Weekend Winners Club

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April 29, 2021.  In today’s Derby lesson we will be analyzing the performance figures for the Kentucky Derby contestants.  Performance or speed figures indicate how well a horse performed in their prior races, and while some vendor’s PF’s are better than others, none of them are infallible.

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We will primarily look at the Grid PF’s since that’s what we manufacture here, but also included are Beyers because they are publicly available for the Derby horses on the DRF site. Beyers are the oldest type of speed figures ever made, and still have some relevance today.  

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Check out the mini-grid below.  The Grid PF’s are labeled PF1, 2, etc, appropriately. A full Grid has PF’s for the past 10 races and composites on the right.  For this purpose, we also have Beyers on the right labeled with By1,2 3.  The full legend is available below the Grid for the color coding etc. 

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So let’s apply this methodology to this year’s race at hand.  You will notice that Highly Motivated, Essential Quality, and Rock Your World have the best 2 of 3 PF average according to the Grid.  You can see the next two are Soup and Sandwich, and Hot Rod Charlie.

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Beyer Elimination Method.  The last column shows the results of this elimination method.  You take the highest low BF in the last 3 races as the comparative figure.  The other horses must be able to match or beat this in their last 3 races in order to be a BEM contender. We now have 8 contenders that can beat or match the 95 from Essential Quality.

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What I propose to narrow it down even further is a modified Grid Elimination Method (GEM*) if you will, and it has a nice ring to it.   Take the last 3 races and use highest low Grid PF of that set as the standard.  Now they have to beat or match the 95 of Highly Motivated.  6 horses qualify on the GEM.

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Now if we combine the BEM and GEM contenders, we have narrowed it down to only 4 horses.  Wouldn’t that be nice?  They are:  Essential Quality, Highly Motivated, Rock Your World, and Hot Rod Charlie.  There is good reason to believe the actual Derby winner will come from this group.

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Backing it up from our Derby 211 lesson is that they all have high percentage trainers, including Doug O, a two time Derby winner, and 4 prior Derby winning trainers (if you include Prat who won by a ridiculous DQ in 2020).  That gives us even more ammo to believe 1 of these 4 will win it.

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You will also notice that these 4 steeds are all top 5 in lowest morning line odds, proving that Mike Battaglia knows what the hell he’s talking about.  The other top 5 odds horse is Known Agenda, who fits the GEM method but missed the Beyer by 1 point.  Needless to say, he’ll be in my exotics.

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If we were able to publish the Bris figures, which is not possible because I’ve been threatened by sleazy lawyers, we would see that the Bris Elimination Method would narrow it down further to only 3, eliminating Hot Rod Charlie.  I personally refuse to do that, but take it for what it is.

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As with other methods in this Derby lesson series, we are able to narrow it down to 4 possible winners and a few other key horses to use in the exotics.  Combined with those other aspects, is how we will arrive at our final exotic bets, both horizontal and vertical.

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Thus endeth today’s lesson.  Stay tuned to this same channel for tomorrow’s surprise lesson.

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You can get the full Derby Grid with much more information and composite figures here.  It’s also a great time to join the WWC because if you join this week, you will automatically get all the Derby, Oaks, and Preakness materials, and everything else in between, including great stakes racing at all your favorite tracks..  Check out the options here.

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