Weekend Winners Club

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May 2021. The Thoroughbred Stakes Schedule for North America and Japan has been updated after some early month changes. Churchill Downs of course kicked off the month with a bang and Baffert’s 207th Kentucky Derby victory.

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2021 Thoroughbred Stakes Schedule for North America and Japan Racing

Race	Track	Date	Purse	Age/Sex	Dist	Surf	Fee/Closing
Fort Marcy S (G2T)	Bel	05-01	$200k g	4&up	9f	Turf	Closed on Apr 17.
Sheepshead Bay S (G2T)	Bel	05-01	$200k g	4&up f/m	11f	Turf	Closed on Apr 17.
Westchester S (G3)	Bel	05-01	$200k g	4&up	8f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 17.
American Turf (G2T)	CD	05-01	$500k g	3yo	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Apr 10.
Churchill Downs Presented by Ford (G1)	CD	05-01	$500k g	4&up	7f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 10.
Derby City Distaff (G1)	CD	05-01	$500k g	4&up f/m	7f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 10.
Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1)	CD	05-01	$3,000k g	3yo	10f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 29.
Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2T)	CD	05-01	$500k g	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	Closed on Apr 10.
Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (G1T)	CD	05-01	$1,000k g	4&up	9f	Turf	Closed on Apr 10.
Pat Day Mile Presented by LG&E and KU (G2)	CD	05-01	$500k g	3yo	8f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 10.
It's Binn Too Long S	CT	05-01	$50k a	3yo f S	4.5f	Dirt	$50/Apr 21
Al Swihart Memorial S	Fon	05-01	$20k a	3&up f/m	6.5f	Dirt	$0/Apr 24
Coors Starter	Fon	05-01	$10k g	4&up R	9f	Dirt	$0/Apr 24
Big Drama S	GP	05-01	$75k g	3&up S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 18.
Honey Ryder S	GP	05-01	$75k g	3yo f	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Apr 18.
Aoba Sho (G2T)	JRA	05-01	$1,120k a	3yo	12f	Turf	Closed on Mar 9.
Middleburg Hunt Cup	Mid	05-01	$25k g	5&up	26f	Turf	Closed on Apr 19.
Temple Gwathmey Steeplechase (G2T)	Mid	05-01	$75k g	4&up	20f	Turf	Closed on Apr 19.
Oaklawn Invitational	OP	05-01	$300k g	3yo	9f	Dirt	Not Available
Angels Flight S	SA	05-01	$75k a	3yo f	7f	Dirt	$0/Apr 22
Senorita S (G3T)	SA	05-01	$100k g	3yo f	8f	Turf	$100/Apr 22
Dr. T.F. Classen Memorial S	Tdn	05-01	$75k g	3&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	$50/Apr 21
Hasta La Vista S	TuP	05-01	$35k g	3&up	15f	Turf	Not Available
Turf Paradise Open Spring Futurity	TuP	05-01	$30k a	2yo	5f	Dirt	Not Available
Whimsical S (G3)	WO	05-01	$150k g	4&up f/m	6f	AW	Closed on Ap
Ruffian (G2)	Bel	05-02	$200k g	4&up f/m	8f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 17.
Tenno Sho Spring (G1T)	JRA	05-02	$3,096k a	4&up	16f	Turf	Closed on Mar 9.
Jacques Cartier S (G3)	WO	05-02	$150k g	4&up	6f	AW	Closed on Apr 14.
Daryl E. Parker/Tall Stack S	BTP	05-06	$75k g	3yo S	6.5f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 26.
Skunktail S	HsP	05-07	$20k a	3yo S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 30.
Beaugay S (G3T)	Bel	05-08	$150k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Apr 24.
Man o' War (G1T)	Bel	05-08	$700k g	4&up	11f	Turf	Closed on Apr 24.
Peter Pan S (G3)	Bel	05-08	$200k g	3yo	9f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 24.
Runhappy S (G3)	Bel	05-08	$150k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 24.
Vagrancy (G3)	Bel	05-08	$150k g	4&up f/m	6.5f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 24.
Mamzelle S	CD	05-08	$110k a	3yo f	5f	Turf	Closed on Apr 24.
Coin Collector S	CT	05-08	$50k a	3yo S	4.5f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 28.
English Channel S	GP	05-08	$75k g	3yo	8.5f	Turf	Closed on Apr 25.
Fantango Lady S	HsP	05-08	$20k a	3yo f S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 30.
Kyoto Shimbun Hai (G2T)	JRA	05-08	$1,120k a	3yo	11f	Turf	Closed on Mar 23.
Santa Barbara S (G3T)	SA	05-08	$100k g	3&up f/m	12f	Turf	Closed on Apr 29.
Jack Cole S	SuR	05-08	$40k a	3&up S	6.5f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 24.
Gold Fever S	Bel	05-09	$100k g	3yo	6f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 24.
NHK Mile Cup (G1T)	JRA	05-09	$2,160k a	3yo	8f	Turf	Closed on Mar 23.
Niigata Daishoten (G3T)	JRA	05-09	$838k a	4&up	10f	Turf	Closed on Mar 23.
Fran's Valentine S	SA	05-09	$100k g	3&up f/m S	8f	Turf	Closed on Apr 29.
Caveman S	GrP	05-10	$10k a	3&up	5f	Dirt	Not Available
Michael F. Rowland Memorial H	Tdn	05-10	$75k g	3&up S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 30.
Daily Courier S	GrP	05-11	$10k a	3&up f/m	5f	Dirt	Not Available
Evangeline Downs Distaff	EvD	05-14	$60k g	4&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 30.
Nebraska Queen's S	HsP	05-14	$20k a	3&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 30.
Allaire duPont Distaff S (G3)	Pim	05-14	$150k g	3&up f/m	9f	Dirt	$0/May 4
Black-Eyed Susan S (G2)	Pim	05-14	$250k g	3yo f	9f	Dirt	$0/May 4
Hilltop S	Pim	05-14	$100k g	3yo f	8f	Turf	$100/May 4
Miss Preakness S (G3)	Pim	05-14	$150k g	3yo f	6f	Dirt	$0/May 4
Pimlico Special (G3)	Pim	05-14	$250k g	3&up	9.5f	Dirt	$0/May 4
The Very One S	Pim	05-14	$100k g	3&up f/m	5f	Turf	$100/May 4
Soaring Softly S (G3T)	Bel	05-15	$100k g	3yo f	7f	Turf	Closed on May 1.
Louisville (G3T)	CD	05-15	$150k g	4&up	12f	Turf	$150/May 5
Evangeline Downs Classic	EvD	05-15	$60k g	4&up S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 30.
Powder Break S	GP	05-15	$75k g	3&up f/m	8f	Turf	Closed on May 2.
Roar S	GP	05-15	$75k g	3yo	6f	Dirt	Closed on May 2.
Roman Zipper S	HsP	05-15	$20k a	3&up S	8f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 30.
Keio Hai Spring Cup (G2T)	JRA	05-15	$1,221k a	4&up	7f	Turf	Closed on Mar 23.
Chick Lang S (G3)	Pim	05-15	$200k g	3yo	6f	Dirt	$0/May 4
Dinner Party S (G2T)	Pim	05-15	$250k g	3&up	8.5f	Turf	$100/May 4
Gallorette S (G3T)	Pim	05-15	$150k g	3&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	$100/May 4
James W. Murphy S	Pim	05-15	$100k g	3yo	8f	Turf	$100/May 4
Jim McKay Turf Sprint	Pim	05-15	$100k g	3&up	5f	Turf	$100/May 4
Maryland Sprint S (G3)	Pim	05-15	$150k g	3&up	6f	Dirt	$0/May 4
Preakness S (G1)	Pim	05-15	$1,000k g	3yo	9.5f	Dirt	$25,000/May 12
Sir Barton S	Pim	05-15	$100k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	$0/May 4
Skipat S	Pim	05-15	$100k g	3&up f/m	6f	Dirt	$0/May 4
Golden Circle S	PrM	05-15	$50k g	3yo	6f	Dirt	Closed on May 2.
Goldfinch S	PrM	05-15	$50k g	3yo f	6f	Dirt	Closed on May 2.
National Hunt Cup Hurdle	Rad	05-15	$20k g	4&up	19f	Turf	Not Available
Radnor Hunt Cup Timber	Rad	05-15	$20k g	4&up	26f	Turf	Not Available
Lazaro Barrera S (G3)	SA	05-15	$100k g	3yo	6.5f	Dirt	$100/May 6
Victoria Mile (G1T)	JRA	05-16	$2,160k a	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	Closed on Mar 23.
Desert Stormer S (G3)	SA	05-16	$100k g	3&up f/m	6f	Dirt	$100/May 6
10,000 Lakes S	Cby	05-19	$50k g	3&up S	6f	Dirt	$0/May 9
Lady Slipper S	Cby	05-19	$50k g	3&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	$0/May 9
Sagamore Sired S	Ind	05-19	$75k a	3yo S	5.5f	Dirt	$0/May 5
Swifty Sired Fillies S	Ind	05-19	$75k a	3yo f S	5.5f	Dirt	$0/May 5
Seek Again S	Bel	05-22	$100k g	4&up	8f	Turf	$100/May 8
Carolina Cup	Cam	05-22	$30k g	4&up	19f	Turf	Closed
Keertana S	CD	05-22	$110k a	4&up f/m	12f	Turf	$0/May 15
Winning Colors S (G3)	CD	05-22	$150k g	4&up f/m	6f	Dirt	$150/May 8
Heian S (G3)	JRA	05-22	$737k a	4&up	9.5f	Dirt	Closed on Apr 6.
Honeymoon S (G3T)	SA	05-22	$100k g	3yo f	9f	Turf	$100/May 13
Santa Maria S (G2)	SA	05-22	$200k g	3&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	$100/May 13
Royal North S (G2T)	WO	05-22	$175k g	4&up f/m	6f	Turf	$175/May 5
Alcatraz S	GG	05-23	$75k g	3yo	8f	Turf	$50/May 14
Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) (G1T)	JRA	05-23	$2,273k a	3yo f	12f	Turf	Closed on Apr 6.
Cinema S	SA	05-23	$100k g	3yo	9f	Turf	$100/May 13
C.O. "Ken" Kendrick Memorial S	SuR	05-23	$45k a	2yo S	4.5f	Dirt	$200/May 14
Connaught Cup S (G2T)	WO	05-23	$175k g	4&up	7f	Turf	$175/May 5
Astral Moon S	AsD	05-24	$18k a	3&up f/m	5f	Dirt	$0/May 13
Osprey S	GrP	05-24	$10k a	3yo	5.5f	Dirt	Not Available
Sail to France S	AsD	05-25	$18k a	3yo f	5f	Dirt	$0/May 13
One Night Lover S	AsD	05-26	$18k a	3&up	5f	Dirt	$0/May 13
Brooks Fields S	Cby	05-26	$50k g	3&up	8f	Turf	$0/May 16
HBPA Turf Distaff	Cby	05-26	$50k g	3&up f/m	8f	Turf	$0/May 16
Honor the Hero S	Cby	05-26	$50k g	3&up	5f	Turf	$0/May 16
Best of Ohio Babst/Palacios Memorial S	BTP	05-28	$100k g	3&up S	6f	Dirt	$50/May 18
Best of Ohio Diana S	BTP	05-28	$100k g	3&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	$50/May 18
Best of Ohio Green Carpet S	BTP	05-28	$100k g	3yo S	8.5f	Turf	$50/May 18
Best of Ohio Norm Barron Queen City Oaks	BTP	05-28	$100k g	3yo f S	8.5f	Dirt	$50/May 18
Best of Ohio Sydney Gendelman S	BTP	05-28	$100k g	3&up S	8.5f	Turf	$50/May 18
Dazzling Falls S	HsP	05-28	$20k a	3yo S	8f	Dirt	$0/May 14
Jersey Derby S	Mth	05-28	$100k g	3yo	8f	Turf	$100/May 14
Penn Mile (G2T)	Pen	05-28	$300k g	3yo	8f	Turf	Not Available
Penn Oaks	Pen	05-28	$100k g	3yo f	8f	Turf	Not Available
Pennine Ridge (G2T)	Bel	05-29	$200k g	3yo	9f	Turf	$200/May 15
Aristides	CD	05-29	$125k g	4&up	6f	Dirt	$125/May 15
Audubon S	CD	05-29	$150k g	3yo	9f	Turf	$150/May 15
Blame S	CD	05-29	$150k g	4&up	9f	Dirt	$150/May 15
Douglas Park S	CD	05-29	$110k a	4&up	8.5f	Turf	$0/May 22
Matt Winn S (G3)	CD	05-29	$150k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	$150/May 15
Regret S (G3T)	CD	05-29	$150k g	3yo f	9f	Turf	$150/May 15
Shawnee S	CD	05-29	$150k g	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	$150/May 15
Fancy Buckles S	CT	05-29	$50k a	3&up f/m S	4.5f	Dirt	$50/May 19
Musical Romance S	GP	05-29	$75k g	3&up f/m S	6.5f	Dirt	$0/May 16
David Semmes Memorial Hurdle (G3T)	GrM	05-29	$50k g	4&up	17f	Turf	$100/May 17
Virginia Gold Cup Timber	GrM	05-29	$50k g	5&up	32f	Turf	$100/May 17
Nebraska Princess S	HsP	05-29	$20k a	3yo f S	8f	Dirt	$0/May 14
Mr. Prospector S	Mth	05-29	$100k g	3&up	6f	Dirt	$100/May 14
Bob Bryant S	PrM	05-29	$60k g	3yo f S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 1.
Charles Whittingham S (G2T)	SA	05-29	$200k g	3&up	10f	Turf	$100/May 20
Daytona S (G3T)	SA	05-29	$100k g	4&up	6.5f	Turf	$100/May 20
Triple Bend S (G2)	SA	05-29	$200k g	3&up	7f	Dirt	$100/May 20
Fury S	WO	05-29	$125k g	3yo f R	7f	AW	$125/May 12
Paradise Creek S	Bel	05-30	$100k g	3yo	7f	Turf	$100/May 15
Meguro Kinen (G2T)	JRA	05-30	$1,173k a	4&up	12.5f	Turf	Closed on Apr 6.
Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) (G1T)	JRA	05-30	$4,115k a	3yo	12f	Turf	Closed on Apr 6.
Politely S	Mth	05-30	$75k g	3&up f/m	5f	Turf	$0/May 14
Monrovia S (G2T)	SA	05-30	$200k g	3&up f/m	6.5f	Turf	$100/May 20
Summertime Oaks (G2)	SA	05-30	$200k g	3yo f	8.5f	Dirt	$100/May 20
Dine S	SuR	05-30	$40k a	3yo S	6.5f	Dirt	$200/May 21
San Juan County Commissioners S	SuR	05-30	$30k a	3&up	9f	Dirt	$200/May 21
Queenston S	WO	05-30	$125k g	3yo R	7f	AW	$125/May 12
Proven Reserve S	AsD	05-31	$18k a	3yo	5f	Dirt	$0/May 20
Bouwerie S	Bel	05-31	$125k g	3yo f S	7f	Dirt	$125/May 15
Commentator H	Bel	05-31	$200k g	3&up S	8f	Dirt	$200/May 15
Critical Eye H	Bel	05-31	$200k g	3&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	$200/May 15
Kingston S	Bel	05-31	$125k g	4&up S	8.5f	Turf	$125/May 15
Mike Lee S	Bel	05-31	$125k g	3yo S	7f	Dirt	$125/May 15
Mount Vernon S	Bel	05-31	$125k g	4&up f/m S	8f	Turf	$125/May 15
All American S	GG	05-31	$100k g	3&up	8f	AW	$50/May 21
Soldier's Dancer S	GP	05-31	$75k g	3&up S	8.5f	Turf	$0/May 16
Chamberlain Bridge S	LS	05-31	$100k g	3&up	5f	Turf	$0/May 22
Memorial Day Sprint S	LS	05-31	$100k g	3&up f/m	6f	Dirt	$0/May 22
Ouija Board Distaff	LS	05-31	$200k g	3&up f/m	8f	Turf	$0/May 22
Steve Sexton Mile S (G3)	LS	05-31	$400k g	3&up	8f	Dirt	$0/May 22
Texas Derby	LS	05-31	$300k g	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	$0/May 22
Spruce Fir H	Mth	05-31	$75k g	3&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	$0/May 14
Gray's Lake S	PrM	05-31	$60k g	3yo c/g S	6f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 1.
Gamely S (G1T)	SA	05-31	$300k g	3&up f/m	9f	Turf	$100/May 20
Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita (G1)	SA	05-31	$300k g	3&up	10f	Dirt	$100/May 20
Shoemaker Mile (G1T) BC	SA	05-31	$300k g	3&up	8f	Turf	$100/May 20

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Wednesday, May 5, 2021.  This Kentucky Derby Recap will be depressing to some of you who didn’t get the Kentucky Derby Grid or subscribe to the Grid in any way.  This is mostly because we ran out of time last week to publish the Derby for Dummies after doing the last Derby Dozen.

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Each of those two would have provided free and easy ammo to get some nice Kentucky Derby exotics.  For example, as usual, the top 5 finishers in the Kentucky Derby this year were all from the top 8 in the Derby Dozen.  The top 4 were all in the top 10 of Derby for Dummies.

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Completing the Derby for Dummies chart that we began last week, using only the info available beforehand, we came up with the result that it would have indeed been a helpful tool.  3 of the top 4 in Derby for Dummies were part of the 6 that got an A score, including the winner. 

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Yes, it might surprise you to find out that Medina Spirit was indeed in the top 6 in both the final Derby Dozen and the posthumously published Derby for Dummies.  But there is good reason for that as will now be explained.

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In the latter, what we basically did for the fourth year in a row, is take the most important 5 subsets of the 80 factors in the expansive but inexpensive Kentucky Derby Grid, add the Derby Dozen as a 6^th category, and assign grades of A, B, and C, or no score, according to how good they are in that category.

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Then we simply add up the total scores, weighted 10, 7, and 4 for each A, B, and C, and give them a total score.  From that total score, we assign a final score of A or B. So it ends up looking like this.

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This expanded version shows you the Derby points, the Derby Dozen rank, the last 4 PF’s, and the all important sire, trainer, and jockey information.  Some of these are in bold type or highlighted, giving you some insight as to how and why they were scored in certain categories.

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Of course, if you got the Kentucky Derby Grid OR are already a subscriber to the Weekend Winners Club, you would have seen all this information already, and there’s even more information that meets the eye.  Clicking on a cell with the red marker in the top reveals more complete information. 

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Just using the Grid, I got an easy $250 Exacta, $850 Trifecta, and $700 something Pick 4 including the 3 races leading up to the Kentucky Derby.  Not a bad payday, but I would very much have liked to get the $10k superfecta as well. 

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However, boxing your top 7 horses in a 50 cent trifecta, which is well justified for the Kentucky Derby, is a reasonable cost of $105.  Whereas boxing the top 7 in a $1 minimum superfecta costs $840.  In fact, the most you can box for less than $360 is 5 horses.  But altogether a good day of betting.

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Of course, it’s a great time to join the WWC, since one month access will get you all the Preakness and Belmont Stakes materials you need to succeed, including the Grid for every major track and race day.  Great racing begins at Belmont Park this Saturday with 5 graded stakes.

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Check out all your options here and get the plan that’s best for you.

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Saturday, May 1, 2021.  The final down and dirty Derby Dozen was actually released in one of the Derby Lessons articles as a number in the ranking column, but if you didn’t catch it, this is what it looks like, relabeled as the column DD.

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For those smart enough to catch on to what that ranking was, and smarter enough to pay attention to the Derby Lesson series every year, you would know that the top 4 Kentucky Derby finishers are always from the top 10 in the Dozen, and 3 of the top 4 are almost always from the top 6.

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So take that in mind before you start shooting for some unreasonable long shots, and note that there are plenty of long shots already in the final Derby Dozen that you can use in your exotics and even WPS wagers.

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Update May 5, 2021

Indeed this year, it happened again, as the top 5 in the Kentucky Derby were all from the top 8 ranked in the final Derby Dozen, and the top 4 were all from the top 7.  That’s actually about normal for the Derby Dozen, but usually there’s an outlier that ranks 9 or 10.

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Anyway, stay tuned for some nice Preakness Picks next week, for some other great info and analysis for the next leg of the Triple Crown.

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It’s never too late to join the Weekend Winners Club.  Just 1 month of access will get you through the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes.  Check out the options here. No commitment necessary.

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April 30, 2021.  It’s only a day before the Kentucky Derby, so it’s time to get all your horses in a row so you can avoid the mad scramble and get your bets in ahead of time. Today we take a look at pedigree and how these horses should stack up.

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We’re going to cover all 20 contestants fastly and furiously, so look at the following chart first to see everything in a nutshell before we continue. You have the horse listed with the sire, sireline, dam, and dosage profile. Then the sire offspring average win distance, same for dam, and mud win% for sire crop.

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In past years, we were most heavily focused in on the RAN sireline, which is still very relevant, but AP Indy got on the board 2 years in a row in 2013, then In Excess got a winner, and Storm Cat finally, posthumously, had a Derby winner from his sireline with Justify and another with Authentic, proving once and for all that he’s the greatest sire of all time.

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Still, the RAN sireline has claimed 3 of the past 6 Kentucky Derby victories, and 58% of the winners from 1995 to present.  Now take a look at this chart where you can see the sireline from every Triple Crown Race winner from 1995- present to see what I’m talking about. 

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What you can discern is that the AP Indy sireline is now just as legit as that of RAN, and with the other Northern Dancer winners, the Storm Cat sireline is not just for sprinters anymore.  What typically matters more for distance is the mares they mate them to, and the longer AWD the better.

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Thus, the average winning distance is a telling matter.  If you were just to look at the dosage profiles, you would come up with Essential Quality, who covers every other base, and then Hidden Stash followed by King Fury, some good  long shots to include in your exotic bets.

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Including the rest of the pedigree profile, including AWD’s, now we have Rock Your World, Brooklyn Strong, Dynamic One, Hidden Stash, Soup and Sandwich, and Essential Quality.  There’s Hidden Stash Again, he could be a hidden gem in your exotics.  And EQ is completely validated in every study.

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It’s quite clear from this study that they all have excellent pedigrees top to bottom. In fact, I rated none of them less than B.  By far, most of the sires and grandsires involved are Triple Crown race winners or Breeders’ Cup winners, or have sired such winners. 

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Tomorrow: Don’t miss the famous Derby for Dummies where we put all these lessons together and come up with 3 of the 4 in the Derby superfecta, and hopefully even get that other long shot bugger that crashes the party.

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All of this information, and much more, is included in the Kentucky Derby Grid, with a limited amount still set for sale this week. It’s also a great time to join the Weekend Winners Club, since your first month gets you all Derby and Preakness materials and everything in between.  No hassle cancels, just login to Paypal and click cancel whenever you want. One full month access still guaranteed.

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April 29, 2021.  In today’s Derby lesson we will be analyzing the performance figures for the Kentucky Derby contestants.  Performance or speed figures indicate how well a horse performed in their prior races, and while some vendor’s PF’s are better than others, none of them are infallible.

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We will primarily look at the Grid PF’s since that’s what we manufacture here, but also included are Beyers because they are publicly available for the Derby horses on the DRF site. Beyers are the oldest type of speed figures ever made, and still have some relevance today.  

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Check out the mini-grid below.  The Grid PF’s are labeled PF1, 2, etc, appropriately. A full Grid has PF’s for the past 10 races and composites on the right.  For this purpose, we also have Beyers on the right labeled with By1,2 3.  The full legend is available below the Grid for the color coding etc. 

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So let’s apply this methodology to this year’s race at hand.  You will notice that Highly Motivated, Essential Quality, and Rock Your World have the best 2 of 3 PF average according to the Grid.  You can see the next two are Soup and Sandwich, and Hot Rod Charlie.

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Beyer Elimination Method.  The last column shows the results of this elimination method.  You take the highest low BF in the last 3 races as the comparative figure.  The other horses must be able to match or beat this in their last 3 races in order to be a BEM contender. We now have 8 contenders that can beat or match the 95 from Essential Quality.

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What I propose to narrow it down even further is a modified Grid Elimination Method (GEM*) if you will, and it has a nice ring to it.   Take the last 3 races and use highest low Grid PF of that set as the standard.  Now they have to beat or match the 95 of Highly Motivated.  6 horses qualify on the GEM.

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Now if we combine the BEM and GEM contenders, we have narrowed it down to only 4 horses.  Wouldn’t that be nice?  They are:  Essential Quality, Highly Motivated, Rock Your World, and Hot Rod Charlie.  There is good reason to believe the actual Derby winner will come from this group.

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Backing it up from our Derby 211 lesson is that they all have high percentage trainers, including Doug O, a two time Derby winner, and 4 prior Derby winning trainers (if you include Prat who won by a ridiculous DQ in 2020).  That gives us even more ammo to believe 1 of these 4 will win it.

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You will also notice that these 4 steeds are all top 5 in lowest morning line odds, proving that Mike Battaglia knows what the hell he’s talking about.  The other top 5 odds horse is Known Agenda, who fits the GEM method but missed the Beyer by 1 point.  Needless to say, he’ll be in my exotics.

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If we were able to publish the Bris figures, which is not possible because I’ve been threatened by sleazy lawyers, we would see that the Bris Elimination Method would narrow it down further to only 3, eliminating Hot Rod Charlie.  I personally refuse to do that, but take it for what it is.

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As with other methods in this Derby lesson series, we are able to narrow it down to 4 possible winners and a few other key horses to use in the exotics.  Combined with those other aspects, is how we will arrive at our final exotic bets, both horizontal and vertical.

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Thus endeth today’s lesson.  Stay tuned to this same channel for tomorrow’s surprise lesson.

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You can get the full Derby Grid with much more information and composite figures here.  It’s also a great time to join the WWC because if you join this week, you will automatically get all the Derby, Oaks, and Preakness materials, and everything else in between, including great stakes racing at all your favorite tracks..  Check out the options here.

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April 28, 2021.  In this edition of the Kentucky Derby Lessons, we shall cover the major prep races leading up to the Derby, and their inherent relativism.  We will focus on the Baffert Era which began in 1997 when he won the Kentucky Derby in two consecutive years.

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Obviously, the final prep race for these contestants is important to tune up for the Derby, but it is also a very important factor in determining if they can actually win the big one. It may not surprise you that the last 10 Kentucky Derby winners ALL won their final prep, and in 9 cases it was a Big 6 final prep.

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In the 24 race span from 1997-2020, the Kentucky Derby winner had won their final prep 67% of the time, and another 25% were runners up in their final prep, making it an astounding 92% that were top 2 in their final prep.  Only 2 winners weren’t top 2; they finished 4^th in their final prep.

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In only 4 of the 24 races (17%), was the final prep for the winner not a Big 6 Prep.  To define that, it’s one of the 6 Grade 1 or 2 races leading up to the Derby.  In modern terms since the point system was invented, it’s a G1 or G2 worth 100 points (or more) leading up to the Run for the Roses.  Take a look:

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(Last year the races in question were quite different, because everything last year was out of whack, including the running of the Belmont, Travers, and Haskell before the Kentucky Derby.  The usual Big 6 races were either cancelled or run several months beforehand.  We’re back to normal this year.)

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This grid also shows that the Ky Derby runner up also finished 1 or 2 in their final prep the vast majority of the time.  79% of the horses running 1 and 2 in the Kentucky Derby also ran 1 or 2 in their final prep, and in 85% of the races, their final prep was a Big 6 race.

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Thus, a major predictor of a winner or runner up finish in the Kentucky Derby, is that they finished 1^st or 2^nd in their final Prep, and the value increases if it was a Big 6 prep, which is why it is a critical criteria in the Derby Grid and also in any study attempting to predict a Derby champ.

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Note that 11 of the12 this year are participants in the run for the roses, so we only narrowed the field down by about half.  But considering the last 10 champs all actually won their final prep, we can most likely narrow it down to the Big 6 winners just using this study.  
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In further Derby Lessons we’ll continue to narrow it down beyond that, so stay tuned each day.
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To get the Kentucky Derby Grid with over 80 historical, pedigree, and critical criteria, check here.

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April 27, 2021.  In this year’s Kentucky Derby training series, we will review some handicapping elements used to select your top horses for the big race.  How important are trainers and jockeys in the Kentucky Derby?  Answer: they both have significant impact values in this race. 

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Consider this:  In the 6 editions of the Derby from 2015-2020, only one jockey and one trainer won it fo the first time.  The rest of them were ALL repeat offenders, most notably Baffert with 3 of the 6 wins.  Victor Espinoza and John Velazquez each had 2 wins during that span. 

Bold indicates a repeat winner, blue a multiple repeater. In the past 14 runs for the roses, you can see that 5 trainers were repeat winners, and 9 jockeys were winning it for the second or third time.  This does seem to favor the more experienced Kentucky Derby horsemen does it not?

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There are reasons why some trainers and jockeys are hoarding the Derby wins.  First and foremost, in general the top percentage trainers get the best horses, and the top winning jockeys get the best mounts.  So, many of the same trainers and jockeys end up in this race every year, and win again.

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We put together a concise little chart of the field to make it easier for you to see.  Again in blue we have horsemen that have already won the Roses before.  In fact all of the trainers in blue are repeat winners already. 

Also in bold but not tinted, are top horsemen that have either won a Triple Crown race or are so highly accomplished, that it would be surprising to NOT see them in the Derby winner’s circle before they retire.  That’s not to say the remaining horsemen are not capable, just not as likely.

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You can see from the chart that the top horses in this year’s contest, in terms of points or odds, for the most part have highly accomplished trainers and jockeys.  Also note that the Win and ITM columns for such trainer stats corroborate this notion.

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Note that the favorite would be a first time winning trainer, but one that has been winning a lot of big races over the past year.  The same could be said perennially for Chad Brown and Asmussen, who is hard to believe hasn’t won this race yet.

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Thus endeth today’s lesson about trainers and jocks. Stay tuned to Kentucky Derby Central for another lesson every day this week, and try to keep up. This week goes by rapidly and furiously every year.

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Get the Derby Grid with over 80 different factors including historical, pedigree, and performance, to help you get the right winner this year.

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You’re welcome.  Good luck.

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Sunday, April 25.  Gulfstream Park is the target for TVG’s Sunday Super 5 contest today, with races 6-10 comprising the handicapping competition.  The contest requires picking only 1 horse to win in each race, with a $5000 prize pool for winners that pick all 5 correctly.  

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It’s like a Pick 5 but much more difficult because you only get 1 pick in each race.  Not as difficult as yesterday’s Super 8, which is basically impossible. A handful of top competitors got 6 wins, which is quite commendable.  They got to split the $5000 prize pool just like the Super 5, but if anyone got all 8 they would have won $250k.

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Today’s weather in Miami is fair and cloudy, and it’s actually raining at the park as I write this at 1230pm, but a few rain clouds are just passing thru, and the tracks are rated fast and firm.  First you’ll want to download today’s free grid and try to win this contest.

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You can see that all 5 races are competitive and have a number of possibilities. In today’s analysis, I won’t be breaking down the races for you as usual.  This is an experiment to see if anyone using today’s Gulfstream Grid wins the Super 5, and if so I want to hear from you. 

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You can get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races right here. It’s a great time to join the Weekend Winners Club with the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes all coming up within the next 6 weeks.  Look at the options here and choose the plan that’s best for you.

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Saturday, April 24, 2021.  Pimlico is hosting their second biggest racing day of the year, with 6 stakes races and five 3yo contests, featuring the Federico Tesio, designed for horses training up to the Preakness Stakes. The Weber City Miss is the formal Pimlico prep for the Black Eyed Susan next month.  

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There are 11 races on the card and over 90 horses competing after morning scratches.  The weather in Baltimore is typical for this time of year, cloudy and cool with temps reaching the upper 60s.  The tracks are listed as fast and firm, so the MTO’s probably won’t run.  First you’ll want to download today’s Free Pimlico Grid here.  Morning scratches processed.

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R4 2:19ET 9f D OClm 35000n2x 3 UP 

I don’t see much value in the first 3 races so we’ll start here.  It looks quite chalky, but I’m giving 4 Workin On A Dream a good chance with top EP, first time around 2 turns. With only 7 entries, it’s unlikely his odds will hold up anywhere close to the 20-1 morning line but still might get double digits.

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R6 3:25ET 8.5f T DahliaB100k 3 UP FM

The top 2 favorites in this race look to have it locked up, but it takes more than 2 to complete a trifecta and superfecta.  Because there are only 2 fillies with QP over 4 in this race, I think Lagom at 20-1 ML could factor in.  Also in a turf route you always have to consider top LP, for which 1 Fed Up Fired Up is tied for tops at 20-1 ML.  3 Xanthique also has good LP and is an EP4.

Prediction:  6 9 3 1 10

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R7 3:58ET 6f D FrnkWhtlyB100k 3 UP 

The thing I like about this race is that it’s wide open.  I can make a case for the chalk as well as several long shots.  For example, Arthur’s Hope at 12-1 ML has top QP and top EP in a dirt sprint with not many early speed competitors. Lebda at 8-1 has 2^nd highest QP and EP, then Press My Bets at 12-1.  In fact, the only one I don’t see possibly hitting the board, I won’t mention because then he will find his way into the super and make me look like an idiot.  I can foresee a lot of wheeling and dealing in this superfecta, but I do think 5 Whereshetoldmetogo will win it at low odds unfortunately.

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R8 4:31ET 8.5f T HenryClrkL100k 3 UP 

Again the chalk looks legit, but in a turf route I’m not going to ignore the 5 Ninety One Assault at 8-1 with top LP.  Nor can I overlook the 6 Dinar with top EP and high PF going at 20-1 ML, first time on turf.  Early runner Papal Law at 20-1 ML can factor in also considering there’s no true front runner.  Again, wide open race.

Prediction:  4 7 6 5 1 2

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R9 5:04ET 8.5f D WebrCtyMsB125k 3 YO F

The short field of 6 after morning scratches is not very appetizing, but it will be interesting to see what the odds of 6 Exogen at ML 15-1 will end up at.  She could be quite dangerous first time at 2 turns, and again this race looks somewhat open. 

Prediction:  5 7 6 4

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R10 5:37ET 9f D FdrcoTesoB125k 3 YO 

This is the widest open 8 horse race I’ve seen in a while.  I can make a case for each entrant but that would take up an entire page.  The fact that Tiz Mandate has top LP with odds of 12-1 ML is interesting. I think Zertz at 20-1 got a bad ride in his first route race, because it doesn’t measure up to his prior 2 races and I think he’ll improve.  Shackled Love with twice the ML odds than Maythehorsebewithu makes no sense.  Definitely some wheeling and dealing is in order here.

Prediction:  Utter Chaos

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R11 6:07ET 5f T KTLthrbryB100k 3 UP 

The last race of the day also offers some good value, with 11 mostly competitive entries. Note that of the top for EP ratings include 6 Love You Much, an S2 at 12-1 ML and So Street at 6-1.  It’s hard to imagine the late runners taking a 5f turf race, but just in case, 10 and 13 have 30-1 and 50-1 ML’s. 

Prediction:  7 8 5 6 10 13

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That’s it for today’s analysis.  Stay tuned for more great analysis and info.  Next week we shall have a new Kentucky Derby analysis article every day of the week for a different aspect of the race, so keep your bookmark set on Kentucky Derby Central.

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Remember, you can get The Grid for all your favorite tracks and races right here, sign up anytime, no commitment, cancel anytime.  It’s a great time to join the Weekend Winners Club, with the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont coming up all within the next 2 months.

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Good luck!

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April 19. This is a public health service announcement.  An annual ailment called Kentucky Derby Fever is again spreading rapidly throughout North America as it does every year.  It has also been crossing oceans into other continents and is slated to reach pandemic proportions. There is no known vaccine.

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What can you do about it?  You could hide inside a cave with no sports media. But no protection is needed, as the illness only affects a person’s mental state, causing them to think about the Kentucky Derby instead of less important matters. 

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For example, your boss may issue your schedule for the week and you say:
That’s a Known Agenda.

Or, the boss asks if you’re driven, and you reply:
That’s an Essential Quality and I’m Highly Motivated.

Or you go to a restaurant and tell your mate: 
This appetizer is gonna Rock Your World.

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You get the picture. The Derby Fever condition also can cause people to spontaneously go out and buy a new seersucker suit, or a sexy dress and matching hat, whether you need them or not.  

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The first thing you should do is stay tuned to Kentucky Derby Central, where the Derby point standings and Championship Series race results are all posted, in addition to analysis and articles specific to the Kentucky Derby that will begin being posted this week.

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It’s also a GREAT time to join the Weekend Winners Club and I’ll tell you why.  Just two months will get you through the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont, and all the great racing in between.  Or choose a 3 month plan to cover the 193 graded stakes races from here until the end of July.

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On the Derby Grid page, you can check out all the various options for joining the WWC or just getting the Derby Grid.  Plus, it lists the successes by the Derby Grid in the past decade or so you can see the incredible value.  

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Stay tuned for some great analysis, statistics, and insight coming up on Kentucky Derby Central, including the final Derby Double Dozen which should be released by the end of this week.  The Derby is coming up quickly on May 1.
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Remember to vote for your winner and first alternate in the poll on the left if you’re using a full screen browser.