Weekend Winners Club

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Saturday, April 9, 2022.  Keeneland continues it’s huge opening spring weekend with 5 graded stakes:  Commonwealth G3, Appalachian G2, Madison G1, Shakertown G2, and finally the Toyota Blue Grass G1 in which at least the top two finishers will stamp their Kentucky Derby ticket.

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Also today, the Santa Anita Derby G1 and Wood Memorial G2 and Aqueduct will be issuing at least two tickets each to the Kentucky Derby.  Forbidden Kingdom at SA is already in, but Messier and Taiba are looking to earn their first Derby Points in the SA Derby.  In the Wood, Morello is already in. These are the last 3 big Derby Prep races.

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Racing at Keeneland begins at 12:30PM ET with two MSW 100K’s and an OCM80k, all for 3yo’s, so we can see how they measure up to the big boys in the Blue Grass.  There are 11 races on the exciting card with over 115 horses slated to run, after morning scratches processed.  Stakes racing begins 2:45PM.

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Weather in Lexington is rather cold in the low 40’s and some light rain and light snow in the area.  We’ll break down the Blue Grass Stakes and a couple of other interesting races here. Get today’s Grid here (scratches removed) so you can follow along and make your own picks.  

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R9 5:10ET 9f D BlueGras-G1 3 YO 

A talented field of 11 compete for a $1M purse and 100-40-20-10 Kentucky Derby Points.  5 of them are in Derby Futures Pool 5 which closes today at 4:30PM so get your bets in BEFORE the Derby Prep races today. 6 of them

Smile Happy 9-5:  There’s not much to dislike about this favorite coached by Kenny McPeek. He only has 3 races but won the first two including a G2, then finished a strong closing 2^nd to Epicenter, who is the Derby Points leader.  He’s in Futures Pool at 6-1 ML.  It will be interesting to see what the good closer does with a fast pace up front.

Zandon 5-2 has two ITM finishes in G2’s but with only 14 points needs another ITM finish here for Chad Brown.  I think starting in last in the Risen Star didn’t enable him for the win. 20-1 ML in Pool 5.

Rattle N Roll 8-1 is McPeek’s other entry, and hasn’t been great this year so desperately needs some points.  But he returns to the track of his best career race, a win in the Breeders Futurity G1.

Ethereal Road 20-1 comes in after a ½ length loss in the Rebel G2, 1 race after finally breaking maiden on his 4^th try.  Can old Wayne Lukas pull some magic again?  50-1 in Pool 5 if you think so.

Commandperformance 12-1 ran in two G1 races last year, finishing well including a 2^nd in the Champagne, but is still a maiden after 4 races.  Last out Pletcher tried again in a 40k maiden and lost to Fenweick 20-1 who went gate to wire in his best career effort. 

Volcanic 20-1 is another good long shot special who could hit the board for Mark Casse.  He does nothing particularly great, but can run on or off the lead and continues to improve.

Emmanuel 9-2 is the other Pletcher entry, and I don’t really think he can win this race, but if they let him loose on the lead he could hold on for a piece.  Surprisingly he’s only 20-1 in Pool 5 ML.

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The above is how I see the order of finishing in this race.  You’ll want to consult the latest Double Derby Dozen before making your futures bets today.  Here’s how the Blue Grass contenders stand:

7 Smile Happy

14 Rattle N Roll

15 Zandon

21 Ethereal Road

22 Emmanuel

25 Command Performance

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In the Wood Memorial today, here’s how I like it:

5 Morello 8-5 (Pletcher)

1 Mo Donegal 5-2 (Pletcher)

3 Early Voting 5-2 (Chad Brown)

8 Barese 8-1 (Maker)

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Santa Anita Derby picks are as follows:

4 Messier 1-1 (Yakteen/Baffert)

6 Taiba 4-1 (Yakteen/Baffert)

3 Forbidden Kingdom 6-5 (Mandella)

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You can get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races, including the Kentucky Derby. Check it out.

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Good luck!

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