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Breeders’ Cup 2yo Friday! The BC Juvenile Card Nov.4
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Friday, November 4, 2022. Lexington Kentucky.
The Breeders’ Cup is getting underway with a 10 race card custom made for the 2yo’s, highlighted by 5 BC Grade 1 juvenile races to end the day. The undercard includes two more 2yo races at 7f that will be used for comparative sakes. Here’s the stakes rundown.
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Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) Kee Nov 4 $2,000k g 2yo f 8.5f Dirt
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1T) Kee Nov 4 $1,000k g 2yo f 8f Turf
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (FanDuel)) (G1) Kee Nov 4 $2,000k g 2yo c/g 8.5f Dirt
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1T) Kee Nov 4 $1,000k g 2yo c/g 8f Turf
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1T) Kee Nov 4 $1,000k g 2yo 5.5f Turf
Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance S (G2) Kee Nov 4 #$350k g 3&up 13f Dirt
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Weather in Lexington is moderate and sunny Friday before rain could move in on Saturday afternoon for day 2 of The Cup. Today we’ll spotlight The BC Juvenile G1 slated for 5PM Friday as the 2nd to last race on the card. Let’s break it down using the Grid.
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First of all, for those who don’t know: what is the Grid? As seen in the snapshot, it’s a very colorful, concise, and condensed form of PP’s that has superior performance figures. Put it this way, that little snippet above has as much information as 6-8 pages of standard PP’s.
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In color, you can see the PF for each contestant’s last 10 races is color coded, green for grass, brown for dirt, and blue for artificial, and black if the track was muddy. You can see their ML odds, running style, high PF, avg PF, sire and connections, and aggregates to the right: LP, stamina, power, speed, and EP.
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So at one glance, you can see how all the horses stack up in less than a minute. But wait, there’s more! Behind each red marker is more information. Full horse breeding information, the specifications of each past performance and what transpired, and the full pedigree behind the Sire cell.
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If you have the Grid, all you need to do is click or hover over that cell to get that information. So don’t cheat yourself, Get the Grid here and take 90% of the work out of the handicapping process.
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Now that we got that out of the way, you can literally see from looking at it for a few seconds, that the horse to beat is indeed the favorite, undefeated Cave Rock, who has the top figures all around. He comes off a brilliant win, 5 lengths better than National Treasure in the American Pharoah G1.
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Both are surprisingly trained by Bob Baffert who will take on the inferior 8 horse east coast contingent led by Breeders’ Futurity G1 winner Forte, coached by Todd Pletcher. We will have a chance to see if we can believe the west coast figures, but at this moment there’s no reason not to.
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So far, not much value! Are they going to run in exact betting order at the top? It’s possible and has happened before, but let’s at least try to get someone with value in there. I like the 5 Verifying at 10-1 and believe that he simply had trouble with the sloppy Belmont surface last out, after the 3rd best PF in the field registered in his debut.
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If I had to bet the Super High 5 straight, I’d do it like this:
3 4 5 6 10. Not exactly in betting order but at least it’s in numeric order.
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In the BC Juvenile Turf G1, you can also see at a glance that the top contender is European invader Silver Knott, and that’s not why he has yellow shading, which represents performances or birth on another continent. You can see from the ROI section that Appleby does well in these situations.
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Unfortunately we don’t have enough information on the foreign horses to complete the aggregates, but you can see how they stack up in general using the PF’s.
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So that’s how the Grid works, it’s that easy. You just look at numbers and compare them. So don’t cheat yourself this year at the Breeders’ Cup, one of the best betting days of the year.
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