Weekend Winners Club

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Friday, May 20, 2022.  The Preakness-Derby significance study is one of my most favorite statistical references of the year, because it’s always predictable and sturdily backed up by the historical results.

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It’s basically the same thing every year, if I could sum up this article in one sentence.  Some of the top 8 Kentucky Derby contestants appear in the Preakness, and take up 2 or 3 of the top 4 finishes there.  Triple Crown newcomers occupy the other 1-2 slots, and you can find them using the Grid.

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Look at figure 1, when the Derby champion competes in the Preakness, he wins half the time, and he’s in the superfecta over 90% of the time.  We don’t have to worry about that this year since he’s a DNR.

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But top 8 Derby runners historically fare very well in the Preakness:

10 of 13 for Derby runners up finished ITM Preakness

8 of 12 Derby 3^rd place were ITM in Preakness

3 of 5 Derby 4^th place horses were also top 4 in the Preakness.

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The other thing to look at is the historical Preakness top 4, and where they finished in the Ky Derby, if they even ran it. So  check that out too.

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In this year’s Preakness, who are we looking at? Only 3 from the Ky Derby are competing: Epicenter (2^nd Ky Derby), Simplification (4^th Derby), and Happy Jack (14^th Derby). 

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So you know who to key now, but not great odds.  Also entering the mix is Secret Oath at 9-2.  The Kentucky Oaks winning fillies have a great record in the Preakness, as does trainer Wayne Lukas.

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So far it’s looking quite chalky either way you put it, but normally a long shot makes its way somewhere into the superfecta.  I have a couple for you.

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Skippylongstocking at 20-1 has continued to improve and sitting on a big one for the hottest trainer of the year Saffie Joseph.

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Creative Minister at 10-1ML and hopefully those odds hold up, has shown a strong ability for late running and it’s hard to tell what his cap is, but with Kenny training, I do like those odds.

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So based on the historical and current analysis, I like it with Early Voting on top.

Prediction:  5 8 1 4 9 2

If I hit that straight, I retire and you may not hear from me again, because I’m betting it $100 straight for the super high 5.

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If not, you’ll continue to get free analysis for a while.

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Get the Preakness Grid, Belmont Grid, and every grid for all you favorite tracks and races, right here.

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Good luck! 😀

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Preakness Preview Precap Premonition:  Preakness- Derby connection and significance.

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Friday, May 20, 2022.  The Preakness-Derby significance study is one of my most favorite statistical references of the year, because it’s always predictable and sturdily backed up by the historical results.

.

It’s basically the same thing every year, if I could sum up this article in one sentence.  Some of the top 8 Kentucky Derby contestants appear in the Preakness, and take up 2 or 3 of the top 4 finishes there.  Triple Crown newcomers occupy the other 1-2 slots, and you can find them using the Grid.

.

Look at figure 1, when the Derby champion competes in the Preakness, he wins half the time, and he’s in the superfecta over 90% of the time.  We don’t have to worry about that this year since he’s a DNR.

FIGURE 1

.

But top 8 Derby runners historically fare very well in the Preakness:

10 of 13 for Derby runners up finished ITM Preakness

8 of 12 Derby 3^rd place were ITM in Preakness

3 of 5 Derby 4^th place horses were also top 4 in the Preakness.

.

The other thing to look at is the historical Preakness top 4, and where they finished in the Ky Derby, if they even ran it. So  check that out too.

.

PREAKNESS CHART.

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In this year’s Preakness, who are we looking at? Only 3 from the Ky Derby are competing: Epicenter (2^nd Ky Derby), Simplification (4^th Derby), and Happy Jack (14^th Derby). 

.

So you know who to key now, but not great odds.  Also entering the mix is Secret Oath at 9-2.  The Kentucky Oaks winning fillies have a great record in the Preakness, as does trainer Wayne Lukas.

.

So far it’s looking quite chalky either way you put it, but normally a long shot makes its way somewhere into the superfecta.  I have a couple for you.

.

Skippylongstocking at 20-1 has continued to improve and sitting on a big one for the hottest trainer of the year Saffie Joseph.

.

Creative Minister at 10-1ML and hopefully those odds hold up, has shown a strong ability for late running and it’s hard to tell what his cap is, but with Kenny training, I do like those odds.

.

So based on the historical and current analysis, I like it with Early Voting on top.

Prediction:  5 8 1 4 9 2

If I hit that straight, I retire and you may not hear from me again, because I’m betting it $100 straight for the super high 5.

.

If not, you’ll continue to get free analysis for a while.

.

Get the Preakness Grid, Belmont Grid, and every grid for all you favorite tracks and races, right here.

.

Good luck! 😀

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