Triple Crown race or are so highly accomplished, that it would be surprising to NOT see them in the Derby winner’s circle before they retire.  That’s not to say the remaining horsemen are not capable, just not as likely.

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You can see from the chart that the top horses in this year’s contest, in terms of points or odds, for the most part have highly accomplished trainers and jockeys.  Also note that the Win and ITM columns for such trainer stats corroborate this notion.

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Note that the favorite would be a first time winning trainer, but one that has been winning a lot of big races over the past year.  The same could be said perennially for Chad Brown and Asmussen, who is hard to believe hasn’t won this race yet.

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Thus endeth today’s lesson about trainers and jocks. Stay tuned to Kentucky Derby Central for another lesson every day this week, and try to keep up. This week goes by rapidly and furiously every year.

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Get the Derby Grid with over 80 different factors including historical, pedigree, and performance, to help you get the right winner this year.

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You’re welcome.  Good luck.

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