Loading ...Apr 02 2022
Gulfstream and Oaklawn Precap: Fla Derby & Arkansas Derby highlight 15 stakes races; Grid
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April 2, 2022. Gulfstream Park has its biggest race day of the year with 10 stakes races, 6 graded, highlighted by the Grade 1 $1M Curlin Florida Derby featuring 11 top east coast three year olds. Oaklawn Park will run 5 stakes races, 3 graded including the G1 $1.25 Arkansas Derby with 9 of the top 3yos in the southeast.
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| Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa (G1) | GP |
| Cutler Bay S | GP |
| Ghostzapper S (G3) | GP |
| Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) | GP |
| Kitten’s Joy Appleton S (G3T) | GP |
| Orchid S (G3T) | GP |
| Pan American S (G2T) | GP |
| Sand Springs S Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance | GP |
| Sanibel Island | GP |
| Sir Shackleton S | GP |
| Arkansas Derby (G1) | OP |
| Carousel | OP |
| Fantasy S (G3) | OP |
| Oaklawn Mile (G3) | OP |
| Temperence Hill S | OP |
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It’s a very exciting day for the Road to the Roses, as both of these races offer Kentucky Derby points of 100-40-20-10 to the top 4 finishers, basically guaranteeing a run for the roses to the top two in each race, with 3rd and 4th getting a chance if they gain some points in other races.
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Oh I almost forgot, Turfway Park will run the Jeff Ruby Steaks G3. Yes it’s spelled that way for its sponsor, Jeff Ruby’s which is an excellent steakhouse that you should visit whenever in the area. The race is only worth 20 points to the winner but the $600k purse is nothing to scoff at.
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The weather at Gulfstream Park is warm and partly cloudy with the possibility of a little rain developing late in the day, which is when the Derby will be run. To add excitement, Gulfstream has a Jackpot Pick 6 carryover of 483k. Oaklawn weather will be in the 60s with no chance of rain.
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For the sake of brevity, we won’t break down all 15 stakes races, much less 27 races on both cards. But we shall break down both of the Derbies and provide some good long shot specials to use on a few other races. Today’s Gulfstream Grid is free so download here to follow along. Morning scratches out.
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R14 6:38ET 9f D FlaDerby-G1 3 YO
THE CHALK: There are 4 current virtual favorites here, the only 4 with single digit morning lines.
2 Classic Causeway 7-2 comes off two front running wins in the Tampa Derby G2 and Sam Davis G3, after showing good form last year with two ITM graded stakes efforts. Tops in Power and EP in the Grid
3 Simplification 5-2 has the highest PF overall in his maiden win at GP and last out had a great come from behind Fountain of Youth G2 win after finishing 2nd to White Abarrio in the Holy Bull G3. Virtual tie for top power.
6 Charge It 7-2 has a total of two races under his belt, breaking his maiden last out after losing by a neck. But both races were at a mile this and his PF’s are comparable to tops in the field. Plus, Pletcher.
7 White Abarrio 3-1 won the Holy Bull G3 in his only race this year, drawing away from Simplification. He showed promise last year breaking maiden first out at GP and 3rd in a G2 at CD. Just behind top 3 in power.
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So you can just box the top 4 and get a super low paying trifecta, right? That’s not a great idea, but in fact, seldom happens in this race anyway. Normally, a long shot with good speed finishes 2nd to break that up. Let’s look at the top candidates.
8 Cajun’s Magic 30-1 has the highest PF at over a mile in this field, and is tied for high EP. The high PF was achieved in a 400k stakes, one of 2 state restricted races in which he finished 2nd to Octane. Last out he faded to 5th in the Holy Bull, but it was his first race since September.
5 Pappacap 10-1 isn’t a super LSS but you can’t discount a horse that was 2nd in the BC Juvenile and 3rd in the Lecomte, despite his horrific fade to 8th in the Risen Star last out. But he may end up single digits.
1 Strike Hard 20-1 doesn’t have the greatest PF’s, but is a good come from behind runner. Unfortunately starting 11 lengths behind in the Sam Davis last out didn’t give him a chance, but he got a strong 2nd to Simplification in a stakes race before that.
9 O Captain 20-1 broke his maiden first out by 9 lengths at GP. In his first trip over a mile, he went from 11th to 3rd in the FOY G2 last month.
10 Clapton 30-1 will be discounted because he finished a distant 5th in his only route race, to Cajun’s Magic in the 400k FSNR. But he has steadily improved and could be ready for 2 turns again. He can run from on or off the pace.
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So you can see there are plenty of options to choose from here. I expect that at least 2 and probably 3 of the favorites will be part of the superfecta, but one of the above long shots will likely break up the chalk fest. My top pick is Cajun’s Magic which at 30-1 is a super long shot special.
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Scattered long shot specials:
Race 7: 6 at 30-1, 8 at 12-1
Race 8: any filly that hasn’t raced yet.
Race 9: 2 at 12-1.
Race 10: 4 at 10-1, 6 at 12-1, 7 at 10-1
Race 11: 4 at 12-1
Race 12: 1 at 12-1, 4 at 12-1
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The Arkansas Derby field of 9 has a lot of parity and possibilities, with the favorites not nearly as clear cut as the Florida Derby. Let’s take a look.
The chalk:
6 Secret Oath 5-2 is the actual morning line favorite coming off a pair of 7 length stakes victories and an 8 length $120k ALW win before that. The last win was in the Honeybee G3, which means, yes she’s a filly on fire for Wayne Lukas, whose latest great accomplishment was the great filly Azeri.
4 Doppelganger 3-1 hasn’t won this year since breaking maiden last year. Last out he got a semi-distant 2nd to Forbidden Kingdom in the San Felipe G2. Since then he’s been transferred from Baffert to Tim Yakteen as we predicted, in order to actually achieve Kentucky Derby points this month.
9 We The People won both his career races this year by 5 lengths, and no stakes racing so far, but his PF’s are very competitive with the field.
Next up:
5 Un Ojo 6-1 had a couple 2nd place stakes runs in NY and old one-eye wasted no time in his trip back south in Courville’s barn by winning the Rebel G2 last out. Normally that winner is favored here.
3 Barber Road 8-1 had a string of close 2nd place stakes finishes before an even closer 3rd last out, coming up a half length short to Un Ojo in the Rebel. His closing moves will improve at 9f especially if the pace gets hot.
8 Cyberknife 8-1 faded badly in his only stakes race but has been excellent in his other 4.
1 Kavod 15-1 has a string of 3 stakes races in which he faded to 4th, which he hopes to do again for 10 more Derby points.
7 Ben Diesel 15-1 has been up and down for no apparent reason and could run big
2 Chasing Time 12-1 didn’t do great in the Rebel but is usually competitive.
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So there’s the entire field for you. Of them, the top 5 are the only horses with real stakes cred, except for We The People who only has speed figure credentials. It’s still kind of wide open, but the great late running of Barber Road and Secret Oath will be tough to beat.
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Good luck!
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You can get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races right here so check out the options.
