Weekend Winners Club

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Wed, October 7, 2020.  Breeders’ Cup Challenge races abounded around the continent last weekend and will continue this weekend.  With all the races at Belmont, Keeneland, Pimlico, and Santa Anita, the Grid kept popping up with winner after winner, and Grid long shot specials were scattered throughout.

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There were so many Grid winners that there wasn’t a single horse at Keeneland I didn’t have in my rolling wagers all weekend until the very last race on Sunday.  But by then we had already done the damage.  In Friday’s preview article, we specifically called out a 50-1 runner-up as the Super Long Shot Special of the day.  

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So I put together a different type of grid just for the results of Keeneland all weekend and how they relate to the Grid.  Note that most of the winners were 5-1 or less, and there’s nothing we can do about that.  Chalk wins a lot, no matter what you try to do about it.

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But the Grid did provide 4 double digit winners and other longshots that hit the board such as the 50-1 runner up on Friday. There were also 5-1, 6-1, and 7-1 winners that paid out decently.  Check out all the Grid winners below and then we’ll explain why it’s important below.

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Listing all the payouts for every single race would have been a tedious process.  But we did list the Pick 4 payouts, and why? Because using the Grid like we do, you would have likely had every winner in your vertical wagers, unless you had to chop some out due to expenses. 

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That means you would have won every Pick 4 listed. On Friday that didn’t mean much because it was chalky at the top and the 50-1 super long shot special got 2^nd.  On Saturday you would have won almost $6000 just in Pick 4’s.  On Sunday the figure was over $1700.

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That’s why we call it the Weekend Winners Club. Because the weekend is a great time to use the Grid to win some big money on the big handles that are always available. Now even if you had to pare down your Pick 4’s due to expenses as said, you still should have had numerous well paid Pick 3 payouts.

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The results at Pimlico and Belmont were similar but there were shorter fields in general and thus smaller payouts all around, but payouts nonetheless. So next weekend, stop bumming around and put your money to work for you making more money at the races. Plenty of big racing coming up!

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Keeneland began a huge meet last week with graded stakes on every race day.  After a short break late in the month, they come back with the Breeders’ Cup the first weekend of November.  Belmont has 10 graded stakes coming up this weekend, including 4 Grade 1 races and 5 Breeders’ Cup Challenge races.

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Get the Grid for the Breeders’ Cup all the big tracks and races around the continent here.

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And stay tuned to this site for some more great precaps coming up!

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October 2020 Stakes Schedule for North America, Japan, and Ascot available now. Table is sortable by any column and also searchable.

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October 2020 Stakes Schedule for North America, Ascot, and Japan

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Friday, October 2, 2020.  Keeneland reopens today in style, with a Grade 1 and Grade 2 race, both of which are Breeders’ Cup Challenge races.  That means the winner gets an automatic spot in a Breeders’ Cup race at this track next month.  There are 7 more such  races over the course of the weekend, so it’s  a huge BC preview weekend.

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The Ogden Phoenix G2 will be run in race 8 at about 5:05PM ET at 6f on dirt.  The winner gets an automatic berth for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.  None of the horses have yet officially qualified for any BC race but several will no doubt be seen in one of them, most likely the Sprint, next month.  Get the Keeneland Grid here to follow along.

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Diamond Oops is the ML favorite and with top LP and Power ratings, he has every right to win. Last seen winning the Churchill Downs Turf Sprint, he also has won on dirt at various distances.  He ran 8^th in last year’s BC Dirt Mile, his worst career race.

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The ML 2^nd choice Whitmore is also 2^nd in Power and LP in the Grid.  He has multiple stakes wins at this distance this year and was 3^rd in last year’s BC Sprint.

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Lexitonian at 4-1 ML is 3^rd in Power and EP, but also runs well late, and closed for a close neck loss in the Bing Crosby G1 this year, and only 2 lengths behind the winner in the Forego G1.

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No Parole is listed as 5-1 and is the first speed we’ve mentioned.  He won the Woody Stephens G1 in June but went flat last out, fading to 9^th in the Jerkens G1.  That race was won by Echo Town (8-1 ML) one of the best late runners in this field, and who also qualifies as our first long shot special.

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Now let’s get to some real long shots.  Absolutely Aiden at 12-1 is the inside speed, which always counts for something in a 6f sprint.  He has top EP and is on a 2 race winning streak, but this will be his first graded competition.

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Super long shot special Empire Gold is at 50-1 and is also on a 2 race win streak if you exclude the turf race.  His contest at Lone Star 3 races back ties him for the highest PF in the field, and has a great running style for this type of race.

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As you can tell, this race is a somewhat wide open field of 9 with a lot of possibilities.  LP has been doing well at Keeneland today, which bodes well for the chalk.  But, it’s a sprint and if the two frontrunners manage to not disintegrate on the front end, they could do OK.

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The Darley Alcibiades G1 in the next race at 5:40PM will give one of 7 2yo fillies a berth in the BC Juvenile Fillies G1.  3 of them in this competitive field are already stakes winners, so we might see all of them in the BC next month.

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Unfortunately this competition looks very chalky, with 4 fillies listed from 5-2 to 7-2 on the morning line.  The 4 virtual co favorites will all won their first time out and 3 are stakes winners.  The others in the field will need to take a big step up in class to contend.

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Simply Ravishing set the highest PF last out winning the PG Johnson after breaking maiden on turf. 
Thoughtfully also won first out and won the Adirondack G2 last out. 
Travel Column won first out and this will be her first stakes.
Crazy Beautiful won her first 2 and got 2^nd in the Pocohontas G3 last out, the only 2 turn race of the 4 virtual co favorites.

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That’s it for the stakes racing at Keeneland today, but as stated there are 7 more coming up this weekend.  Good luck!

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You can get the Grid for all Keeneland races this weekend, the Preakness, and all the other big tracks and races here for one great price.

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Wednesday, September 30.  It’s never too early to start picking the Preakness, and we began a week ago analyzing a possible field of 15.  Now that we have the final field of 11, barring any scratches, we can make some more accurate predictions.  In our previous edition, we analyzed Kentucky Derby runners historically in the Preakness.

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First, meet the Preakness field including morning line odds after the post draw. We lost 5 horses from last week’s edition, but also added the #5 Kentucky Derby runner.  You can open or download the actual grid spreadsheet here. Vote for the winner at page bottom.

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The first thing that you should notice is that even though we lost 5 from last week, we didn’t lose any front running speed.  There are still 3 E8’s, an EP8, and some EP6’s.  That means the pace will likely get hot up front, and Authentic won’t have it easy. 

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The Derby champ handled it brilliantly last out, but it’s just a month after his best and longest career race, and there’s lots of speed. Baffert has never lost the Preakness with a Derby champ, but this year is different in many ways.  For one, it’s October, and most importantly, there’s no Triple Crown up for grabs this year.

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Competition on the front end includes the brilliant filly Swiss Skydiver, fresh off a Kentucky Oaks runner up finish but vanquished any distance questions with a 10f Alabama romp.  NY Traffic had a disappointing Derby fading to 8th, and also couldn’t keep with Authentic in the Haskell although did scare the champ with a late surge there.

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Art Collector finally enters the Triple Crown fray, and is rated as en EP8 because he has shown the ability to run from off the pace and still win.  His brilliant 5 race winning streak includes one such victory, chasing Swiss Skydiver in the Blue Grass and putting her away for trainer Thomas Drury.

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The 3 EP6’s will certainly pressure the pace, but I only give one of them a serious shot. Pneumatic, who was slated to run in the Derby up until the week of, and finally showed the class that he belonged in his final prep winning the Pegasus.  There is a distance question here, as he’ll have to hold up for another furlong.

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Thousand Words is probably the most interesting newcomer.  Also withdrawn the week of the Derby, the former million dollar baby also won his final prep, in front running style.  But he has shown the ability to win from off the pace, as he did in his first 3 starts, including 2 graded stakes wins for Baffert.

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But all this speed up front should shape up well for late runners, right? Yes it should.  Enter Max Player, a last minute entry, who closed for a strong 5^th in the Derby, which believe it or not was actually the WORST of his past 4 races.  He could be up for another big one here as Asmussen gets a handle on him.

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Mr. Big News is also a good late runner and proved it in the Derby, closing for a strong 3^rd. But that was also his best career race, and after two best career races, he fell flat in the next race. It seems he can’t string together two in a row, and keeps oscillating, so it could be another disappointing race.

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Although the Preakness is commonly thought of as a frontrunner’s race, there’s always an S type late runner that finishes on the board.  And, top 5 Derby finishers usually finish ITM, so one of those two will definitely get purse money and I’m leaning Max Player.  Excession is also an S0 but he will have to show marked improvement in his 7 months off since the Rebel stakes.

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We mentioned just about every horse, if not by name, and how they will play into the pace scenario. Here’s the predicted finishing order of the Preakness based on this analysis.

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3  Art Collector 5-2

1  Authentic        9-5

8  Max Player     15-1

4  Swiss Skydiver              6-1

5  Thousand Words         6-1

10 Pneumatic     20-1

7  Mr. Big News 12-1

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We gave you 7 here because, are you really going to bet the Super High 5 with just 5 horses? OK. However you bet it, good luck! 

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For all past and future Preakness analysis, just click the Preakness link on the top or side menu.

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Click here for Pimlico Grids all Friday, Saturday, or for any other major track and race. A new 2020 only special Preakness thru Breeders’ Cup option.

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Who will win the Preakness?

• Art Collector (35%)
• Authentic (29%)
• Mr. Big News (12%)
• Pneumatic (12%)
• NY Traffic (6%)
• Thousand Words (6%)
• Excession (0%)
• Jesus' Team (0%)
• Liveyourbeastlife (0%)
• Max Player (0%)
• Swiss Skydiver (0%)

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