Weekend Winners Club

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April 28, 2021.  In this edition of the Kentucky Derby Lessons, we shall cover the major prep races leading up to the Derby, and their inherent relativism.  We will focus on the Baffert Era which began in 1997 when he won the Kentucky Derby in two consecutive years.

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Obviously, the final prep race for these contestants is important to tune up for the Derby, but it is also a very important factor in determining if they can actually win the big one. It may not surprise you that the last 10 Kentucky Derby winners ALL won their final prep, and in 9 cases it was a Big 6 final prep.

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In the 24 race span from 1997-2020, the Kentucky Derby winner had won their final prep 67% of the time, and another 25% were runners up in their final prep, making it an astounding 92% that were top 2 in their final prep.  Only 2 winners weren’t top 2; they finished 4^th in their final prep.

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In only 4 of the 24 races (17%), was the final prep for the winner not a Big 6 Prep.  To define that, it’s one of the 6 Grade 1 or 2 races leading up to the Derby.  In modern terms since the point system was invented, it’s a G1 or G2 worth 100 points (or more) leading up to the Run for the Roses.  Take a look:

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(Last year the races in question were quite different, because everything last year was out of whack, including the running of the Belmont, Travers, and Haskell before the Kentucky Derby.  The usual Big 6 races were either cancelled or run several months beforehand.  We’re back to normal this year.)

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This grid also shows that the Ky Derby runner up also finished 1 or 2 in their final prep the vast majority of the time.  79% of the horses running 1 and 2 in the Kentucky Derby also ran 1 or 2 in their final prep, and in 85% of the races, their final prep was a Big 6 race.

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Thus, a major predictor of a winner or runner up finish in the Kentucky Derby, is that they finished 1^st or 2^nd in their final Prep, and the value increases if it was a Big 6 prep, which is why it is a critical criteria in the Derby Grid and also in any study attempting to predict a Derby champ.

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Note that 11 of the12 this year are participants in the run for the roses, so we only narrowed the field down by about half.  But considering the last 10 champs all actually won their final prep, we can most likely narrow it down to the Big 6 winners just using this study.  
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In further Derby Lessons we’ll continue to narrow it down beyond that, so stay tuned each day.
😀

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To get the Kentucky Derby Grid with over 80 historical, pedigree, and critical criteria, check here.

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