Weekend Winners Club

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Friday February 11, 2022.  Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 3 opened today, so it’s a good time to release the next Derby Dozen and One Top 25 rankings for male 3yo’s.  It’s been 3 weeks since the Future Pool 2 and the last Top 25 but a few things have changed.

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Since then, Messier blasted out a 15 length win in his 3yo debut for Baffert in a huge big Bob Lewis G3 win, earning him the highest Beyer of any 3yo.  In fact, he also got the highest Brisnet and Equibase figure for that effort as well, making last year’s Los Al Futurity loss seem like ancient history.

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It should be no surprise then that the field, “All Other 3yo’s” is now the heavily bet favorite in Pool 3, since it does not include any horses trained by Baffert, which is ridiculous because Baffert doesn’t own the horses.  4 Baffert trainees occupy our top 5 in the DDDDDD.  Maybe we should just call it 6D.

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It gets kind of shaky after the top 14 since many of them have not competed yet this year, and it is unknown when they will resume racing.  Generally speaking, at least 3 of the top 4 Ky Derby finishers are found in the top 12 of this list year after year.  Without further ado, here it is.

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Doug's Down and Dirty Derby Double Dozen Feb.11 2022

DD	Horse	Fri	ST	Sire	Trainer
1	Corniche	0.4	E8	Quality Road	Baffert Bob
2	Messier	0.4	EP7	Messier	Baffert Bob
3	Jack Christopher	0.4	EP6	Munnings	Brown Chad C
4	Smile Happy	13	P4	Runhappy	Mcpeek Kenneth G
5	Newgrange	0.4	EP6	Violence	Baffert Bob
6	Slow Down Andy	36	EP6	Nyquist	O'neill Doug
7	Shipsational	0.4	EP7	Midshipman	Barker Edward
8	Call Me Midnight	67	S0	Midnight Lute	Desormeaux Keith
9	Emmanuel	50	E6	More Than Ready	Pletcher Todd A
10	Epicenter	39	E8	Not This Time	Asmussen Steven M
11	White Abarrio	18	EP7	Race Day	Joseph Saffie A Jr
12	Rattle N Roll	37	P2	Connect	Mcpeek Kenneth G
13	Pappacap	42	EP6	Gun Runner	Casse Mark
14	Mo Donegal	12	P4	Uncle Mo	Pletcher Todd A
15	Giant Game	0.4	E5	Giant's Causeway	Romans Dale
16	Commandperformance	68	S3	Union Rags	Pletcher Todd A
17	Simplification	87	E8	Not This Time	Sano Antonio
18	Varatti	0.4	E6	Into Mischief	Pletcher Todd A
19	Major General	82	EP4	Constitution	Pletcher Todd A
20	Barber Road	96	P3	Race Day	Ortiz John Alexander
21	Zandon	61	P6	Upstart	Brown Chad C
22	Classic Causeway	49	E6	Giant's Causeway	Lynch Brian A
23	Make It Big	99	EP6	Neolithic	Joseph Saffie A Jr
24	Tiz The Bomb	0.4	P1	Hit It A Bomb	Mcpeek Kenneth G
25	High Oak	0.4	P6	Gormley	Mott William I
26	Dash Attack	0.4	EP2	Munnings	Mcpeek Kenneth G
27	Chasing Time	32	EP7	Not This Time	Asmussen Steven M
28	Trafalgar	0.4	EP4	Lord Nelson	Stall Albert M Jr
29	Courvoisier	0.4	EP8	Tapit	Breen Kelly J

Sort table by any column.

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You can see now that the Dozen is very Baffert top-heavy, and that they all have Friday evening odds of 4-5 since they’re part of the field.  Pletcher brings up the second half of the Top 25 with several high potential runners.

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Next we’ll take a look at the Futures Pool 3 action with the morning line odds as seen at pool opening.  Remember the pool closes at the end of Friday and Saturday, and the last call is 6pm on Sunday. Odds are locked in at the end of each day. 

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Note that the horses highlighted in red are running in the Sam Davis G3 stakes at Tampa tomorrow, Saturday the 12^th.  As luck would have it, my top pick for that race is Shipsational, who does not appear as an entry in the Pool.  We’ll see if his rank of #7 in the dozen has merit. Stay tuned for Saturday’s Sam Davis precap.

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Kentucky Derby Central has all the Ky Derby point standings and prep race schedule with results.

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