Loading ...Feb 12 2022
Ky Derby Prep Alert! Sam F Davis G3 Tampa Bay Downs Precap + Bonus Coverage…
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Saturday, February 12, 2022. Tampa Bay Downs jumps into the Kentucky Derby prep series with the Sam Davis G3 today, a prep worth $250k and 17 Kentucky Derby points (10-4-2-1). 12 horses are entered after the morning scratch of Howling Time, one of 23 individual Derby Futures Pool entries.
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11 races are scheduled with over 111 runners to compete, including 2 other stakes races which we’ll break down as well. First you’ll want to download today’s FREE Tampa Bay Grid to follow along. Just click the link, no need to enter email or anything, no strings attached. Watch out for those long shot specials (LSS)!
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R10 4:54ET 8.5f D SFDavis-G3 3 YO
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Shipsational (6-1) is my top pick, one of two in the field with 2 stakes wins and 3 wins. He’s 3 of 4 for Ed Barker with the 2 stakes victories coming in NY state restricted races last fall. Not an LSS because he’ll likely be 4-1 or less by post time. He has the top two PF’s in the field, both on dirt, one on slop, and currently ranked 7th in the Derby Double Dozen.
Classic Causeway (3-1) headlines the field after two strong ITM graded stakes Keeneland finishes last year at Keeneland following a debut maiden win. This will be his first start of the year for Brian Lynch.
Strike Hard (6-1) is looking good after breaking maiden then coming in 2nd in the Mucho Macho Man stakes in January. Not much is known about trainer Matt Williams.
Unpredictable Bay (20-1) qualifies as a Super LSS! And he’s my 3rd choice. He comes off 3 strong maiden runs at Churchill, finally breaking the win at 6f last out for Ali Alnaz. He has top EP and 2nd best dirt PF’s.
Make it Big (9-2) is the other one with 3 wins and two stakes wins, coming off a Springboard Mile win in December for his first Derby points. His PF’s aren’t great but he’s 3 for 3 and should step up for Saffie.
God of Love (10-1) will not go off at more than 6-1, coming off a Grey G3 win on poly at Woodbine last year. It will be his first try on dirt for Mark Casse, but he has top LP in a race chalk full of speed, and everyone knows it.
Wild Cards:
There are several long shots that can complete the superfecta should one of the above falter, but they will need to step up in class: Trademark, Volcanic, Kitten Mischief, Little Vic.
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R8 3:49ET 8.18f D SuncoastL150k 3 YO F
The filly version of the Sam Davis is run at 8.2f for $150k in purse.
Nest (3-5) At first glance, it looks like Nest is the only possible winner after winning the Demoiselle G2 in December for Todd Pletcher. That may be true but there are a couple other contestants.
Princess Elm (12-1) is my 2nd pick and top LSS, coming off a first out maiden win last month right here at Tampa for Ali Alnaz, achieving the 2nd best dirt PF in the field behind the favorite, at 6f.
Alittleloveandluck (5-1) will be the public second choice, after notching two straight wins, one on poly and a stakes win on turf. The elusive dirt victory looms.
Peaceful Surprise (10-1) LSS also won at first ask right here at Tampa last month at this distance.
Ha Penny (8-1) will round out the super if one of the above doesn’t.
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R7 3:18ET 6f D PelicanL100k 4 UP
This one looks very chalky and shouldn’t go further than the top 3 betting choices for the win, and the next two to round out the super. Not a good betting race.
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For the rest of the races , use whoever has the best numbers in the Grid, and your brain, and try to get some good action to bankroll your Superbowl bets tomorrow.
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BONUS! El Camino Real Derby at 7:30PM ET Golden Gate.
11 runners will go 9f on the San Fran polytrack course for $100k and 17 Kentucky Derby points up for grabs (10-4-2-1), same as the Sam Davis G3. The race is favored Mackinnon’s to lose but there are some other possible contenders.
Mackinnon (8-5) is tops in every category except EP, which is expected for a midpack runner. First time on poly but no reason to think he won’t handle it after excellent turf and dirt races. Doug-O also brings 10-1 Del Mo into the fray as a deep closer but the pace doesn’t look to set up for him.
Blackadder (7-2) gives Baffert a solid contender after breaking his maiden last out. A solid midpack runner that should step up in class.
Stormy Samurai (8-1) has the best polytrack figure, achieved last out in a Golden Gate win. First time at two turns. LSS alert!
Il Bellator (20-1) Super LSS alert! Got the 2nd best poly PF last out in a GG win.
Boise (9-5) may have trouble with his late running style in a race without a lot of early speed.
Nuestro Engreido (20-1) Super LSS! The lack of early speed could make the EP8 tough to run down.
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Good luck!
