Loading ...Feb 04 2022
Delta Downs Discussion: Preemptive Precap and Picks for Premier Day Ponies. Sat.Feb.5
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Friday, February 4, 2022 Vinton, LA. Delta Downs will have the most stakes races of any track this month, all in one day! On Saturday Feb.5 they will run 10 stakes races usually known as Louisiana Premier Night in various categories with purses ranging from $60k to $150k on the 11 race card.
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It’s scheduled to be quite chilly, with the day beginning below freezing, after a cold front moves in today. So they have preemptively switched to a daytime card starting at noon local time, 1PM ET. For this year at least, it will be Louisiana Premier Day. Get the free Delta Grid here to make your picks!
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Last week we gave you the Gulfstream Grid and long shot specials for Pegasus World Cup day. Unfortunately the stakes races all wound up with favorites in top two spots and not much money to win. In fact, the late Pick 4 paid only $24. Ugh.
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But we did get a couple big hits earlier in the day, beginning in the first race with our Super Long Shot Special of the day getting 2nd at 44-1! Despite a favorite winning, the $1 Exacta paid $183 and 50-cent Trifecta paid $606. Not a bad start to the day.
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Why was that our LSS? Well if you look at the free Grid for that day, it was a contentious race and our super LSS had top LP, not by much, and also the top PF overall, and the top pair of PF’s. We thought transferring to the artificial surface for the first time would do him well.
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Later in Race 6, our LSS Wolfie’s Dynaghost won at 20-1. You can see in the Grid that he had one of the top PF’s last race out, and had top EP. The top EP rating always bodes well for an E8 frontrunner, and the fact that he was a lone such frontrunner is a great factor as well.
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The week before that for recap, we provided the Fairgrounds Grid and analysis. For the featured Lecomte Stakes, our top LSS Call Me Midnight won at 28-1 for some great payouts. An easy $182 Exacta payout and $300 for the trifecta. The super was also simple and got $134 for the dime.
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We also had some assorted LSS hits earlier in the day, especially
in race 6 where the fireworks began to fly.
We called out 3 long shots at 8-1 and they finished 1st 2nd
and 3rd.
Exacta $364
Trifecta $1076
Dime super $556
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Those picks were all made a couple days beforehand of the race day. This week, we’re going to wait and see what the track looks like and who scratches before finalizing analysis. Stay tuned right here on this page for the long shot specials of the day!
Let’s go race by race to cover every base. Keep in mind that Timothy Thornton is the #1 rider here by far. Almost 90 more mounts than 2nd place Dominguez, and he has over 100 wins while nobody else has more than 50. So throw him in there and instead of flipping a coin on the horse, take a top 12 rider.
| 1 | Timothy Thornton |
| 2 | Joel Dominguez |
| 3 | Joe Stokes |
| 4 | Alex Birzer |
| 5 | Jose Andres Guerrero |
| 6 | C.J. McMahon |
| 7 | Vicente Del-Cid |
| 8 | Kevin Roman |
| 9 | Ty Kennedy |
| 10 | Gerard Melancon |
| 11 | Thomas L. Pompell |
| 12 | Casey Fusilier |
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R1 1:00ET 5f D PrmBnTmSt50k 4 UP FM
It’s only 5f but there’s a lot of early speed so I’ll take a late runner too. 5 looks like the best value play.
Predict: 9 4 19 6 5 LSS 6 5
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R2 1:28ET 5f D PremMtrnB100k 4 UP FM
No value here at all. If 4 Cilla at 6-5 doesn’t run her usual, 8 or 5 will be there. Single 4
Predict: 4 8 5
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R3 1:56ET 7.5f D MSW 3 YO 38000
Maidens. Anything could happen. First time starter looks good against proven losers.
Predict: 9 7 8 1 5 6 LSS: 8 1 5
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R4 2:26ET 5f D PrmRgCjSt50k 4 UP
5 furongs, 6 horses, only two early runners. Gotta have someone for 3rd but don’t bet this one.
Predict: 4 5 6 7
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R5 2:56ET 8f D PremStarB100k 3 YO F
A good amount of early speed on paper but first at two turns, they may be hard rated.
Predict: 5 9 1 2 3 LSS 3
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R6 3:26ET 8f D PremLdys60k 4 UP FM
Not much value here but some decent mid shots in the 5-6 range.
Predict: 5 1 9 2 3
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R7 3:56ET 5f D PremSprtB100k 4 UP
Down to 7 horses after they realized Bertie’s Galaxy is not a scratch. Two horse race.
Predict: 9 7
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R8 4:26ET 8f D PremDstfB125k 4 UP FM
It’s Fort Polk’s to win or lose this one and looks chalky with TT riding Net a Bear.
Predict: 5 4 8 1 9 LSS 9
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R9 4:56ET 8f D PremPrncB100k 3 YO
Louisiana Juvenile winner Unified Report will likely run closer to that performance than last out in G3.
Predict: 8 9 6 10 2 1 LSS 10 2
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R10 5:26ET 8.5f D PrmChampB150k 4 UP
It’s tough to look past the top two but if you want to craft an exotic here’s who to use underneath.
Predict: 3 2 9 6 5 1 LSS 9 6 5
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R11 5:56ET 8.5f D PremGtlm60k 4 UP
There’s no way Bistraya will be 12-1 or more than 5-1 for that matter at post time. Bet him anyway.
Predict: 11 9 4 10 1 2 LSS 11 9 2
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That’s it. You’ve got the Grid and all the picks. Now go win some bucks!
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Did you know, you can get the Grid for ALL your favorite tracks and race days, right here. Just pick the option that’s best for you.
