Loading ...May 13 2021
Preakness Precap: Top Kentucky Derby and Preakness horses, 1997-Present
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Friday, May 13, 2021. Preakness is upon us again, barely 6 months after the 2020 edition. Thus it is time once again for our annual study on the top Kentucky Derby and Preakness horses during the Baffert Era, which began officially in 1997 although he was training well before that.
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This exercise is important because it clues you in on how to bet the Preakness. The first graphic below illustrates how the top 4 Kentucky Derby finishers did in the Preakness. Take a good look and then we’ll review the findings.
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The first thing you will notice is that of the last 22 Kentucky Derby champions that ran in the Preakness, half of them won it. Only 3 from that group finished out the top 4 in the Preakness. 2 of those 3 were Pletcher trainees, worth noting in the future, primarily because Todd has never won this race.
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Bob Baffert on the other hand, has an excellent record in this race, with 7 Preakness winners in the Era named after him. In fact, last year was his only Preakness loss with a Derby champion, when his Authentic finished a close second.
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You will also notice that the other top 4 Kentucky Derby finishers also have an excellent record in the Preakness, with 40 out of the 52 runners finishing in the top 4. But alas, Medina Spirit is the only one running in this year’s 2nd leg. So let’s move on to the next graphic.
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From this chart you can see what the actual top Preakness finishers did in the Derby if they actually ran for the roses. Recently in the last 7 years, you can see that a slight majority, just over half of the top 4 Preakness runners actually did not run in the Derby. That is expected this year as well since only 3 Derby competitors are entered in the 10 horse field.
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But also note that of the Preakness winners that did run for the roses, all of them but one finished top 6 in the Derby. And, only one runner up and 3rd place finisher were not from the top 7 in Kentucky. Thus, we have to consider the 3 Derby runners this year, all top 7, as key horses.
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The next problem is what to do with all the dnr’s, which make up 7 of the 10 Preakness competitors. That’s the million dollar question, but the good news is there are almost always long shots in the trifecta. In only 4 years of the 24 year Baffert Era has there not been a double digit dog in the tri, and often there are two.
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So who do you pick for the long shots?  The Lukas winner is tempting, but I’m looking at the Preakness Grid and there’s a horse from one of the nation’s top trainers, who has both the highest PF overall and the top LP calculation.Â
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Past that and the two Baffert trainees, it’s tough to figure out who else will appear in the super. It may be best to wheel all at the bottom, but you also have to key the Derby horses along with that and try to figure out the best long shot which I already did. So get the Grid and make your picks!
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