Weekend Winners Club

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Saturday, May 14
Pimlico Race Course
Baltimore, MD
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Click here for this year’s Preakness info
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The field for the Preakness is shifting about this week in the aftermath of the Kentucky Derby. So far all we seem to know is that the fantastic Derby duo of Nyquist and Exaggerator will be in the race. Nyquist is still undefeated, and Exaggerator finished 2nd to him twice this year but can’t seem to get the edge running from behind.
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Other probables include Awesome Speed, Collected, Fellowship, Lani, Laoban, Stradivari, and Uncle Lino. Considering the race are also those listed below.
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Probables:	Odds	Last	Race
Nyquist	3-5	1st	Kentucky Derby
Exaggerator	9-2	2nd	Kentucky Derby
Lani	33-1	9th	Kentucky Derby
Cherry Wine	22-1	3rd	Blue Grass Stakes
Collected	15-1	1st	Lexington Stakes
Awesome Speed	25-1	1st	Federico Tesio (by DQ)
Stradivari	14-1	1st	Allowance race 62k
Uncle Lino	25-1	1st	California Chrome
Laoban	35-1	4th	Blue Grass Stakes
Fellowship	30-1	4th	Pat Day Mile
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Considering
Brody’s Cause	18-1	7th	Kentucky Derby
Dazzling Gem	22-1	4th	Arkansas Derby
Gun Runner	10-1	3rd	Kentucky Derby
Creator	18-1	13th	Kentucky Derby
Suddenbreakingnews	12-1	5th	Kentucky Derby

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We covered in a previous article how to go about handicapping the Preakness, simply based on history. We know from historical analysis that the top 2 Derby horses will probably run 1-2 or 1-3 or even 1-4.
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We also know that if the other 3 that finished top 7 in the Derby race here, one or more of them is likely to finish in the top 4. We’re not going to argue about the merits of the top 7 Derby finishers here. Leave that for haters and other deniers of history.

However, we also know from this analysis that it’s rare for ALL of the top 4 Preakness slots to be occupied by Derby contestants. It’s happened only twice in the last 20 years. On average, 2 or 3 in the superfecta are from the Derby field, and 85% of the time the winner is from the Derby top 6.
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So we still have to find 1 or 2 horses for the super, maybe 3 if you’re gunning for the super high 5. For that we need some real handicapping tools. Let’s look at what the Grid version of the past performances says about the contestants.
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Download Preakness Grid and Early Odds here if you have trouble seeing the picture.
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We also know from just the 20 past years of Preakness that the winner is usually a front runner or early runner, even when the winner is not the Derby champion. See Oxbow, Shackleford, Rachel Alexandra, Bernardini, Red Bullet for guest champions that ran on the front end. In addition, the Derby outsiders that finish top 4 at Preakness are usually early runners.
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What stands out immediately when you look at the Preakness Grid? To me, it’s Uncle Lino. It was easy to overlook his previous 2 races wherein he finished well beaten in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby, and those efforts cost him a Kentucky Derby slot.
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But Uncle Lino rebounded nicely in his last effort, winning the California Chrome stakes in his usual front running style that had previously been no match for Danzing Candy in SoCal. It’s hard to tell if he really jumped up that much in class, or if the variant was inflated. After all, that gives him the only triple digit Grid PF in the field, but all the numbers look impressive.
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He also earns the top EP rating in the field, and Danzing Candy is not in this race. He’s been in 7 races, 3 graded stakes, and only lost to one horse in this field: Exaggerator. Also notice his final ¼ mile time of 23.9 seconds, which is very rapid for a front runner going gate to wire in an 8.5f race. Uncle Lino is also 2nd in power rating, and has a good stamina rating thanks mostly to that last race.
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Can he stay ahead of Exaggerator this time or beat Nyquist to the wire? Doubtful, but remember we’re looking for a couple horses to fill our superfecta. Note also that there’s no way he’ll be 25-1 at post time. My guess is about half of that, which is normal for the top Preakness invader.
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The other horse that stands out is Stradivari, another frontrunner coming off an impressive 14 length allowance victory in his 3rd race, following an 11 length maiden win. He started off the 9f allowance at Keeneland in 2nd, but after he took the lead at ¾ mile, it was clear the others couldn’t run with him.
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So what? A $62k n1x allowance? It was his 2nd straight runaway win and 2nd straight improving of his pf by about 10 points, in his 3rd career start. Fortunately there were a couple other races at Keeneland that day to compare the allowance race to. I just ended that sentence with a preposition. Here’s how his race compared to:
MSW 60k 9f: 2 seconds faster ¾ mile, 2 seconds faster final time
Beaumont G3, f3yo ~7f: Maybe not an accurate comparison, but the final time for the “about 7f” race of 1.26.27 was almost 3 seconds slower than the calculated 7f time of Stradivari of 1.23.71. If we extrapolate the sprint leaders’ 6f fractions to 7f, the times would be about the same. But Stradivari had 2f to go at that point.
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Stradivari also ran a nice final ¼ mile in 24.9 seconds, which again for a frontrunner going further than a mile, is very impressive. No wonder he ran away from the field. Remember, Nyquist was the most impressive early running victor coming into the Derby, and finished his 9f G1 prep in 25.23.
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In fact, none in the Derby field had run sub-25 second final ¼ miles in their 9f Derby preps, which brings us to another observation. Look at some of those final ¼ mile times for the Derby closers. Suddenbreakingnews almost hit 24 flat for his 5th place finish. Exaggerator, Brody’s Cause, and Lani were also very speedy down the stretch.
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Undoubtedly, 1 or 2 of those, if they run, will finish in the top 4, most likely Exaggerator, but we already covered the top Derby horse aspect. And besides, this isn’t really a closers type of race, that’s why I gave you the two outsiders with speed that have the best chance to shake things up.
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There will surely be some wise guys talking up Awesome Speed. However, his speed doesn’t seem that awesome in G1 company. It’s true he did come home in 25.2 in the 9f Tesio, but it was overall an extremely slow race with a ½ mile of 50.4 and final time of 1.53.2, almost 5 seconds slower than Stradivari’s last out.
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Those were different tracks so it is a bit of apples and oranges, but we can also compare it to the same track and day. Given it was the longest race of the day, but he ran the slowest ½ and ¾ times of any of the races that day. His mile time did just beat out the filly 8.5f stakes mile by maybe 2 or 3 tenths of a second.
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The stalker that closed on that horridly slow pace to beat him by a nose, only to lose by DQ, was Governor Malibu. This turns out to be a quality horse that again closed, this time from much farther back on a much faster pace, to within 1 length of victory in the Peter Pan G2. The race was won by 1-2 favorite Unified. Both of these will likely be in Belmont Stakes and getting plenty of attention.
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The only other speed I would worry about is Collected, coming off two solid races. Last out he drew off then geared down in the 8.5f Lexington. Before that was his best career race, a 2 length win in the Sunland Festival of Racing at 9f, a substitute for the Sunland Derby, which is another article unto itself.
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The race before that, he lost a Southwest G3 that seemed to be favoring late runners, since Suddenbreakingnews and Whitmore ran 1-2. And before that, a Sham G3 win. In all he has 4 wins, a 2nd, and a 4th. Baffert normally picks his spots well, and if he runs like he did at Sunland, he’ll compete here.
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Any others besides those that may run from the top 7 Derby finishers, and those I mentioned, can be thrown out altogether. It’s impossible to determine right now without the field being finalized, but based on the probable starters, we have a good idea who will fill those top 5 spots.
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Right now if I had to bet based on probables, I’d probably do it something like this.
Key at 1 and 2:
Nyquist
Exaggerator
Wheel at 3 and 4 (and 5):
Stradivari
Uncle Lino
Collected
Suddenbreakingnews
Gun runner (if entered)
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To get the Grid PP’s for the entire race card at Pimlico, that can be done here.

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