Weekend Winners Club

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May 6 2021.  If there’s one lesson you should really heed, it’s this one.  In this edition of the Kentucky Derby Lessons, we shall cover the major prep races leading up to the Derby, and their inherent relativism.  We will focus on the Bob Baffert Era which began in 1997 when he won the Kentucky Derby in two consecutive years.  

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Earlier today: Kentucky Oaks Precap

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Obviously, the final prep race for these contestants is important to tune up for the Derby, but it is also a very important factor in determining if they can actually win the big one. It may not surprise you that last year’s Derby winner was 2^nd in his final race, and the last 10 Kentucky Derby winners ALL won their final prep.

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Let’s just some up the results with some numbers and percentages.

In the 25 race span from 1997-2021, the Kentucky Derby winner has won their final prep 64% of the time, and another 28% were runners up in their final prep, making it an astounding 92% that were top 2 in their final prep.  Only 2 winners weren’t top 2; they finished 4^th in their final prep.  

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NO Derby winner was worse than 4^th in their final prep, and in fact only one Derby runner up, last year’s Mandaloun, was worse than 4^th in their last race before running for the roses.

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In only 4 of the 25 races (16%), was the final prep for the winner NOT a Big 6 Prep.  To define that, it’s one of the 6 Grade 1 or 2 races leading up to the Derby.  In modern terms since the point system was invented, it’s a Derby race worth 100 points (or more) leading up to the Run for the Roses.  Take a look:

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(Note: for 2020, we substituted the races to applicable preps leading up to the Derby, including the the Belmont, Travers, and Haskell.  The usual Big 6 races were either cancelled or run several months beforehand rather than within the last 2 months.  Things returned to normal in 2021.)

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This grid also shows that the Ky Derby runner up also finished 1 or 2 in their final prep the vast majority of the time.  78% of the horses running 1 and 2 in the Kentucky Derby also ran 1 or 2 in their final prep, and in 84% of the races, their final prep was a Big 6 race.

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Thus, a major predictor of a winner or runner up finish in the Kentucky Derby, is that they finished 1^st or 2^nd in their final Prep, and the value increases if it was a Big 6 prep, which is why it is a critical criteria in the Derby Grid and also in any serious attempting to predict a Derby champ.

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Note that 11 of the 12 this year are participants in the run for the roses, so we already narrowed the field down by about half just in this exercise.  In a previous Derby Lesson about performance figures, and with another about trainers and jockeys, we narrowed it down further. 

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Grades for each of these categories will be aggregated and displayed in tomorrow Derby for Dummies guide which includes a chart with total scores.  Previous Derby for Dummies have done very well.   There will be one more lesson before that is issued so stay tuned.

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To get the full Kentucky Derby Grid with over 80 historical, pedigree, and critical criteria, or the full Derby day Grid, click here.

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