Weekend Winners Club

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Friday, November 2, Churchill Downs.
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Friday’s focus race is the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile G1 Stakes (BCJ). In an excellent day of racing that includes 7 stakes races, 5 or which are graded at the Churchill Downs on Friday, and 7 total races for juveniles. Many eyes will be on race 9, as people begin looking for next year’s Kentucky Derby champion. It’s never too early!
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Although this year’s Kentucky Derby (KYD) champion did not run in the BCJ, he was an anomaly as you probably know. First horse in over 130 years to win the big one after not racing at all as a 2yo, only 3 career races. Justified breaking a lot of the “rules.” But the horse finishing behind him in 2nd was the BCJ champ.
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In fact, most Kentucky Derby winners have ran in the BCJ since its inception, and several also won that race as a 2yo, including such champs as Nyquist and Street Sense. The Kentucky Derby superfecta is typically dominated by horses that ran well in the BCJ.
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Needless to say, the BCJ an important race which normally determines at least who the 2yo champion is and the early KYD favorite. So without further ado let’s take a look at the BCJ Grid. I stretched it out to include the Marathon G2 in this snapshot for you. You’re welcome.
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2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Grid snapshot

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14 top 2yo’s are set compete in this race, some of which look better on paper than others. Looking really good is favorite Game Winner, mostly because he’s won all 3 of his games so far, including 2 G1 races, the last of which was the American Pharoah Stakes, named after one of Baffert’s 2 great Triple Crown winners.
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Given that Baffert is the only trainer alive, and one of only two trainers definitively, to direct the training of 2 separate Triple Crown champions, it’s not a surprise he’s favored. Last year he finished 2nd with his 2nd best horse in this race. But they run the races for a reason. Last year’s heavy favorite finished 3rd.
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The 2nd morning line choice Complexity has every right to claim he’s the one to beat in this race. He’s won both of his races so far, including the Champagne G1 for Chad Brown, winning trainer of last year’s BCJ. Champagne Stakes runner up Code of Honor may have benefited from moving earlier in that fast paced prep. Gunmetal seemed to regress in the Pharoah but he only lost to Game Winner in that one.
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So those are your obvious top choices, but we need to look at some other options that will offer better odds. For one thing, the amount of early speed in this race is very high on paper, with 4 E/EP 8s and 11 in the field of 14 with Quirin Speed Points of 5 or higher.
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What you may not know is that this is typical for the BCJ, since 2yos are forced to run at least somewhat early in their sprint preps to have any chance of winning. In this race, many of them will be taken back off the pace and forced to try to win with a late run.
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But it also forces us to consider some late running options. Standard Deviation is one such horse that will get some play. Performance figures not great but neither of his races had a fast pace. And he’s the only one that is a so far runs from well behind the pace.
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You can make a similar case for Dueling, who finally broke his maiden going a mile. The same could be said for Mr. Money, although neither are far back closers. Mind Control has done nothing wrong and improved with distance in winning the Hopeful G1. Good odds too.
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The longshot I like the best is Well Defined. He has the best PF’s and great numbers all around, including winning his first route last out, handily. He’s a frontrunner so far, but his last 2 didn’t have much pace, so consequently he has great LP numbers also. At 20-1 he’s great value and I expect him to hit the toteboard, but you never know with these first time graded race runners.

Now since we also included the Marathon G2, you should go ahead and use that to try find some value. I really don’t see any good contenders at over 5-1, but the odds will change. Then we have a full day of great racing on Saturday including the coveted BC Classic to deal with. But one day at a time.
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Of course, it’s possible to get the Grid for EVERY Breeders’ Cup race on Friday and Saturday. All you have to do is click here and look at the available options, and play with the Grid like the other pros this weekend.

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That’s all for today. Stay tuned to this site for Saturday’s Selected Stakes. It will appear in the Breeders’ Cup Link above. Good luck!

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