Weekend Winners Club

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May 5, 2022.  You’ve heard it over and again, that pace makes the race.  It is true to some varying extent in every race.  It’s obviously not the only factor of course, and the Kentucky Derby is a much different type of race than most run in North America. It’s 10f on dirt with 20 horses in the gate.

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The pace scenario can be estimated using the Running Styles and Quirin Speed points, but it can vary sometimes wildly from what is predicted.  Therefore we must make an educated guess as to how the race will unfold. 

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For this exercise we will use the subsections of the Kentucky Derby Grid concerning the running styles and speed points, and as a bonus the composites of early and late pace.  Take a look. Open pic in new tab to enlarge.

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What you always do first is look at who exhibits early speed the most using the ST column.  8 is the earliest runner and 0 being the latest possible runner, normally a plodder.   You can see right away that we have a good deal of early speed scheduled.  

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There are three E/EP8’s, 3 E/EP7’s, and 4 EP6’s.  In fact, I can make a case for Charge It being a EP7 or E8 as well, because he hit the gate last out which is likely the only reason he didn’t have the lead at 1C. 

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The E style means that horse wants to go to the lead and if he doesn’t get the lead, he won’t win, and normally doesn’t win at longer distances anyway.  Classic Causeway and Summer is Tomorrow are such horses. 

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Others in this group of 10 early runners have show the ability to not actually set the pace, then make a move or attempt to later.  The only 8 that I would say can actually win the roses is Messier, because he could rate just off the pace a bit and still win.  The other 8’s usually fade.

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However, on paper this has to be considered a hotly contested pace, meaning that most of these early/front runners could burn it up on the front end and flame out.  This could open up good opportunities for those who run in mid pack or towards the rear.

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Mo Donegal is one that has shown repeated ability to run from behind with a good closing move, as evidenced by his sweeping Wood G1 win and top LP rating.   Zandon has 2^nd best LP and has a similar running style, enabling him to take the Blue Grass G1 last out. That’s why he’s the ML favorite.

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A fast pace could also benefit the other P and S type runners if they can sustain a good late pace over this distance.  Barber Road, for example with unimpressive PF’s, found himself in the top 2 or 3 at the wire in 5 consecutive stakes races.  Smile Happy wasn’t far behind in 2^nd in his preps this year.

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At least one of the plodders will finish in the top 4 and probably two of them.  When looking for a good true long shot to fill in the superfecta, which almost always happens, you can use a strong late runner to fill that bill, because that’s usually the horse that does it.

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Those who had a strong final ¼ mile in their final prep race, or in another previous race for that matter, are usually good suspects to make a late run.  As luck would have it, you’ve been provided final ¼ times in the last prep race for each horse.  Anything less than 25 seconds is considered strong in that column.

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The full Kentucky Derby Grid has all this and dozens of other performance and historical items to factor in.  You should definitely check it out if you haven’t before, but stay tuned for more Derby Lessons on Friday and Saturday, because those are all free and if you pay attention you might learn something.

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