Weekend Winners Club

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Monday, July 4, 2022.  Yes the annual grilling day of the USA is finally here, and so is Independence Day racing at Churchill Downs, with some awesome 2yo stakes racing and a few MSW’s thrown in for good measure.  There is over $1 million in purse money up for grabs today at CD!

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The exciting 9 race card featuring the Bashford Manor and Debutante Stakes, wherein brave young 2yo’s begin their Kentucky Derby and Oaks aspirations, begins at 12:45PM, with stakes racing commencing at 3:18PM with the Bashford Manor.  Weather is hot and sunny. Grab today’s free Grid first.

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R2 1:14ET 6f D MSW 2 YO F 120000

The first MSW of the day features 12 of the best east coast 2yo’s, only 5 of which have raced before, including the alternate entry #13.  In this case I like to give serious consideration to the unraced entries. 

Boltoro 4-1 is thus the favorite, coached by Mark Casse and ridden by Adam Beschizza.

BUT:

Magical Lute, Fun and Feisty, Friendlypersuasion, and Best Seller are all 10-1 with accomplished sires, trainers, and jockeys.  High Fashion Lady and Bea Flattered have lower odds but also could win. Wide open race people, time to wheel and deal on this one.

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R4 2:13ET 6f D MSW 2 YO F 120000

In this one, 10 of the 12, unless the AE gets in, are unraced.  Lots of possibilities here as well.

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R5 2:45ET 8f D OClm 62500n2x 3 UP 

There’s a lot of early speed in this miler. Top LP’s are Shortlist 15-1 and Gagetown 10-1.  I like those odds, but favorites Doubly Blessed, Roderick, Enid, and Skyro will have to be dealt with for anyone attempting to win the race.  Big Lake at 8-1ML has a good chance too.

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R6 3:18ET 6f D BshfdMnrL175k 2 YO 

The Bashford Manor stakes hasn’t produced many Kentucky Derby champs but has graduated some all-time greats like Preakness champ Summer Squall, along with Circular Quay, Kodiak Cowboy, Limehouse, and Classic Empire, among others.

It’s hard to envision Gulfport (4-5) not winning this.  Single him in the verticals.

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R7 3:50ET 6f D DebutanteL175k 2 YO F

There are 4 fillies with odds on, and those will likely occupy the superfecta.  Sabra Tuff at 8-1 ML and Eyes of Gold at 20-1 will try to break up the chalk fest.

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R8 4:22ET 8f D HanshinL175k 4 UP 

3 Weyburn at 4-1, Sir Shackleton winner, looks to return to form at 4-1 after a stumble last out.

6 Plainsman at 5-2 will be difficult to beat but the frontrunner needs to hold speed for a mile to win.

7 Cody’s Wish 8-5 obviously has a good chance, but his best race was on a sloppy track in Elmont.

1 Mish 9-2 may be the best value pick, with the highest speed average in the last 4.

4 Awesome Gerry 15-1 is the super long shot special for this one, coming off two 7f wins.

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R9 4:55ET 9f D OClm 80000n1x 3 YO 

In general I like OCM’s because they’re a good venue to find out what the horse is really made of.  Some of these 3yo’s could have been on the Triple Crown Trail if they had developed earlier.  But, let’s just take a look at some long shot specials because that’s what this site is all about.

7 War Campaign 8-1.  Won at 8.5f in 2^nd career race last out.  If he improves again, it’s a 1 horse race.

2 Just Call Ray at 8-1.  4 rules anyone? Yes please.  Great late run in 1 length loss last out

12 Hippodrome had some previous 2 turn issues but won last out at 8f.

1 Britain’s Kitten 20-1 is the top LP so we have to consider him, but he should stick to turf.

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For the rest of the races, just use the Grid and some good horse sense. Good luck!

You can get the Grid for all your favorite races and tracks here.

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