Loading ...Sep 17 2021
Churchill Big Juvenile Saturday Precap; American Free Handicap 2yo Rankings updated
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September 17, 2021. The American Free Handicap (AFH) is now in its third season in this exciting year of racing. Improvements have been made along the way and last year’s rankings proved to be quite successful in ranking the juveniles, and this is a big juvenile racing weekend.
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The top ranked 2020 AFH 2yo highweight Essential Quality went on to win the Southwest G3, Bluegrass G2, Belmont Stakes G1, Jim Dandy G2, and Travers G1, in addition to an impressive Kentucky Derby where he got up for 4th by less than 1.5 lengths, the only race he’s ever lost. He is currently favored for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
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The second ranked colt was Jackie’s Warrior has had much success this year as well, winning the Pat Day Mile G2, Amsterdam G2, and Allen Jerkens G1, adding to his 2 G1 wins as a 2yo.
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So the 2020 rankings served a good purpose in predicting 3yo ability for the most part, and now is a great time to start paying attention to the AFH juvenile rankings with some big 2yo races coming up.
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The expensive but impressive 1-week Kentucky Downs meet is over, but not before it paid out over $2 million to juveniles racing in turf stakes. That makes way for Churchill Downs which opened Thursday and have plenty of stakes racing on the weekends this month.
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On Saturday, Churchill will hold the Iroquois G3 for juvies, and Pocahontas G3 for fillies. Interestingly, only 3 horses that won the Iroquois this century have placed on the board in the Kentucky Derby. But it is important and it’s the first Kentucky Derby Points race in the 2022 Road to the Kentucky Derby.
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In addition to the 11 colts and 11 fillies entered in the two stakes races, which will be run at 8.5f on Saturday, the undercard has two $120k MSW’s at 7f for juveniles in which there are 10 colts entered in each of division. It will be interesting to see who tops out on those two.
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Racing begins at 6PM for the Saturday night card that currently has over 100 horses slated for the 11 races. The MSW’s will be run at 730 and 8pm, and the G3 stakes races beginning at 940pm. Get the day’s free Grid for Churchill to follow along with our breakdowns and make your own picks.
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The Pocohontas G3 has a very competitive field of 11 fillies going for the $300k purse. Two of them are in the current AFH top 100: Ontheonesandtwos and Lemieux.
Ontheonesandtwos is the ML favorite. She broke maiden first out, posting the highest PF in this field, and followed that up with a 2nd in the Debutante Stakes here before having a bad trip at Saratoga.
Hidden Connection is the 2nd choice after posting an almost identical PF first out, winning at Colonial.
Joyrunner at 10-1 ML is the first long shot I like to hit, winning both races and posting the 3rd highest PF.
Goddess of Fire is the 3rd ML choice at 6-1 after breaking maiden first out at Saratoga.
Majestic D’oro at 8-1 looked strong driving off with a first out maiden win at Indiana.
Kneeships at 8-1 has posted strong PF’s and placed in a Saratoga stakes, but this will be first on dirt.
Lemieux at 10-1 is in the top 100 for a win and two 2nd’s, and has a shot here at the lone E style.
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The Iroquois at 1010PM will have 11 competitive colts going for another $300k purse. The only one appearing in the AFH is Roger McQueen checking in at 53.
Major General (4-1) will likely be the post favorite, winning against a strong maiden field first out with top PF at Saratoga for Todd Pletcher.
Stellar Tap 3-1 is the ML favorite after also winning a strong debut maiden race at Saratoga for Steve Asmussen also in August.
Strike Hard at 10-1 is my top long shot in this race, winning at 8f last out with the 3rd best PF in the field.
Bourbon Heist 9-2 will get action, but is still a maiden after 3 races, losing to Major General last out.
Guntown 9-2 won at 8f last out, breaking maiden and posting the 5th best PF.
Roger McQueen at 10-1 has the honor of being the only stakes winner in the field, last out at Ellis.
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The last stakes race is the Locust Grove G3 for 3+ fillies and mares, and only has a field of 7, so be definition it won’t be as good a betting race. But Crystal Ball has high LP which is always attractive for a 8.5f race, and a ML of 8-1 is attractive as well.
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Woodbine will follow all that up on Sunday with 4 juvenile stakes on turf, including the Grade 1 Natalma and Summer stakes which will issue Breeders’ Cup berths to juvies and fillies for the alternative BC juvy turf races. Albuquerque even gets in the mix with a $200k futurity on Sunday.
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After that we will once again update the AFH 2yo rankings with the earnings and results for those races, all of which are used for the juvenile rankings, which will continue to be updated for the rest of the year.
The end-of-year rankings are of course the most accurate since they will take into account all of the big 2yo stakes races and earnings for this year. Hopefully they will be just as effective as last year.
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You can of course, get the premier, color coded condensed handicapping format called the Grid, for all your favorite tracks and races on this page , which includes our fall discount packages.
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