Weekend Winners Club

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April 30, 2021.  It’s only a day before the Kentucky Derby, so it’s time to get all your horses in a row so you can avoid the mad scramble and get your bets in ahead of time. Today we take a look at pedigree and how these horses should stack up.

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We’re going to cover all 20 contestants fastly and furiously, so look at the following chart first to see everything in a nutshell before we continue. You have the horse listed with the sire, sireline, dam, and dosage profile. Then the sire offspring average win distance, same for dam, and mud win% for sire crop.

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In past years, we were most heavily focused in on the RAN sireline, which is still very relevant, but AP Indy got on the board 2 years in a row in 2013, then In Excess got a winner, and Storm Cat finally, posthumously, had a Derby winner from his sireline with Justify and another with Authentic, proving once and for all that he’s the greatest sire of all time.

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Still, the RAN sireline has claimed 3 of the past 6 Kentucky Derby victories, and 58% of the winners from 1995 to present.  Now take a look at this chart where you can see the sireline from every Triple Crown Race winner from 1995- present to see what I’m talking about. 

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What you can discern is that the AP Indy sireline is now just as legit as that of RAN, and with the other Northern Dancer winners, the Storm Cat sireline is not just for sprinters anymore.  What typically matters more for distance is the mares they mate them to, and the longer AWD the better.

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Thus, the average winning distance is a telling matter.  If you were just to look at the dosage profiles, you would come up with Essential Quality, who covers every other base, and then Hidden Stash followed by King Fury, some good  long shots to include in your exotic bets.

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Including the rest of the pedigree profile, including AWD’s, now we have Rock Your World, Brooklyn Strong, Dynamic One, Hidden Stash, Soup and Sandwich, and Essential Quality.  There’s Hidden Stash Again, he could be a hidden gem in your exotics.  And EQ is completely validated in every study.

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It’s quite clear from this study that they all have excellent pedigrees top to bottom. In fact, I rated none of them less than B.  By far, most of the sires and grandsires involved are Triple Crown race winners or Breeders’ Cup winners, or have sired such winners. 

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Tomorrow: Don’t miss the famous Derby for Dummies where we put all these lessons together and come up with 3 of the 4 in the Derby superfecta, and hopefully even get that other long shot bugger that crashes the party.

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All of this information, and much more, is included in the Kentucky Derby Grid, with a limited amount still set for sale this week. It’s also a great time to join the Weekend Winners Club, since your first month gets you all Derby and Preakness materials and everything in between.  No hassle cancels, just login to Paypal and click cancel whenever you want. One full month access still guaranteed.

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