Loading ...Jul 16 2022
Saturday Saratoga Spa Sanford Stakes Stats & Speculation: July 16 at the Spa Graded Stakes Precap; Pick 6 Carryover $532k
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Saturday, July 16, 2022. Today the Spa features two graded stakes races: the Diana G1 for females on turf, and the Sanford G3 for juveniles on dirt. Weather is very moderate for this time of year, with no chance of any significant rain. A Pick 6 Carryover of $532k goes in today to sweeten the deal.
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First the brief history lesson and then we’ll handicap. The Sanford Stakes has graduated many top Triple Crown contenders. For example, you may have heard of former Sanford winners Secretariat and Affirmed, who just went on to become Triple Crown Champions the next year!
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Other Sanford winners ended up winning or finishing ITM in Triple Crown races, such as Preakness/Belmont winner Afleet Alex, More Than Ready, Formal Dinner, Forty Niner, among others.
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Still others became influential sires in TC racing, such as Scat Daddy, Maria’s Mon, and the legendary sires Hail To Reason, Tom Fool, and Regret. So you can see that this race is very important not just for 3yo aspirations, but for breeding possibilities.
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Thus, this year’s talented field of young 2yo’s represents a great opportunity to put some new names on the map for racing as well as breeding. Let’s break down the field, so get today’s free Grid first to follow along. TV coverage on Fox Sports 2 and racing begins at 1PM.
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R10 6:13ET 6f D Sanford-G3 2 YO
As you would expect in a 12 horse field at 6f, where all of them are winners, and all but two of them won first out, there’s plenty of early speed. Todd Pletcher, who has a pair in the race, has had 8 trainees win this event, starting in 1999.
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Others with a stake in today’s race, who have had winners in this event are Kelly Breen, Tony Dutrow, and Tom Amoss, so keep an eye on their steeds. Steve Asmussen, who has interestingly never won this race, also has an entry.
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4 Forte 5-2 is the ML favorite and Todd’s top juve in this race. In a field of speed, it’s hard to bet against the one that won from behind in a 5f debut, with NY’s top jockey Irad Ortiz.
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9 Andiamo A Firenze at 7-2 had perhaps the most impressive debut, in terms of speed figures, drawing away with a win on a sloppy Belmont track for Breen and NY’s 2nd best jockey, Jose Ortiz.
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And now that we’re done with the Ortiz brothers, who may well run 1-2…
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12 Valenzan Day 6-1 won first out and finished a strong 3rd in the Tremont Stakes last out for Rudy R and Rosario up. He’s the only stakes raced horse in the field, and closed well in both races.
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5 Curly Jack at 6-1 will have to be reckoned with, after winning a MSW 120k first out, going away for Tom Amoss. Gaffalione gets the mount for the first time.
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6 Mo Strike 8-1 also won his debut MSW 120k, after tracking the leader with Florent Geroux getting the mount again for Brad Cox.
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The next 3 to look out for breaking into the super, especially the first one, in this order:
3 Great Navigator 12-1 by unknown sire Sea Wizard, an Uncle Mo son who charges only $1500 a pop. Trainer and jockey names not well known.
2 Major Dude 10-1 by Bolt D’oro another first out winner for Todd and Johnny V.
1 Boppy O 15-1, another by Bolt D’oro came from behind for Mark Casse, Dylan Davis gets the mount.
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Very surprisingly, the mystery oddsmakers at Saratoga see things almost the exact same way as I do for this race. They’re probably 2yo/3yo horse experts like me, but they also know how people are going to bet.
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So if you see any of these going off at higher odds than the morning line, that’s a definite overlay and something to consider in your wagers. Anything going off under is a wise-guy play and could win even tho you don’t want it to. And that’s racing.
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Alright, I’m already exhausted from the exhaustive analysis of that exhausting race. Use the Grid for the other races and hopefully you’ll learn something, enjoy the races, and win some bucks!
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Unfortunately the Grade 1 Diana has only attracted a field of 6 this year, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be an exciting race. There’s only one throw out, and I’m not talking about the longest shot. Dalika at 15-1 was runner up in the Mint Julep G3 last out, and could hit the board.
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Good luck!
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