Weekend Winners Club

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Monday, March 18, 2019. Oaklawn Park had a big race day on Saturday, picking up some slack for the cancellation of the San Felipe by adding a 2nd Rebel Stakes. They officially stamped at least 2 Kentucky Derby tickets given that each Rebel G2 win was worth 37.5 points, and 2 others look to have acquired enough to get in as well.
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After a brief recap of the Kentucky Derby implications, what we have to do next of course is look at what impact the Grid had in respect to winners and payouts, which is always fun to prove what a valuable tool it is. Then we will actually break down the fractions and who the fastest horses on the day were.
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KENTUCKY DERBY POINTS IMPLICATIONS
As shown in the Kentucky Derby Points leaderboard, the two Rebel winners will get in to the Kentucky Derby if desired. Long Range Toddy already had points and Omaha Beach won’t need more than the 37.5 he earned. 2 others look like they earned enough points with their Rebel runs.
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Improbable did not have enough points but the 25 now should be enough. Gunmetal Gray only got 4th but that may end up being the points he needed to run for the roses, since the cutoff is normally 20. BC Juvenile winner Game Winner already had enough points with the 30 he had coming in.
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OAKLAWN SATURDAY WITH THE GRID
Now for the fun part, Grid After Action Review (GAAR, we just made it up.) The Grid started and ended the day by providing some great long shots, including in both Rebel runs. Here are the highlights.
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R1 2:05ET 6f D Md Sp Wt 3 YO: 7-1 winner had 3rd EP rating, just 2 points from the top mark with 95. He also had the best trainer percentages shown in the Grid.
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R2 2:38ET 12f D Alw 8000s 3 UP: 19-1 winner was top 4 in LP and Stamina, and just 1 point off top Power ranking with 92.
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R3 3:11ET 8.5f D Md Sp Wt 3 YO: 6-1 winner had top LP and 3rd in Stamina just 2 points off top mark
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The next 4 races were mostly chalky in the top 3 or 4 positions, including the 5 horse Azeri field.
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R8 5:57ET 8.5f D Rebel-G2 3 YO: 8-1 winner Long Range Toddy was top 3 in LP, Stamina, and Power, trailing only Improbable and Galilean in those categories, who finished 2nd and 3rd at low odds. In 4th was 9-1 Extra Hope, who was top 4 or 5 in all categories. Easy super in a 7 horse field.

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R9 6:29ET 8.5f D EssexHL350k 4 UP: 15-1 winner Rated R Superstar was 2nd in LP and 4th in Stamina rating. In 2nd was 6-1 Snapper Sinclair, 1st in Speed, 2nd in Stamina, and top 3 in all other categories. In 3rd was the favorite, and 4th was 19-1 Nanoosh, 2nd in Power and top 4 in other cats.
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R10 7:06ET 8.5f D Rebel-G2 3 YO: Omaha Beach wasn’t a long shot at 4-1, but was 2nd in Power and top 4 in other categories. Game Winner was the fav and obvious key horse. It was a hard reach to Market King in 3rd but he actually was 3rd in EP. Needless to say at 48-1 he was overlooked by most. Gunmetal Gray in 4th at 11-1 was top 5 in Stamina and LP.

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R11 7:38ET 6f D Md Sp Wt 3 YO: The Grid doesn’t really give you 1st time starters as winners, but at 20-1 with Asmussen training, and the great trainer stat percentages shown, it would have been a great win bet and inclusion in exotics.
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So there were some great long shots and value plays according to the Grid, and some nice resulting exotic and WPS payouts as well. Don’t believe?
Check out the Oaklawn Grid here, provided free last Saturday.
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ANALYSIS OF FRACTIONS AND TIMES FOR SATURDAY’S OAKLAWN.
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The format of Oaklawn’s Saturday card lends itself to a way in which we can make a lot of comparisons between the races and evaluate many more 3yo’s than in just the 2 Rebel runs. For example, there were 7 races at 8.5f and 1 at 8f. There were also 7 3yo races, including 5 at the same distance of 8.5.
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For our purposes here we’re going to mostly skip over the two 6f races and just mention that Youvesaiditall won the Battleofthebulge in those 2 as the fastest 3yo of the day with his 6f of 1:10.50 seconds. The 12f race is not valid for any comparisons either as it was much slower than any other.
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Not too surprisingly, the 2 fastest 8.5f times of the day were registered by the Rebel runners, the top 4 of which were very close in times. For our purposes we’ll approximate fractions of a full length which is generally accepted to be about 0.17 seconds.
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The fastest 8.5 furlong times of the day were:
1:42.42 Omaha Beach, 1st in Rebel 2
1:42.43 Game Winner, 2nd in Rebel 2
1:42.49 Long Range Toddy, 1st in Rebel 1
1:42.53 Improbable, 2nd in Rebel 1
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So the top 4 3yo’s at 8.5f were definitely the Rebel winners and runners up, beating the times of the winners of the older horse stakes races. If the 3yos were theoretically in the same race they would all be within a length of each other.
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As it was, both of the Rebels did play out much differently, as Long Range Toddy didn’t lead until the last few strides of Rebel 1 while Omaha Beach clung for dear life to his early lead which posted slightly faster fractions throughout than the Rebel 1 win.
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Indeed the fastest 6f of those that went 8.5f was Omaha Beach, tied with Nanoosh who finished 4th in the Essex. In addition, the Rebel 2 had a field of 10 compared to the prior field of 7. So we could be correct in deducing that the 2nd Rebel run was the strongest with Omaha Beach and Game Winner.
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But the top 4 were all very close, and both races were ran differently. In addition, with Game Winner gaining with every stride, it was clear in that particular race he would have passed Omaha Beach with just another 0.5f. “In that race” being the key words. In a 10f race, Omaha Beach may not run that fast early either.
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So, all of these comparisons are somewhat subjective, and any deductions speculative. But with Game Winner coming in as the top ranked 3yo and barely losing to the best runner of the day, we can also deduce that these 4 are probably the cream of the crop of 3yos.
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They also just appeared in the top 10 of the 3yo Beyer Leaderboard today, with Game Winner and Omaha Beach in a virtual tie for 4th . On a related note, Alwaysmining is just 1 Beyer behind them after registering his 4th consecutive stakes at Laurel in the Private Terms.
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The results for that race, the Rebels, and all other relevant 3yo races are posted on the Kentucky Derby Prep Resultss page. Stay tuned to the Kentucky Derby Central Page for more analysis, results, articles, rankings, and of course changes in the point standings.
Derby Double Dozen will also be updated this week.

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Friday, March 15, 2019. Hot Springs, Arkansas is the hot spot for thoroughbred racing today, as Oaklawn Park hosts the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, times two, worth 37.5 points to each winner and at least 2 Kentucky Derby tickets which each winner will earn.
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First, a brief explanation is in order. With the indefinite closure of Santa Anita Park, which reopened for light training for 2 days, only to have another horse euthanized after galloping, the San Felipe G2, the main west coast Kentucky Derby prep race scheduled for last weekend, was canceled.
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This left west coast contenders with only 1 prep race this month, the Sunland Derby on March 24, worth 50 points. However, many of them wanted to prep in the Felipe last week and need to determine if they will require another prep next month to get into the Kentucky Derby, which will certainly require at least 20 points as usual. (Note: Arkansas Derby may end up with 2 fields as well.)
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Thus, an airplane full of southern California based horses arrived in Hot Springs this week for a southeast invasion. The double Rebel also marks the 3yo debut of two of the top ranked 3yo’s this year, Bob Baffert’s Game Winner and Improbable. For the sake of brevity, we will refer to the two races as Rebel 1 and Rebel 2.
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Rebel 1 will be conducted in race 8, right after the Azeri in which Elate and Midnight Bisou will run 1-2 in whichever order, leaving the rest of the short field in a race for 3rd. Shamrock Rose and Tapa Tapa Tapa will be the 2 fillies competing for that 3rd place spot.
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In Rebel 1, Baffert’s Improbable will make his 3yo debut. Last seen roasting the field in the Cashcall Futurity G1 at LosAl, he has the highest pair of PF’s and ranks #1 across the board in the Grid. However, he is an early runner in a field that is chock full of speed, including frontrunners Galilean, the 2nd ML choice, and Classy John.
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Rebel 1 thus will be a true test for Improbable to see how he can handle such a speedy race, starting with 3-5 morning line odds. Steve Asmussen owns this track and has a pair in it, but there are no late runners at all in the field of 9. Each horse has Quirin points of 5 or more, so expect a lot of jockey restraint.
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Rebel 2 features the 3yo debut of Baffert’s undefeated 2yo champion Game Winner at 4-5, who was last seen winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November. The field includes fellow Santa Anita survivor and 2nd ML choice Omaha Beach, who has run in 5 MSW’s, finally winning one last out.
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Our Braintrust is the 3rd ML choice after finishing 3rd in the Withers. The 10 horse field also has a good amount of speed in it but looks significantly less competitive than Rebel 1. However, each race has 6 horses with Grid PF’s in the 90s and 3 in the high 90s, so on paper they are somewhat even.
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Because of the speed in Rebel 2 we have to take a look at sole later runner Gunmetal Gray at 10-1, last seen trying to catch Baffert’s speedy Mucho Gusto (pointed to Sunland Derby) from behind in the Robert and Beverly Lewis G2 and getting 2nd. Mid pack stalked Laughing Fox is also eligible to improve as one of Asmussen’s 4 in this race.
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There are also several MSW’s for 3yo’s on the card, in which the connections can decide whether their 3yos can be promoted to the Triple Crown Trail based on their relative performances to the two Rebel races.
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Check out the Oaklawn Sat Grid, including both Rebels, the Azeri, and all other races, free with no string attached! Enjoy!

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Tampa Bay’s Saturday March 9 card included several stakes races featuring the Tampa Bay Derby G2. Let’s see how that went down, and what The Grid had to say about the matter.
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R11 5:25ET 8.5f D TamDby-G2 3 YO:
The surprise winner was Tacitus at 9-1, 3rd in EP and 4th in Speed, in a race without much speed in it.
In 2nd was Outshine at 6-1, 3rd in LP and Stamina. In 3rd
3rd place was 7-5 favorite Win Win Win, top in Power, LP, and Stamina.
4th place was a surprise to the public at 19-1, but no surprise to us, Zenden who was 1st in EP and Speed, and 2nd in Power rating.
5th place went to Sir Winston at 46-1, who was 4th in LP and Stamina, and had the 2nd best PF at this distance range.
The 2nd and 3rd choices finished off the board, leading to some great payouts despite the favorite finishing ITM.
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$1 Exacta: $64.60
$0.50 Trifecta: $115.50
$0.10 Superfecta: $236.62
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So even though we missed the $1 super, we did have the dime, $2 exacta, and 50 cent tri, and ended up with over $500 in that one race, making up for favoritism dominating the previous 3. You could have had it too by using The Grid.
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Don’t believe? Here is the Tampa Bay Derby day Grid, edited only to remove scratched horses and insert final running order and odds for ITM horses. We issued this Grid free last Saturday, so if you didn’t use it, that’s on you.
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Tampa Bay Downs March 9 Grid with results and final odds for ITM

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Friday, March 8, 2019. Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 3 begins today, along with Kentucky Oaks Future and the Oaks/Derby Double Future where you can pick the winner of both.
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To help you out, we give you the Kentucky Oaks and Derby Futures Grid here for free, giving you 2 free Grids this week including the Tampa Bay Downs Derby Day Saturday Grid. When you speak of us, speak well.
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In addition, Kentucky Derby.com was generous enough to provide the full form PP’s for the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby Futures as well, so we’ve reposted them here so you can compare and contrast. For example, their PP’s take up 14 pages as most do. The Grid takes 1 page, and is color coded. But anyway.

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Moving on, since our Grid is flexible, we took the liberty of underlining the horses that are racing this weekend, of which there are 5. There would have been about twice that, but the California contingent has been put on hold due to Santa Anita canceling all racing this week, including the San Felipe G2.
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In the Gotham G3 tomorrow at Aqueduct, the speedy Instagrand heads the field at even money in his 3yo debut and his first race since winning the Best Pal G2 in August. He’s 10-1 in the Futures. Mind Control is the 2nd ML choice after his Jerome win, and is 30-1 in Futures. If you think he will win the Gotham, bet him today to lock in your odds.

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They will be challenged by 6 others including Withers G3 runner up Not That Brady, who fought back in the stretch to lose by a head after winning his 2 prior bouts. Baffert shipped Much Better over from Santa Anita where there is no current racing.
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The Tampa Bay Derby field is a bit stronger, with 3 appearing as entries in the Futures Pool. Win Win Win is favored in this race after his staggering PF’s in the 7f Pasco Stakes here at Tampa in January (102 Grid, 101 Bris, 99 Beyer). He’s at 50-1 in the Pool so bet him today if you think he’ll win.
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Well Defined should probably be the favorite, since he has actually won at this distance twice, including last out the Sam Davis G3 also at Tampa. He is also at 50-1 ML in the Futures. Dream Maker also appears in the pool but the reason is unclear. The Tampa Derby has been covered in much more detail here.
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The Jeff Ruby Steaks G3 is also on Saturday, but none of the contenders appear in the Futures entries, and their PF’s look well below par for those that do appear in the Pool.
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As previously covered, Santa Anita racing has been canceled indefinitely, and with it the San Felipe Stakes, in which we expected to see Baffert’s top 2 steeds.
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Game Winner and Improbable are also the top 2 individual ML choices in the Pool, but neither has raced yet this year. They will likely scramble now to the Southeast in order to get in at least 2 preps and the necessary points.
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Game Winner doesn’t even need the points but he will not go into the Big One without at least 1 prep this year, probably 2. People in the know say they will go to the Rebel next weekend, which makes sense because it’s a favorite prep for Baffert, but they could split up into the Louisiana Derby also.
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That leaves Baffert’s 3rd, also in the top 5 of our rankings, which will be revised next week. Mucho Gusto could be the one to stay back in Socal, aiming for the Sunland Derby in which he could get enough Derby points with a top 3 finish.
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The rest of them not mentioned have all been racing this year, so you can see where they stand using the Kentucky Derby Central, providing point standings, prep race results, and rankings.

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Friday, March 8, 2019. Tampa Bay Downs. There are 3 big Kentucky Derby Prep races on Saturday, enough to get excited about for even the casual Kentucky Derby fan. The Gotham G3 at Aqueduct, Tampa Bay G2, and Jeff Ruby Steaks G3 at Turfway will keep us occupied.
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There was a 4th scheduled, the San Felipe G2, which may have been the biggest race, in which we expected to see Game Winner in his 3yo debut against top competition, but racing at Santa Anita has been canceled indefinitely (use Santa Anita link above for all news for that track.)
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So this leaves the Socal 3yo horse connections scrambling, with only 1 major prep, the Santa Anita Derby G1 in April. They could scatter to the southeast next weekend, but the San Felipe may be rescheduled if they can straighten out the track in time. Regardless, I would expect a crowded Sunland Derby field on March 24.
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For now, the track of the week is Tampa Bay Downs, featuring the Tampa Bay Derby G2, Florida Oaks G3, and Hillsborough Stakes G3. The TBay Derby consists of 11 solid east coast and southeast based colts and geldings, racing for 50 Kentucky Derby points.
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The TBD morning line favorite is Win Win Win, who already won won won 3 of his 4 races, last being a track record in the Pasco Stakes at 7f here at Tampa, by 7 lengths. His only loss was at Laurel to Alwaysmining, who has now won 3 consecutive stakes races including the Miracle Wood at Laurel.
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Well Defined is the 2nd ML choice after his impressive Sam Davis G3 win here a month ago, marking a return to his 2yo form where he won the FSN Reality $400k at Gulfstream. But as usual, there are other developing 3yo’s looking to crash the party, as they did in major fashion last week at Gulfstream.
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The fastest horse in the field aside from Well Defined would be Zenden, a stakes winner at 6f who was unable to keep up with Call Paul in the Swale G3 at 7f, finishing 2nd there. Other than that, the field is almost devoid of early speed, so it could be those 2 down the stretch dueling it out.
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Dream Maker is the 3rd ML choice at 4-1 but his credentials don’t appear to eclipse any of the horses in the field, regardless of a great trainer Mark Casse. Outshine looks to be the 4th choice, currently at 8-1, having won his OC75 last out for Todd Pletcher.
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Sir Winston at 12-1 will likely be the 5th betting choice after his 4th place in the Withers G3, marking his 5th straight race improving in performance figures for Mark Casse.
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Now for the juicy stuff, long shot specials who can wreak havoc on this race due to the inherent unpredictable unprovenness of its field. Admire at 12-1 ML finished a step behind Sir Winston last out, but it was only his 3rd career race and he’s been rapidly improving in each under the great Dale Romans.
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The Right Path is at 15-1 ML in his 3rd career start, losing to Outshine by a couple last out, but looks ready to hang with the big boys, with a great pedigree and Joe Bravo up.
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Great long shot specials in the Tampa Bay Derby:
Zenden 8-1
Admire 12-1
Sir Winston 12-1
The Right Path 15-1
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Check out the Tampa Bay Saturday Grid right here FREE
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Oh by the way, Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 3 is also this week!

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Kentucky Derby Central
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Gulfstream Saturday March 2. There was massive stakes racing at Gulfstream Park last weekend, with 9 graded stakes races and plenty of exciting finishes. Let’s recap the stakes action quickly, along with what The Grid, provided free for that day, had to say.
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R5 1:30ET 8f T CanTuf-G3 4 UP: Krampus won at 5-1, Grid top 3 in LP, stamina, and power in a short competitive field race.
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R6 2:00ET 6f D GpSprint-G3 4 UP: Recruiting Ready won at 1-2, tops in all Grid categories except LP and no surprise. Top LP Sweetontheladies finished 3rd at 17-1.
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R7 2:30ET 9.5f T VeryOne-G3 4 UP FM: Another favorite, Holy Helena won at 2-1. In a race with not much speed, the two top EP horses finished 2nd and 3rd at 24-1 and 4-1.
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R8 3:00ET 8.5f T Hcmbride-G3 3 YO F: Again, favored Cambier Park won at 4-5, tops in all Grid categories except for being 2nd in LP and Stamina.
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R9 3:30ET 8.5f T Md Sp Wt 3 YO F: Not a stakes race, this MSW was won at 8-1 by Seranitsa, who was 1 in EP and 2 in Speed. In 2nd was a 1st time starter from Pletcher by Pioneerof the Nile at 5-1. 3rd another 1st time starter from Juan Avila by Australia at 81-1. 4th was Lady Rosalie at 10-1, top Power and 2nd in LP and Stamina. If you were both clever and used the Grid, you could have got a dime super payoff of $1458. I wasn’t that clever but did have the exacta.
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R10 4:00ET 8.5f D Md Sp Wt 3 YO: Identifier at 5-1 won with top Power, 2nd in EP and Speed, 3rd Stamina. 2nd was Ranger Up at 7-1 with top EP and Speed, 2nd in Power and Stamina. 3rd was favored High Amplitude, 8-5 and top in LP and Stamina. Easy exotic payouts with the Grid. $1 super paid $337.
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R11 4:30ET 8f T HoneyFox-G3 4 UP FM: Even money fav Precieuse won with top LP Power Stamina. 2nd was 2nd Power horse Valedictorian at 6-1. In 3rd was the 3rd Power horse Bellavais at 3-1. In 5th was Hogan’s Holiday at 32-1, 2nd in LP and 3rd in Stam.
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Note in the above MSW’s for 3yos, things got really interesting. Again they get interesting here with the 3yo races, with good odds and payouts.
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R12 5:01ET 8f D DvonaDale-G2 3 YO F: In a short but very competitive field with these rapidly developing fillies, there was a clear cut favorite who was proven at this distance, winning 2 G1’s last year at this distance. However, there was a significant amount of speed for a 7 horse field.
The winner Jeltrin was 51-1 in her 1st 2-turn attempt, and ranked 3rd in EP and Speed. In 2nd was Cookie Dough at 13-1, 2nd in EP, Speed, and Power. In 3rd was Champagne Anyone at 9-1, 1st in LP and 2nd in Stamina. And in 4th was your favorite Jaywalk, tops in all categories except LP, at 1-5.
So if you boxed some top Grid plays including the long shots, instead of keying Jaywalk at the top, you could have had a dime super of $404, or $1 super of $4040, or a 50 cent tri of $1007. Maybe you just had enough for a $1 exacta box paying $512.
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R13 5:32ET 8.5f D FntnOYth-G2 3 YO: Excitement continued as 10-1 Code of Honor regained his 2yo form. He was 3rd in Power and top 5 in all other Grid categories of the 11 horse field and up from 6-1 ML. In 2nd was our 2nd pick, Bourbon War at 4-1 down from 10-1 ML, 1st in LP and Stamina, 5th in Power. In 3rd was Vekoma at 3-1, 1st in Power and top 3 in all other categories. In 4th was Hidden Scroll at 6-5, tops in most categories. Rounding out the top 5 was Global Campaign, 3rd in EP and Speed.
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R14 6:06ET 11f T MDiarmd-G2 4 UP: Favorite and top Power Zulu Alpha won at even money. Not surprising, but in 2nd was your Grid’s top LP and Stamina Melmich at 13-1. In a race almost devoid of speed, the rest of the top 5 consisted of the top EP and Speed horses.
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So you still don’t think you can win using the Grid? Maybe a baseball bat would help matters. Or perhaps you think we’re making it up. Nope, you can find the exact Grid we handed out free last week online.
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Here is that same Grid, modified only to remove scratched horses and insert finishing order.
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We’re following this up with a look at this week’s Kentucky Derby Futures Pool, and the 3 Derby Prep Races this weekend. So get ready for a barrage of info and try to keep up!
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Kentucky Derby Central has all you rankings, articles, standings, championship race results and analysis.

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Wed.Mar.6.2019, Arcadia, CA. Santa Anita officials have decided to cancel racing indefinitely due to 21 horse deaths at the track since December, an unusually high number for any track and a major concern for everyone involved in horse racing.
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The announcement comes just a week after Santa Anita deemed the track OK and continued racing last weekend, but the death toll continued. They are now closing the track to examine the surface more thoroughly in order to determine the problem.
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Major stakes racing was to held on Saturday March 9, including the San Felipe G2, San Carlos G2, Frank Kilroe Mile G1, and the historic Santa Anita Handicap (Big Cap) G1. Racing would normally resume on Thursday March 14 but there is no definite date set at this point.
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Santa Anita received almost 12 inches of rain in February, and had unusually cold weather as well. Experts say that the weather is not a factor but Stronach COO Tim Ritvo admits the track was not built for those type of weather conditions, and other horsemen believe the surface needs examination.
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“Something is drastically wrong. I’ve been around a long time and have never seen this,” 82-year-old trainer Art Sherman, the oldest to win the Kentucky Derby in 2014, told the Los Angeles Times. “There’s something wrong in the foundation, or something is not right. The only way to find out is shut it down.”
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In addition to its usual major stakes racing including the Santa Anita Derby G1 in April, Santa Anita is currently scheduled to hold the Breeders’ Cup for a record 10th time and 5th time this decade. The priority right now is ensuring the track is safe for horses to train and race on.
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Kentucky Derby Central
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Saturday, Mar.2, 2019. Gulfstream Park has one of its biggest race days of the year, with counting 9 graded stakes races sandwiching two MSW3’s and following the 1st 3 races. Stakes racing ends with the Davona Dale G2 for 3yo fillies, Fountain of Youth G2 for 3yos, and the Mac Diamarda G2 on turf.
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The highlight for 3yo followers will be the Fountain of Youth and Davona Dale, starring Jaywalk who has rattled off 4 straight wins including the last two G1’s, the last of which was the BC Juvenile Fillies in November, and will be at heavy odds. It looks like the other fillies are all running for 2nd in the Davona Dale.
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The FOY G2 however looks much more competitive. A field of 11 mostly non-established colts will duke it out for 50 points and an automatic Kentucky Derby slot. The 20 for second place will come in handy as well. Most of these have been up and down or lightly raced and unproven against stakes competition.
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The main exception is Signalman, in his first race of the year after placing 2nd in the Keeneland Breeders Futurity G2, 3rd in the BC Juvenile G1, then 1st in the Kentucky Jockey Club G2 last November. Signalman is currently ranked in the Derby Dozen.
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Vekoma is undefeated in his 2 races including the Nashua G3 at Aqueduct last year, and has top Grid power rating.
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Hidden Scroll is the favorite after winning his only race, a maiden mile on a sloppy track here at Gulfstream in January, giving him top EP in the field. Global Campaign is undefeated in his 2 races as well, a maiden and optional claiming.
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Everfast rebounded from a disastrous stakes campaign last year for 2nd place in the Holy Bull G2 here a month ago. Epic Dreamer is the only other from that race in the field, having faded to 4th in the Bull. The rest as mentioned are highly unproven in graded stakes except for Bourbon War and Code of Honor.
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Bourbon War has won 2 of 3 races but the only stakes was a disappointing 4th in the Remsen G2, his only stakes race, and has top LP in the Grid. Code of Honor looked full of possibilities after a 2nd in the Champagne G1, but fell flat as the favorite in his only race this year, the Mucho Macho Man. He is top 5 in all Grid categories in this race.
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Top FOY picks:
Signalman
Vekoma
Bourbon War
Hidden Scroll
Code of Honor
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Check out the Gulfstream Grid free to make your winning picks for all the races.
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The Mac Diamarda G2 could be interesting but there’s not much speed at all in it, making it look chalky with English Channel and Zulu Alpha, and Village King getting their way near the pace. But top LP belongs to Melmich at 20-1 ML and other closers have good odds.
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Good Luck!
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Sunday, Feb.24, Sunland Park. New Mexico’s finest track brings us the race of the week, the Mine That Bird Derby, named after the horse who didn’t win anything here but placed 4th, then went on to win the Kentucky Derby at about 50-1.
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The MTB Derby could be a stepping stone for the Sunland Derby and Triple Crown action. It’s not a points race but is important to gauge against other 3yo competition. Sunland will also run the Island Fashion, an equivalent race for 3yo fillies on the Kentucky Oaks trail.
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Notable in the field are Todd Fincher’s Hustle Up in his 10th race already after rattling off 2 straight stakes wins in New Mexico, and Steve Asmussen’s Wicked Indeed in his 4th start after a 4th in the Lecomte G3.
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Doug O’neill looks to crash the party with 2nd time starter One Flew South, who broke his maiden easily upon first asking at Turfway Park for Wesley Ward. The race thus looks chalky but they’re young 3yo’s so anything can happen.
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Get the Sunday Sunland Grid here to make your picks!

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Feb.22 2019: It’s time once again for a renewal of the Kentucky Double Derby Dozen, taking into account last weekends stakes actions in the Risen Star G2, Southwest G3, El Camino Real Derby, and Miracle Wood, the last of which is not a points race but there is some significance. Here our list included the top 25 Kentucky Derby contenders and a brief summary of the top 12.
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Use Kentucky Derby Central for Derby Points standings and Championship Series Prep race results.
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There has been some more shuffling, including some near the top this time, as some of the prior horses finally raced this year and weren’t very impressive. Maybe they were just rusty, but things are changing. Some horses are racing and doing it very well this year, and you have to be part of that group to stay in the top. The top 3 haven’t raced yet this year but are expected to within a couple weeks. Keep in mind that the next race possible is mostly an educated guess.
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1. Game Winner has to prove he can be beaten by anyone before he gets demoted. Probably a unanimous number one by anyone with horse sense, he won 3 Grade 1 races as a 2yo including the BCJ. He has yet to race this year but is looking like another Baffert juggernaut. You wouldn’t have been wrong to bet him in the futures pool 2 because his final odds of 5-1 may actually go down from there. Winning the BCJ at Churchill is a big indicator for a great Derby performance.
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2. Signalman has not done much wrong, losing only to Knicks Go in the Breeders Futurity and BCJ, and to Game Winner of course. He rebounded for a big win 3 weeks later in the KYJC on the sloppy sealed track, so he has no issues with two extreme variations of Churchill so far. He is Kenny McPeek’s best Derby hope in a while and will probably appear in the Fountain of Youth G2 in early March, at which time we’ll see if he needs to be demoted.
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3. Improbable is very probable to run in the Kentucky Derby, and as a Baffert’s #2 horse, don’t misunderestimate him. He blew away the field in the Los Alamitos Cashcall Futurity, beating his other stablemate Mucho Gusto by 5 lengths and remaining undefeated. Last year Baffert’s #2 became a Triple Crown winner. He will have to start prepping this year and is expected to in early March.
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4. Mucho Gusto is currently Baffert’s 3rd ranked 3yo, giving him 3 viable Derby contenders. He was 2nd place 5 lengths back to undefeated Improbable in the Los Al futurity, but still 3 lengths ahead of the rest. Last out he proved that he’s also a stakes champion, winning the Robert B Lewis on Feb.2 in convincing fashion over proven graded stakes winner Gunmetal Gray.
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5. Gunmetal Gray may have finished well behind the top 3 on this list in the BCJ, but he was probably way too far back to ever win it. Running from last place at the start, he was still 2nd to last after ¾ mile and made a big run for 5th. He then returned home to SoCal and had no problem going from last to first to win the Sham G3 to open the year on Jan.5. Last out he tried to catch Mucho Gusto in the Robert Lewis G3 to no avail.
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6. War of Will followed up his Lecomte G3 win in January with an equally impressive victory in the Risen Star G2 on Feb.16, proving that he’s the real deal. This time he beat a slew of top southeast contenders in addition to some of last year’s top 2yo’s, giving Mark Casse a legit Kentucky Derby contender. He has been nicknamed WOW on the Triple Crown Trail.
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7. Country House came out of the clouds to pick up 2nd in the Risen Star, passing 8 horses in the 2nd half of the race with a strong finish. He currently has The Grid’s top LP among 3yo Derby contenders and his sire Lookin at Lucky was a solid Triple Crown Contender. We will probably see him next trying to catch War of Will in the Louisiana Derby on March 23.
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8. Harvey Wallbanger burst onto the Kentucky Derby scene with a last to first win in the Holy Bull G2 on Feb.2 at 29-1 edging out Everfast and Remsen winner Maximus Mischief. Prior to that, he took 4 turns to break his maiden, but finally got a legit pace to run at in his first stakes contest, and made the most of it with his good closing pace at 29-1. Kenny McPeek has at least 2 legit Derby contenders this year.
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9. Everfast also came crashing back onto the Triple Crown Trail with a 2nd place finish in the Holy Bull G2 at 128-1. After looking like he was fading in 4th in the stretch, he stayed on to edge out Remsen winner Maximus Mischief by a neck. Last year he stumbled around on the TC Trail, with 2 subpar preps and 1 abysmal performance in the KYJC G2, but Romans wouldn’t have had him in 3 graded races if he didn’t see the potential, which was on display Feb.2.
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10. Super Steed made his name known by passing all 8 competitors in a devastating 62-1 Southwest G3 win on Feb.18 at Oaklawn. After finishing 4th in the Sugar Bowl and 7th in the Smarty Jones, he was an afterthought for 61 of 62 bettors, but took a big step up and showed great closing ability. Larry Jones will probably point his sole Derby contender to the Rebel G2 on March 16.
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11. Instagrand has zero points and hasn’t run against the serious competition yet, but did win the Best Pal G2 last out at Del Mar, by 10 lengths. That was in August, and we hear reports that he’s having some nice workouts recently, but we need to see him race again to move him up any farther than this. If Hollendorfer thinks he’s a Derby Contender then he should be running in the San Felipe March 9. If not, he’ll be off this list.
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12. Mind Control won the Hopeful G1 at Saratoga then shipped to Kentucky for the BCJ, where he finished almost 20 lengths back in 7th. He did bobble at the start so there could be an excuse. But he returned to New York and won the Jerome against some typical nobodies that race there in the winter. It’s hard to tell where to put him right now, but we expect to see him face off against Max Mischief and some decent competition in the Gotham.
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The rest of the top 25 you can see in the big picture, but what you’ll find interesting is that while Baffert is playing with a stacked deck as usual, Todd Pletcher has zero horses in the top 25. In fact, Todd doesn’t even have a horse in the top 30 in the points standings. That will of course change but for now he has no perceivable contenders. And watch out for Kenny McPeek this year.
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Next Rankings should be out by March 8 in anticipation of the Derby Futures Pool 3.
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Kentucky Derby Grid Options Here