Loading ...Jun 01 2021
Belmont Stakes Precap: A new take after the Post Draw with ML’s and posts
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Tuesday, June 1, 2021. The Belmont Stakes had its post draw today with official posts and morning lines issued. As luck (or lack thereof) would have it, we lost another good long shot. Last week we lost Brooklyn Strong and this week UAE Derby winner Rebel’s Romance is out.
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So now all 5 of the main contenders of the 8 horse field are at single digit odds on the morning line. The only 2 contenders over 5-1 are suspect, but if they run like their final Kentucky Derby prep instead of their horrid Ky Derby performances they have a chance. Look at the Belmont Grid here to follow along.
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We’re talking of course about Florida Derby winner Known Agenda and Santa Anita Derby winner Rock Your World. The latter is quite green and it is somewhat amazing he won the SA Derby in his first dirt race in the first place, but it was legit, as he did beat Ky Derby winner Medina Spirit in that race.
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Known Agenda on the other hand, has a more proven track record. He finished 3rd in the Remsen at 9f in his 3rd career race, and after a poor Sam Davis, came back to win an OCM by 11 lengths and then the Florida Derby, in which he beat Greatest Honour who was undefeated at the time.
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Todd also has a great record in this race, certainly his best of the 3 Triple Crown races. He has 2 Kentucky Derby wins and 0 Preakness wins, and 3 Belmont Stakes wins including 2 of the past 8, so you have to consider his top steed a legitimate contender here.
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Todd also trains Overtook into the race. A wild card for sure but he has shown steady improvement. In Overtook’s only race with a fast pace, he broke maiden at a mile at Aqueduct. In his last two, both slow-paced, he showed a strong late kick and finished in the money in the two G3’s.
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Again with a Pletcher trainee we have Bourbonic, who looked excellent going into the Kentucky Derby with a last to first Wood Memorial win, but showed nothing in the Derby. Back in the Big Apple where he has 2 wins and a 2nd, he could make some noise here for sure.
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So Todd’s trainees now make up 37.5% of the field, but not the best contenders, who are the 3 entries listed at under 5-1. I don’t really expect his two long shots to win, but either could definitely hit the board, and with 3 of the 8 entries, Todd has a good chance of getting two in the superfecta.
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That would mean of course, that at least one of Essential Quality, Rombauer, and Hot Rod Charlie would have to run a subpar race. This is entirely possible, considering they’re 3yo’s going through a grueling Triple Crown Trail. And there’s only 1 Belmont I remember where they finished in exact betting order, because I had that straight superfecta.
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One point of interest is the Flavien Prat situation. As we know, Prat rode Rombauer to a Preakness victory in his first time riding the creature. However in the Belmont he will appear aboard Hot Rod Charlie, who finished a close 3rd, only 1 length from a Kentucky Derby victory.
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So there you have it, the 3 main contenders, and some mid and long shots to consider to round out your exotic bets. In the verticals I’ll probably just use the top 3 but we’ll see how the other races pan out when the data become available. The only one I throw out completely is the Dubai non-contender.
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You can get the full Belmont Grid for both race days of June 4 and June 5 right here. Check out the additional options for subscribing to the Weekend Winner’s Club and enjoy the Grid for more summer racing.
