Weekend Winners Club

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Saturday, May 7, 2016
Churchill Downs
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On TV you sometimes see analysts predicting how a big race will play out at each point in the race, knowing they have 100% chance of getting most of it wrong.
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Especially in a race with 20 horses, it’s 100% impossible to predict where each horse will be at each call. It’s hard enough to predict the final results without boxing and wheeling.
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Regardless, I could get 90% of them correct at each call, and get one of the top 4 wrong, and somebody will email me and criticize me for it. Instead of getting a medal or a huge monetary prize as such a prediction would deserve.
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First let’s reference the condensed Derby Grid real quick, so you can see where I’m getting most of the information for front runners, early runners, pressers, and closers.
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Next let’s go ahead with the “animation” (non-animated graphics.) The first call is easy to predict, except for maybe the time of the quarter. Danzing Candy likes to set a fast pace, and Outwork needs to vie for the lead. The others will follow at their usual pace.
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Things don’t change much at the half mile other than some shuffling for position behind the leaders. Nyquist will be tracking the leaders close if they’re not going fast.
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Things change a little more at 3/4 mile as Gun Runner finds himself gunning for the lead. Some from the mid-pack and rear begin making their move.
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At a mile things start changing significantly, and horses start entering the stretch. Front runners are starting to fade, Nyquist and Gun Runner move to the lead. Destin and Majesto are trying to make the lead already as others move up.
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This is the toughest call of all. Exaggerator is the top ranked horse in the Grid, but may not get there in time, depending on the pace. If Danzing Candy sets suicide fractions and brings the next 3 early runners with him, they’re all doomed.
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It wouldn’t surprise me if either of these top 3 win, but I don’t see a deep closer doing it unless all the early runners collapse, including favored Nyquist.
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These predictions are based on the front runners setting a fast but not torrid pace, one that Nyquist and Gun Runner will overcome, but not one that the rest of them can.
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If it gets fast enough, and most of the pack moves with them, Exaggerator will likely be the winner, followed by great closers like Trojan Nation, Creator and Mo Tom. Gun Runner will be there either way.
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Back to Kentucky Derby Analysis and Predicitons Page
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Download Final 2016 Kentucky Derby Grid Here with full field, odds, posts, and over 80 different factors including pedigree, performance, and historical criteria!
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