Weekend Winners Club

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September 4, 2020.  It’s only a day before the Kentucky Derby, so it’s time to get all your horses in a row so you can avoid the mad scramble and get your bets in ahead of time. Today we take a look at pedigree and how these horses should stack up.

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We’re going to cover all 18 contestants fastly and furiously, so look at the following chart first to see everything in a nutshell before we continue. You have the horse listed with the sire, sireline, dam, and dosage profile. Then the sire offspring average win distance, same for dam, and mud win% for sire crop.

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In past years, we were heavily focused in on the RAN sireline, which is still very relevant, but AP Indy got on the board 2 years in a row in 2013, In Excess got one on the board, and Storm Cat finally, posthumously, had a Derby winner from his sireline with Justify. 

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There were only 3 RAN sireline winners in the last 7 years, but still 56% of Derby winners starting in 1995. Now take a look at this chart where you can see the sireline from every Triple Crown Race winner from 1995- present to see what I’m talking about. 

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What you can discern is that the AP Indy sireline is now just as legit as that of RAN, and with the other Northern Dancer winners, the Storm Cat sireline is not just for sprinters anymore.  What typically matters more for distance is the mares they mate them to. 

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Thus, the average winning distance is a telling matter.  If you were to just look at the dosage profile and AWD’s, you would probably just assign Mr Big News the win.  The speed figures tell a different story, but keep in mind that his mare is in Europe, where her offspring are running 1.5 to 2 mile turf races.

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For an all American pedigree, it’s hard not to like Sole Volante.  Storm Cat on top and a Kingmambo (sire of Belmont winner Lemon Drop Kid) mare on bottom.  Bred for distance, and was the best closer in the field before having a bad day at the Belmont Stakes, ironically. 

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You have to like the MAW of Tiz the Law as well, even if his dosage is missing some classic points, those stallions simply haven’t registered yet on the scale, because he’s literally a proven winner in G1 races at 9 and 10f at  this point.  The Travers proved he doesn’t have any apparent distance problem.  

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What you have to keep in mind with the dosage points nowadays, is that horses are retiring to stud so early now, and it takes a few years for them to get points in the dosage index, because those points are based on their crop performances.  Which is why the AWD is probably more accurate in a pinch.

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Also, in the far right column we have included the 2017 stud fee of their sires, which is a good indicator of what experienced horsemen think about their sires.  In this case, the two most expensive sires are both horses that I wouldn’t bet on to win, and one may scratch I’m hearing.

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The third most expensive sire also has the shortest dam’s crop AWD of any in the field, and is not one that I believe can succeed in a G1 at 10f.  The two tied for 4^th in 2017 sire stud fee are also two that I wouldn’t bet on to win the Derby. 

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The conclusion is that they all have nice pedigrees, and those with the best pedigree on paper aren’t the same as those who have been the best on the track so far.  Look at NY Traffic, sire tied for 2^nd lowest stud fee in 2017, and he’s one of the top contenders and point earners. How’s that for insight?

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All of this information, and much more, is included in the Kentucky Derby Grid, with a limited amount still set for sale this week. It’s also a great time to join the Weekend Winners Club, since your first month gets you all Derby and Preakness materials and everything in between.  No hassle cancels, just login to Paypal and click cancel whenever you want. One full month access still guaranteed.

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Friday, September 4, 2020.  The race of the day is obviously the Kentucky Oaks, but you probably don’t need us to tell you Swiss Skydiver will win at even money, Speech will get 2^nd at 3-1, and Gamine will be a huge underlay 3^rd at 8-5, making for the lowest paying trifecta in Oaks history. It shall be a good race no doubt, but not good for betting, at all.

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The race that caught my eye on today’s card is the G2 Turf Sprint, the last race of the day.  Specifically, in a sprint with not a lot of early speed, the top EP rating is 30-1 on the ML.  This is after he checked hard near the quarter poll and finished only 1 length behind the 7-2 ML favorite in the Shakertown. 

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Just Might not be 30-1 at post time is my guess.  Not anywhere near that, but could still be a long shot of some sort. Wellabled also looks quite strong going in, won last 2 turf races before a bit flat on the poly, but 3^rd in EP and the only E8 in the field.  Chief Cicatriz at 15-1? No effin way.  See how I ranked them below.

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So that’s the race of the day.  As a 5.5f race, it will be guaranteed to end in less than 65 seconds, but it will be the most exciting minute of the day, and hopefully the most rewarding.

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To get the Grid for all races Derby and Oaks Day, and any other track this weekend desired, click here. It’s a great time to join since your first month will get you all Derby and Preakness and everything in between. Cancel anytime, no hassle, just login to Paypal and end it whenever, still guaranteed one full month access.

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September 3, 2020.  In today’s Derby lesson we will be analyzing the performance figures for the Kentucky Derby contestants.  Performance or speed figures indicate how well a horse performed in their prior races, and while some PF’s are better than others, none of them are infallible.

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We will primarily look at the Grid PF’s since that’s what we manufacture here, but also included are Beyers because they are publicly available for the Derby horses on the DRF site. Beyers are the oldest type of speed figures ever made, and still have some relevance today.  

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Check out the mini-grid below.  The Grid PF’s are labeled PF1, 2, etc, appropriately. A full Grid has 10 past races and composites on the right.  For this purpose, we have Beyers on the right labeled with By1,2 3.  The full legend is available below the Grid for the color coding etc. 

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What stands out the most is the last race PF and Beyer for Tiz the Law.  It’s bold because it was within ½ furlong of the Derby distance.  In this case it was the Travers so it’s the exact same distance.  He would have been the favorite without that race, but that’s the reason he is so heavily favored now.

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The only other triple digit PF was by Honor AP in the SA Derby, although Authentic was very close in the Haskell.  For the Beyers, nobody else had one over 102 as you can see, but 5 of them have reached triple digits, so they are considered Beyer qualifiers for the Derby win.

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Beyer Elimination Method.  The last column shows the results of this elimination method.  You take the highest low BF in the last 3 races as the comparative figure.  The other horses must be able to match or beat this in order to be a BEM contender.

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Authentic has the top low BF of 98 so that’s what the others must beat.  The BEM column on the right shows which ones are BEM contenders with a Y.  That added another 3 contenders that didn’t have triple digit BF’s, so that didn’t narrow it down, but it gave us some more key horses to use in our exotics.  Because you’re not going to use just 5 horses in your super are you?

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What I propose to narrow down the champ is a modified Grid Elimination Method (GEM*) which has a good ring to it.  Take the best 3 of the last 4 races and use the highest low Grid PF of that set as the standard.  Now they have to beat or match the 99 by Tiz The Law, which gives you only 3 other possible winners.

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You could do the same thing with the Beyers and do a BEM*, and get the same results plus the addition of Thousand Words, in other words the same ones that have 3 digit BF’s.  I think the main reason his last BF is so high is because he beat Honor AP, but the Grid is not as impressed by that race and neither are Bris or Timeform.  

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Needless to say, I won’t be discluding 1000 Words from my exotics, because he cost a million bucks and is trained by Baffert.  I will also be including the others that check the BEM box at various spots in the exotics. 

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One revelation by looking at the Grid, is that the best 4 horses are filling up the last 4 post positions, unless you count the former million dollar baby.  I’ve never seen the posts shape up in this manner before.  Combined with the fact that 3 of them are frontrunning types, it shall be very interesting.

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As with other methods in this Derby lesson series, we are able to narrow it down to 4 possible winners and a few other key horses to use in the exotics.  Combined with those other aspects, is how we arrive at our final exotics.

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Thus endeth today’s lesson.  Stay tuned to this same channel for tomorrow’s surprise lesson.

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You can get the full Derby Grid with much more information and composite figures here.  It’s also a great time to join the WWC because if you join this week, you will automatically get all the Derby, Oaks, and Preakness materials, and everything else in between, including great stakes racing at Saratoga, Santa Anita, and Kentucky Downs, all other major tracks.  Check out the options here.

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September 2, 2020.  The Derby Dirty Dozen had to be redone again, a week later, as another rash of defections went through, another pointless horse was added, and a formerly on then off trail again was on again as a last minute entry that wasn’t on anyone’s radar as of last week.  

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By pointless, I mean that there are now two horses in the field who earned no Derby points, even though there are over 70 horses that have earned points this year.  The two are thus pointless, but that doesn’t mean they can’t affect the outcome of the race or even hit the board.

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So we redid the Derby almost dozen, because there are less than 12 even worth ranking at this point.  So we rank the top ten, mostly by removing the withdrawn horses, but also because the predicted pace scenario has changed because of them.  Interesting that the top horses all drew outside somehow.

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Derby Dirty Dozen September 2 2020

Rank	Horse	Sire	Trainer	Points	$takes*	Last	Race
1	Tiz the Law	Constitution	Barclay Tagg	372	$1,972,400	1st	Travers G1 Aug.8
2	Honor A. P.	Honor Code	John Shirreffs	140	$340,000	2nd	Shared Belief Aug.1
3	Authentic	Into Mischief	Bob Baffert	200	$980,000	1st	Haskell G1 July 18
4	Ny Traffic	Cross Traffic	Joseph Saffie Jr	110	$472,820	2nd	Haskell G1 July 18
5	Max Player	Honor Code	Steve Asmussen	60	$337,500	3rd	Travers G1 Aug.8
6	Sole Volante	Karakontie	Patrick Biancone	30	$273,510	6th	Belmont G1 June 20
7	Thousand Words	Pioneerof The Nile	Bob Baffert	83	$297,000	1st	Shared Belief Aug.1
8	Money Moves	Candy Ride	Todd Pletcher	0	$0	2nd	OC62.5k Sar July 25
9	King Guillermo	Uncle Mo	Juan Carlos Avila	90	$317,050	2nd	Ark.Derby G1 May 2
10	South Bend	Algorithms	Stanley Hough	18	$291,902	4th	Travers G1 Aug.8
18	Enforceable	Tapit	Mark Casse	43	$314,550	4th	Blue Grass G2 July 11
18	Major Fed	Ghostzapper	Greg Foley	38	$179,100	2nd	Indy Derby G3 July 8
18	Storm the Court	Court Vision	Peter Eurton	36	$1,273,851	2nd	La Jolla G3(T) Aug.9
18	Attachment Rate	Hard Spun	Dale Romans	35	$93,675	2nd	Ellis Pk Derby Aug.9
18	Finnick the Fierce	Dialed In	Rey Hernandez	25	$121,700	7th	Blue Grass G2 July 11
18	Winning Impression	Will Take Charge	Dallas Stewart	20	$54,822	7th	Ellis Pk Derby Aug.9
18	Necker Island	Hard Spun	Chris Hartman	14	$74,808	3rd	Ellis Pk Derby Aug.9
18	Mr. Big News	Giant's Causeway	Bret Calhoun	0	$129,500	6th	Blue Grass G2 July 11

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17 TIZ THE LAW (3-5)  If he’s not #1 on any other rankings you’re looking at, burn the piece of paper you saw it on and block the site from all your browsers, including the one on your phone. He’s dominated all 4 races this year, adding 3 G1 wins to one he got last year.  His only subpar race is still one that most in this field would be proud of, a narrow 3^rd in a G3 at Churchill last year.  The only chink in his armor thus may be the sloppy sealed track that he had trouble tractioning on that day.

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16 HONOR A.P (5-1)  The most lightly raced top September Derby contender of all time, he still only has 5 lifetime races.  But they were all quality races, with 3 runner-up’s and 2 wins including the G1 Santa Anita Derby, where he made use of a fast pace up front to deliver a devastating closing move.  The fact that he’s been used sparingly is likely because he’s the 3^rd most expensive horse in the field, sold as a yearling for $850 grand.  So now it’s time for him to start paying off that credit card.

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18 AUTHENTIC (8-1)  Again with only 5 lifetime races, 4 this year, and again all quality races, a 2^nd and 4 wins including the Haskell last out.  He did hold off Honor AP in the San Felipe but suffered from a speed duel in the SA Derby and folded but still held 2^nd.  Things are looking up for him this week after further defections.  As the only true frontrunner E8 in the field, he can dictate the pace.  The 5^th most expensive colt in the field, it’s also time for him to provide some ROI.

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15 NY TRAFFIC (20-1)  4^th in Derby points, 4^th in the Derby Grid, and now 4^th in the Dozen.  The only historical scores he missed out on in the Grid were that he’s not a graded stakes winner and his last prep was 7 weeks out.  However, he did finish 2^nd in 3 straight graded races, including the G1 Haskell where he only lost by a nose after bearing down on Authentic down the stretch.  For a near frontrunner, he holds up well in deep stretch, including the 9.5f Louisiana Derby where he went 2^nd gate to wire. 

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2 MAX PLAYER (30-1).  I’ve liked this one all year, in all 3 races, but he keeps improving.  Only 5 starts, but the in the last 3 he followed up a G3 win with 3^rd in the Belmont and Travers G1s.  He has a late running style and is 4^th in Power, 5^th in Stamina, and LP.  That was all under trainer Linda Rice, and now he’s in the care of Steve Asmussen, selected likely for his vast Triple Crown experience.  He could be sitting on a big race, but would like a fast pace scenario up front to make a big closing move.

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12 SOLE VOLANTE (30-1)  Stop gasping.  Yes he’s 15^th  in points, finished 6^th in the Belmont, and doesn’t appear on anyone else’s rankings, but that’s because they don’t have the Grid.  If one bad race defined a career, then people wouldn’t know the names Real Quiet or Charismatic from Triple Crowns past. The fact is he has top LP in the Grid, earning that distinction with 3 straight excellent closing moves before the Belmont. He may have just not been able to get footing in the Big Sandy.  But top LP counts for a LOT in the Derby.  Put it this way, last year’s top two LP were Maximum Security and Country House, in that order.  Ring a bell?

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10 THOUSAND WORDS (15-1)  At last we get to the most expensive horse in the field, he sold at Keeneland as a yearling for $1 million.  Then sent directly to the Baffert barn, where he has been inconsistent and his two biggest wins were in December and Feb.  Since then he’s had only 1 victory in 4 races, going gate to wire in the Shared Belief.  It’s true he beat Honor AP in that race, but setting a slow pace up front was the key.  Considering Baffert as the trainer, the million dollar baby will likely start earning some real money real soon.  

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7 MONEY MOVES (30-1)  Normally an optional claimer with only 3 career races and no stakes experience would never make this list, but this is no normal year.  The fact is, this is the 2^nd most expensive horse in the field at $975k, and he’s put up big efforts for Todd in all 3, winning 2 and missing by a neck while closing in at 9f last out at Saratoga.  If he wins the Derby, all remaining “rules” of Derby champs will have all been broken.  I think he’s too green to win but he could turn some heads on race day, improving again.

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6 KING GUILLERMO (20-1)  He finally makes this list for the first time, only because several horses were withdrawn over the past week.  He seems to be a “wise guy” horse with a lot of backing coming on now, which probably means he’ll do nothing.  I have serious problems with a horse that hasn’t raced in 4 months, but the fact is there isn’t a whole lot of speed in this field anymore, and the horse he couldn’t catch in the Arkansas Derby isn’t running today.  So he’s got a shot to hit the board.

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8 SOUTH BEND (50-1)  The last minute entry is already in the top 10, because dirt or turf, he’s still a good late runner.  With the right ride, he could hit the board.  Unfortunately, he gets Tyler Gaffalione, whom I was hoping would NOT be in this year’s Derby.  At best, he’ll get anxious, knock over several in the stretch, and run up on the heels of Tiz the Law, and fuck it up for everyone.  Let’s just hope nobody has to come off the board this year because of the idiot.  

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If the horse didn’t make the top 10 above, it’s because I just can’t see them winning at all and only a very small chance to hit the board unless Tyler takes out half the field in the stretch.  Stay tuned to Kentucky Derby Central on the menu link for more great articles and analysis, and our 2020 Derby lesson series. Good luck!

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For the Full Derby Grid with 80 different factors to help you reel in big exotics this year click here. It’s a great time to subscribe to the Grid. Just 1 month will get you all the Derby and Preakness materials, and everything in between. Cancel anytime, no hassle, just login to Paypal and end it whenever.

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