Weekend Winners Club

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Saturday, November 5, 2022.  Breeders’ Cup Day 2 is underway on Saturday with 9 outstanding G1 races in all sorts of categories.  We’re still reeling on the heels of a 40-1 winner of the BC Turf Sprint, after the frontrunning favorite broke last and never did catch up, leaving Caravel to go gate to wire.

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But at least the rain has held off so far in this part of Lexington.  Today our spotlight race is the BC Sprint G1 at 6f.  Everyone else is talking the Classic, so let’s be different.  Who can beat Flightline anyway?  Epicenter and Taiba are the only ones with a shot but only if the favorite doesn’t run.

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So we’ll talk about the Sprint and a couple turf races and give you a shot at some decent money.  Take a look at the snapshot here, in which we conveniently show 2 other races by accident.

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The Grid is telling us that Jackie’s Warrior is the best here, and certainly the odds of 4-5 will corroborate that.  He hasn’t lost at 6f except in this race last year, at Del Mar in his only west coast race.  The fact that he’s the only true frontrunner in a field almost devoid of speed also points to him.

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So did we pick a bad race? Maybe, but JW still has to run it, and he can’t run 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th, so let’s work out a superfecta while we’re here.  By the numbers, the 2^nd ML choice Kimari looks like the most likely candidate and has the speed to hang.  After that it gets fuzzy.

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Because of the pace scenario, I bring you two super long shot specials that can crash the party.

11 Flash of Mischief 30-1 cut back to sprint last out and destroyed the field. Prevailing PF’s agree.

7 Super Ocho 30-1 had trouble last out but pulled off a great performance in the SA Sprint.

5 Aloha West 12-1 has a great running style and tactical speed for this race.

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Here’s how I see it and the top two are interchangeable.

2 9 11 5 7 6

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In the BCFM Turf, you can see there’s some good value on Tuesday and Virginia Joy.  Chad Brown will likely have two in the trifecta or super, with 3 outstanding turf females.

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For the BC Mile, also on turf, we might as just hand it to Modern Games, who despite his 7-2 ML, will be a prohibitive favorite.  Appleby has dominated on turf here so far, with Buick up. But again, it takes more than 1 horse to complete an exotic wager.

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There are only two true frontrunners slated for this race, and I give one of them a good shot.

5 Smooth Like Strait 10-1 has the speed to get things done on the front end and no problem with 8f.

11 Annapolis at 10-1 manifests early speed and comes off a solid Keeneland Turf Mile G1 win.

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The second most solid horse and 2^nd ML choice is Kinross at 9-2, coming off 4 straight G1 wins in Europe.  His trainer, unlike Appleby, has had no success here yet.  Maybe he breaks through.

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The top American closer is Domestic Spending at 8-1, with Chad Brown monitoring his progress and Flavien up, he will need to be reckoned with.

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So there are plenty of good long shot specials to occupy your wagers today.  Good luck!

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To get the Grid for all Breeders’ Cup races and every other big race or track for that matter, check out the options here.

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Also, TVG is offering money back for up to $10 win wagers on all Breeders’ Cup races today. Sign up!

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