Weekend Winners Club

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Friday, May 6, 2016
Churchill Downs
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First let’s look at how the pace might affect this year’s Kentucky Derby. I heard Randy Moss and other commentators say that there are a whole lot of closers and not much speed up front in this year’s field.
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This is absolutely true. There are only two E8 frontrunners, and an EP7 and EP6. It’s the least amount of early speed we’ve seen in the Kentucky Derby for a long time. By comparison, look at the pace in fields for the last 10 Derby editions.
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You can see that most Ky Derbies had more early speed in them, but that sometimes it didn’t make a difference. For example, last year had 4 8’s and 3 7’s. Still the top 3 horses were 7 and 8 frontrunners who set the pace throughout.
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In 2014, California Chrome had no problem holding on behind a pace set by 3 E8’s. In 2013, the early runners all folded. But in 2012, E8 Bodemeister set a blistering pace, holding on for 2nd as an EP7 beat him.
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So you can’t always tell exactly how the pace will play out, and looks can be deceiving. However, this year’s scenario certainly does bode well for Nyquist and Mohaymen, and does seem to give Outwork and Danzing Candy a legitimate shot.
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Danzing Candy needs to be on the lead and has proven that so far. Not only that, but he continues to set more intense fractions every time out. Put it this way, his first half mile time was progressively smaller in four straight races as he went from 7 to 8 to 8.5 to 9f.
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Normally horses will go slower early as the distance increases, especially when they have less competition on the pace. In the Santa Anita Derby, he was all alone yet insisted on going 45.2 at the half in the slop, consummating himself and finishing 13 lengths back. If he sets suicide fractions again, he won’t make purse money at 10f.
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Outwork on the other hand, has been more sensible in his 4 lifetime races, finding himself in 2nd twice when the going got swift. In the Wood, he took to a head behind the frontrunner before overtaking the tiring leader and holding on for the win. However, if he tries to duel with Danzing Candy, they’ll both fall apart up front.
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This pace scenario sets up best for Nyquist and Mohaymen, who will come out together in posts 13 and 14, and likely run together for most of the race, rating behind those front two. Nyquist tends to run earlier and is usually within a length but also found himself on the lead in the Florida Derby and took it from there since nobody else had speed.
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Mohaymen is usually within a length or two and makes his move late. He will most likely be following the champion’s every move and try to overtake him in the stretch. But he probably won’t be able to do the latter.
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Destin is also versatile and would prefer to be near the lead. Gun Runner is another one that will be pressing the pace. Majesto and Mor Spirit will also be pressing the pace, putting them in good position to make their late moves.
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I know, I’m supposed to say Oscar Nominated will be within a few lengths of the pace as well, but that depends on if he wants to run on dirt at all. He’s a turf horse that shouldn’t be running on dirt and probably can’t sprint on it.
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Exaggerator is sometimes near the pace when it’s slow, but can find himself 16 lengths back if Danzing Candy is setting suicide fractions. He likes to run his own moderate pace and take the lead sometime in the last ¼ of the race.
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Outside of those, it’s going to be hard for any of the other late runners to make a winning bid, but some of them could get up for a piece of the purse. Of course it’s also possible that a late runner will be sent earlier because everyone knows there isn’t much speed.
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In most of the major preps, suicide fractions were set by horses that aren’t in the Kentucky Derby field, except Danzing Candy. In the Wood, the pace was solid but reasonable, allowing Outwork to hold on. Nyquist set it in the Fla Derby since there weren’t any rabbits.
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Therefore, all the closers that finished 1 or 2 in the major preps, probably won’t get the torrid pace they want this weekend. They may get a Danzing and Outwork duel but nobody wants to go with them.
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Back to Derby Analysis and Predictions page
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