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Weekend Winners Club

Apr 01 2023

Sat.Apr.1: Kentucky Derby Pool 6 closing / Derby Dirty Dozen / Arkansas Derby / Florida Derby

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Saturday, April 1. No fooling here, this is a huge day for horse racing, in particular the Triple Crown Trail and Road to the Roses. Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 6 with 39 individual entries and the field, closes at 6pm, which will be BEFORE 11 of the entries run in the Arkansas Derby and Florida Derby.
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This is a good time to throw in a Derby Dozen and One rankings, and we’ve provided the Kentucky Derby Pool 6 Grid with Derby rankings embedded. In addition, this special version includes the Arkansas and Florida Derby Grids below it, and highlights horses with individual entries in Pool 6.

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In addition, the Kentucky Derby website has provided the Brisnet long form PP’s for the Derby Pool 6, which you will notice is black and white and 14 pages compared to the one page Grid.
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The Derby Dozen rankings are both objective and subjective, and have nothing to do with earnings or points, but rather on track performances and predictive reasoning. There are good or great odds on all of them that we ranked except for Forte, who is a universal #1 right now and the favorite at 5-1.
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Weather is warm and sunny at both tracks today with little chance of any rain, and the tracks should both be dried out by race time. Oaklawn and Gulfstream both have great cards with 27 races total and multiple listed and graded stakes. Racing is already underway so let’s do some quick analysis.
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R14 6:40ET 9f D FlaDerby-G1 3 YO
You can see the 5 highlighted horses out of the field of 12 that have individual entries in Pool 6 including heavy 4-5 favorite Forte who has only won 5 out of 6 races including a G2 and 3 G1’s.

Forte-Caverock-2022BCJuvenile-Nov4-Keeneland

Forte cruised past heavily favored pacesetter Cave Rock in the stretch for a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile G1 win November 4, 2022 at Keenland

I like the other 4 to hit the board also except for Dubyahnell, who has only done well on sloppy tracks. But I will wheel the 3 long shots at the 2 and 3 spot alternately, because usually, as in almost every edition except last year, one of those long shots finishes 2nd or 3rd.
Mage will almost certainly be a single digit entry and may even be 2nd choice. He had an impressive debut maiden win but ran into a horrible trip after hitting the gate in the FOY.
The two Saffie colts should be ready to roll after the trainer change, even though one of them is still a maiden. I’m leaning Nautical Star for top 3 honors since there’s a lot of speed for him to make up ground on late.


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R12 7:24ET 9f D ArkDerby-G1 3 YO
The majority of this field, as in 6 out of 11, are entries in Pool 6, including the 4 with odds of less than 5-1. With them I would like the two speedsters out of the 3 and 4 posts to have a say in it because they’re really the only frontrunning types besides Reincarnate.
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I consider those I ranked top 4 to be somewhat interchangeable. This doesn’t look like the type of race that someone like Red Route One will be able to come out of the clouds in the stretch, and it’s unclear if he can put up a great performance on a dry track, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he hit the board.
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Remember to place your Pool 6 Futures bets before 6pm ET today. You can’t wait until you see the results of the Arkansas or Florida Derby, because betting closes for good at 6pm. No futures wagering tomorrow. Good luck!
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You can get the Grid for all races at Gulfstream, Oaklawn, the Kentucky Derby, and all your favorite tracks, right here.
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In addition, check out our free subsite here, the original

Kentucky Derby Central

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