Weekend Winners Club

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May 26, 2021.  The Belmont Stakes is now 10 days away and we’re evaluating 10 horses competing for the last leg of the Triple Crown, which was the first leg last year, but that’s another story.  The contestants are of course, possibles and probables only, as nothing will be official for another week.

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But it’s never too early, especially if you have access to Belmont Stakes futures for example.  The odds posted herein are listed in the futures for Betonline.ag, a reputable offshore sportsbook that has somehow eluded shutdown by the government for over a decade now.  

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So far what we can gather is that 6 Kentucky Derby contestants will take on two Preakness runners including champion Rombauer.  A Peter Pan runner and this year’s UAE Derby champion are slated to join the fray as well.

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First what you’ll want to do is take a look at the Belmont Stakes Grid, which you can download below.  The 10 possible contestants are listed alphabetically, with performance figures toward the left and composites on the right. 

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To start off this analysis, I first ranked my top 6 as usual, based on all the information in the Grid.  And I came up with the exact order of the early odds for those 6.  That’s not much help, is it?  But they are all very similar in class and capability, so the fact is any of these could win.

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Third and Fourth place Kentucky Derby contestants Hot Rod Charlie and Essential Quality (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner who was undefeated in 5 previous races) are clearly the ones to beat.  Along with Preakness winner Rombauer who rolled by the Derby winner in the stretch with ease.

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Then you have Rock Your World and Known Agenda, who were on top of the world after their final preps, before flopping in the Derby.  Add Rebel’s Romance, who laid waste to the UAE Derby field by 5.5 lengths in late March, and I give him a real legit chance to win here.

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Are there any other contestants?  Yes, but it literally depends on the weather.  The top PF in the field, whether you use the Grid or Bris numbers, clearly belongs to Brooklyn Strong, a number that by far exceeds his other PF’s.  This was achieved down the street at a sloppy Aqueduct track, before he too, flopped in the Derby.

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Of course, it’s too early right now to say exactly what the weather will be for next week, but if you’re Daniel Velasquez, Jose Ortiz, or Mark Schwartz, you’re definitely hiring local rain dancers for the weekend beginning Friday June 4.  If the track ends up sloppy, you have to add this one to the top.

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If the track stays dry on the other hand, you could add Bourbonic to your exotics, and you should wheel him at the 4 spot anyway.  Todd has a good record in this race and brings a horse whose last win was a last to first win in the Wood at Aqueduct, before a dismal Derby.

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If it’s sounding like you need to wheel all at the bottom of the superfecta, well that’s normally what I do, unless the field is extremely large and the bet is $1 minimum.  But with a field of 10 and a dime super minimum, it’s no problem to wheel all at that slot. 

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There is almost no speed at all in this race, so you have to give a bump to any horse with a tendency to run early.  Read:  Essential Quality, Rock Your World.  That’s how I see it unfolding right now, 10 days early.  My top pick remains EQ.

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You can get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races, every race day right here.  Check out the Belmont Stakes specials here.

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