Weekend Winners Club

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Friday May 6 2022.  Churchill Downs kicks off Derby weekend with 7 graded stakes today, highlighted by the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks wherein 14 brilliant 3yo fillies will run for a measly $1.25 million purse.  Most of the 13 race card is for fillies and mares on Ladies Day.

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Racing began at 10:30am, that’s right in the morning, with a 3yo filly claiming race. Stakes racing begins with race 5 at 12:43pm, with 6 graded stakes races leading up the Oaks, scheduled for 5:51pm. 

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Weather is pleasant and cloudy for now but with an increasing strong chance of rain and storms in the late afternoon and evening.  We’ll hope for the best but keep your mudders in mind, and especially if their mudder was a mudder.

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So far today the EP rating in the Grid has been working well on dirt, even though some of the winners are coming from off the pace.  Here’s the current results and outlook including long shot specials (LSS).

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Race 1: top 3 in EP finished 1 2 and 4.

Race 2: top 3 in EP finished 2 1 and 3, with the winner being a nice 10-1 long shot.

Race 3 and 4 were won by obvious favorites that were top in power, LP , etc in the Grid.

Race 5 on turf was ruled by the top LP’s, at 1-1, 5-2. 7-1, and 33-1 in 4^th.   

Race 6:  3 is 2^nd LP is 12-1 on the ML.  Top LP by far is 6-1 Battle Bling who is also 4 rules and best PF.

Race 7: Another top EP special for you is 2 at 5-1.

Race 8: Lone frontrunner #2 at 10-1 ML.  Best PF last out #1 at 20-1 switching to turf from poly. LSS!

Race 9:  Best PF at this distance is tie with the favorite and 9 at 15-1 cutting back to one turn.

Race 10:  Long shots I like are 6 and 11 at 10-1 each and 12 at 12-1 ML.

Race 11:  The Oaks.  On paper, with 3 E8’s and an EP7, the upfront pace should be somewhat torrid. Can the speed hold up?  If it does you have the E8’s at 30-1, 4-1, and 20-1.  If not, the two late running favorites will be happy to scoop up the prize.  But there are other long shots to consider.

2 Nostalgic 15-1 was the Gazelle G3 winner with 2^nd best PF at 15-1 ML.

9 Desert Dawn 20-1 won the SA Oaks G2 giving her the best PF last race out and 4 rules alert.

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Here’s a look at the Oaks Grid the way I look at it with some interesting things highlighted.  Open in a new tab to enlarge.

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There are two more races after the oaks.

Race 12:  I like 4 and 5 to make some noise at 6-1 and 8-1.

Race 13:  The speedster 10 is at 8-1 despite having the top power rating and LP in the Grid.

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You can get the full Grids for Oaks day and Derby day right here for one low price.  That’s every race complete with EP , Power, LP, etc just as you see above, with comments in all those boxes you see with red markers in the corner.

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Also, stay tuned for more Derby lessons because there are more coming out today, and then Derby for Dummies guide that will be issued on Saturday.

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Good luck!

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