Loading ...Jun 16 2022
Belmont Stakes Day 2022 Recap; Right on Belmont, Other races here and there
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Thursday, June 16, 2022. It’s time for a little recap of the Belmont Stakes. We did real well in that race, and in the 1st race. But there was, right, wrong, good, bad, ugly and stuff in between. Let’s look at what happened and why.
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The day started off with a nice 14-1 winner and a sandwich super which paid well.
Then a 9-1 winner which made some sense on paper, except it didn’t play out anything like it was supposed to.
Then a slew of short fields and with chalk at the top.
The Phipps G1 in race 7 was interesting because top LP won, which they do a lot at 8.5f, except she was at 5-1 in a field of only 5, up from 3-1, as people flew towards favorites.
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In last week’s Belmont Stakes precap, we provided a snapshot of the Manhattan and Belmont races, along with some analysis. Here’s the snapshot provided.
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Manhattan G1:
I had good things to say about favored Gufo, but also Channel Maker, always a danger on the front end. What happened in the race was disastrous for Channel Maker, who completely missed the break and was 5 lengths behind the leader before he got out of the gate, so it was over for him.
That also compromised Gufo, who would need at least an honest pace up front. Instead, Tribhuvan found himself alone on the lead, galloping around easily from gate to wire. Late runners Adhamo and Gufo managed 2nd and 3rd while Channel Maker could never make up the lost ground.
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Belmont G1:
The first 4 covered there were We the People, Nest, Skippylongstalking, and Mo Donegal, and that was for good reason, they were my top 4, just not in that order. But they did all finish top four as we know. But I wanted to point out why.
Mo Donegal had the top PF, scored 2 back in the Wood, and top LP. There was every reason to think he would bounce back after a tough Kentucky Derby where he still finished 5th.
We The People got a 100 PF last out, by far his career best, so you would expect him to bounce after that. However, it was at Belmont and he’s still improving. Horses for courses.
Skippylongstocking had the 2nd best PF, also in the Wood, 2nd behind Donegal. Note he was also top in Speed, and I expected him to bounce back after an unimpressive Preakness.
Nest had steadily improving figures, including 2nd last out in the Kentucky Oaks, and there was reason to believe a return to non-mud might actually help. It wouldn’t be the first filly for Todd to win here.
Creative Minister PF’s indicate he might oscillate back to a strong race based on his last two, so I mentioned him as the primary horse of interest after the top 4. He got 5th.
Rich Strike was coming off the biggest career race he’ll probably have, with the surprise Kentucky Derby win, and I thought for sure even after the 5 weeks off, he would bounce from that, and tossed him along with the last two. They finished in the bottom 3.
I also mentioned that Todd has a good record in this race, and a great reason to support Mo and Nest, who ran top two. So that’s how you handicap the Belmont Stakes.
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The Belmont trifecta, easy enough to call, paid a healthy $94 for the 50cent bet, and the dime super paid $70 for a very affordable bet.
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Back in the Preakness, I actually won a contest for calling the top 3 trifecta in exact order, for a $375 prize, which was much more than the trifecta actually paid, which was only $66 for $1. Preakness Precap will show why.
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The bottom line is, I know a few things about these 3yo’s and triple crown races, except when an 80-1 long shot wins the Kentucky Derby. But I’m not the only one who didn’t see Rich Strike coming.
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There won’t be any graded 3yo races until July. I’m also good at the juveniles, and there are a lot of good juvy stakes coming up. So stay tuned for upcoming free grids and precaps, and of course upcoming racing schedules.
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As usual, you can get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races right here.
