Loading ...Apr 15 2022
Sat.April 16: Lexington “Last chance at Derby” Stakes Precap. Endless Possibilities!
.
Friday, April 15, 2022. On Saturday, Keeneland will host the Grade 3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes, the last Derby Prep race and last chance at a Kentucky Derby ticket for 5 of the runners that already have Derby Points and are vying for their chance to run for the roses. Weather will reach the low 60s with not much chance of rain at all.
.
The Lexington not only offers a $400k purse, but also 20-8-4-2 points to the top 4 finishers. If you look at the points chart, Tawny Port is currently dangling precariously at the final #20 position with 40 points and the least earnings of any in the 40 club. All he would have to do is finish top 4 and his slot is assured.
.
But that scenario is far from guaranteed, even if he is the Lexington points leader going in and the ML favorite. His 2 wins and 40-point 2nd in the Ruby were all on poly track. His only dirt race was a mediocre 5th in the Risen Star. Here, get the Keeneland Grid here free to follow along. Morning scratches already removed.
.
Meanwhile, there are 5 others in the race vying to run for the roses, none of which have a better PF than Tawny’s Ruby Steaks run, but all of which have better dirt PF’s. So that’s where it gets really interesting. If Tawny Port doesn’t get into the top 4, it could be over for his Derby aspirations.
.
Ethereal Road and In Due Time both have 20 points, and a Lexington win combined with their earnings, both thanks to prior 2nd place G2 finishes, would easily overtake Tawny if he doesn’t hit the board, since they would be tied at 40 points. Of course, if Tawny sucks on dirt again, their connections should just forget the Derby.
.
Major General, Dash Attack, and Call Me Midnight only have 10 points. Any of those could get 20 for the Lexington win, putting them at 30 total, which with their earnings would easily eclipse Happy Jack who is at #21 with 30 points.
.
Since the Derby point system began, horses that are in the top 20, three weeks before the big race, never all make the Derby field. Not seldom, but NEVER. There are always withdrawals for injuries, unfitness, or whatever reason. So it’s possible that 2 or 3 from this race will get into the Derby field, and 30 points may be enough.
.
So who might those be? On paper, there is virtually no early speed in the race at all, with only one horse with Speed Points over 5. However, 6 of them have been on the lead at first call, once and only one race, of their respective careers. So the jockeys and trainers are aware of this, and expect at least one of them to try to steal it on the front end.
.
In Due Time EP6 3-1. If someone else doesn’t make an early move, he’ll have his way up front, and with the possibility of getting to 40 points and a guaranteed run for the roses on the line, Paco won’t be messing around. 1st in Speed, 2nd Power
.
Call Me Midnight S0 6-1 has been running from the back of the pack his last 5 races. He had a brilliant last to first run in the Lecomte G3 to open the year, but flattened out in the La Derby 3 weeks back. 3rd Power, 1st LP and Stamina.
.
Ethereal Road S3 10-1 is running one week back from a disappointing Blue Grass G1, but Lukas is desperate for a Derby horse and confident in his late running ability, with a solid 2nd in the Rebel G2. 2nd in LP and Stam, 4th Power. Guaranteed slot if he wins.
.
Skate to Heaven P3 30-1 looked marginally mediocre in his first 3 races before breaking thru with his maiden win last out going 4w and posting the 2nd best dirt PF in this field, also making him the 4 rules horse. If he runs like that again he could win, but 20 points won’t be getting him into the Derby. Super long shot special though.
.
Dash Attack P1 10-1 was looking strong winning both his first two races including the 10 point Smarty Jones, then ran into graded stakes company and looked quite marginal. He could get a piece but won’t likely win.
.
So those are my top five in this race: 2 11 3 6 10.
Now you’re asking what I did with 4-1 Major General and 5-2 Tawny Port?
Well, I think there’s a reason why Tawny Port has raced 3 of 4 on poly and sucked in his only dirt race.
As for Major General, last year he was solid and won the first Derby prep of the season, but stumble or not in his only race this year, there’s some reason his first race wasn’t until March. Either Todd was confident he’d win or a negative reason for the 6-month layoff.
.
There you have it. Now you’re armed with the Grid and you can make picks your own picks for the rest of the Keeneland Saturday card, on which there are 10 more interesting races including a couple stakes.
.
.
R10 5:48ET 8.5f T JenyWily-G1 4 UP FM
The other big G1 only has 6 contestants and the favorites are strong, but if you want to box a tri maybe included 4yo filly Scarabea who continues to improve at 20-1.
.
R8 4:44ET 5.5f T Gnts CswayL200k 3 UP FM
You have to love 5.5f turf sprint stakes with 13 entries. Unfortunately they’re usually won by the favorite which in this case is the fastest horse Elle Z who has won 3 such stakes races in a row this year. If you think a speed duel may tire out some favs, check out the top 4 late runners, one is 12-1 and the other three are all 30-1 on the ML. You can see this info in the Grid.
.
Other assorted long shot specials (not predicted order of finish):
R7: 1,3, 9
R6: 5
R5: 11, 12
R4: 1, 4
R3: 4
R2: 2, 3
R1: no action
.
Over at Laurel in the Tesio at 5PM, you can see why Shake Em Loose will be favored after beating ML fav Joe in the Private Terms. Smarten Up looks strong too but again low odds. My top long shot is Secret Alliance at 10-1 first time at 2 turns but only E8 in field. Vine Jet 6-1 and South Street 8-1 are the top LP runners.
.
To get the Grid for Keeneland, Churchill, Aqueduct, Santa Anita, and all your favorite tracks, check out the options right here. It’s a great time to join the WWC. The Triple Crown Special includes two months and gets you through the Belmont Stakes in June, or you can just go monthly.
.
Remember to vote in the Kentucky Derby winner poll on the left if you’re looking through a normal browser. It doesn’t show up in mobile browsers.
