Weekend Winners Club

Saturday, May 2, Hot Springs, Arkansas. It’s finally here, the day we’ve been waiting all year for, the first Saturday in May. The famous Run for the Apple Blossoms will take place at Oaklawn Park today.  In fact, there will be two Arkansas Derbies with 11 great 3yo runners each today. Each race will be worth $500k and earn 100-40-20-10 Kentucky Derby points.

NOTE: Each Derby field down to 9 after scratches. Revisions to picks and analysis below at 2pm ET.

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It’s not clear to us laypeople how they decided on divvy up the fields, but they have Bob Baffert’s 1 and 1a contenders in separate races as expected, and each is the ML favorite as expected. Steve Asmussen’s 4 pack is also split up into two each, with one solid mid tier contender and long shot in each. Todd Pletcher also has a solid contender in each race.

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Get today’s Free Grid here to follow along.

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Arkansas Derby 1 is race 11 will begin at about 630PM ET and will kick off the stakes racing and the last of 3 Pick 4’s of the day.  Baffert’s Charlatan will be the favorite, although not stakes raced yet, and technically a 2 race wonder.  But in his only 2 races, both this year, he’s put up a pair of PF’s, neither of which has been achieved by any in either Derby.  Reminds you of Justify? Perhaps.

NOTE: 6 Shooters Shoot and 7 Wrecking Crew scratched

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To make matters worse for the competition, there are no other frontrunners on paper to challenge Charlatan on the lead.  So don’t be surprised if someone (code word for Asmussen) sends a horse to the lead as a rabbit (code word for Jungle Runner) to make sure the pace blazes up front.  Because his other horse Basin is 2^nd in Power and Speed, and will improve on the dry track.

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Anneau D’Or is 3^rd in Power and needs to regain last year’s form where he scored the best non-Charlatan PF of any in this field, falling short in the BCJ by a head. Gouverneur Morris, 4^th in Power, 2^nd Stamina, is dangerous and should be forwardly placed to compete.

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Winning Impression and Crypto Cash are 2^nd and 3^rd in LP (behind Charlatan) which always counts for something in a 9f race, and both look like they will be best on a dry dirt track for once.  They also desire a fast pace up front, which unfortunately they probably willnot get.  If they do, great prices in your exotics.

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My Friends Beer has never had a fast pace in his 8 races and could do some damage if it gets heated up frontsomehow, but it doesn’t look like he’ll get his day once again.

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Ark Derby predicted order:  1 11 4 8 9 10   LSS 9 11 10

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Arkansas Derby 2 begins Race 13 at about 745PM ET.  As mentioned, it’s unclear how they choose the fields, because this one has 6 frontrunners or wannabe frontrunners scheduled.  This means things will likely get heated up front whether they want it to or not, and Baffert’s favored Nadal will have a lot of company on the lead.  He’s tops in Power and Speed but could get compromised by the pace.

NOTE: 2 Saratogian and 8 Fast Enough Scratched

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So now it’s time to seriously talk about some LP.  Tops in that category is Asmussen’s Silver Prospector at 10-1 ML.  He got the pace he wanted last 2 out, winning the Southwest G3 and fading in the other one in the slop.  3 of his last 6 were on the mud and his 3 worst PF’s of the 6.

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Finnick the Fierce is 2^nd in LP and has been in our Derby Dozen all year.  He hasn’t done anything wrong, but has never had a fast pace in front of him in his 6 career races.  It will be interesting to see what he does today if he finally gets the hot pace at 15-1.

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Farmington Road 12-1 is 3^rd in LP and was moved earlier than usual last out after giving the leader a 17 length head start at the beginning of the race.  He closed for a strong 2^nd in the Oaklawn stakes.

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Next in LP are Fast Enough (SCRATCHED), who may be just enough to catch some purse money, and Wells Bayou, who although a frontrunner, usually is game in continuing a strong late kick and likes to win gate to wire.

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Arkansas Derby 2 predicted order:  7 1 12 5 11 4   LSS 7 1 12 8

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Sandwiched in between the 2 Arkansas Derbies will be the Oaklawn Handicap G2 full of 14 great older horses. This one has 2 frontrunners and one more that will be pressuring them, so it should be an honest pace up front but probably not blazing. For this reason we have to seriously consider LP which has been doing very well at two turns at Oaklawn recently.

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The top 4 late runners in the Oaklawn are all very close in LP, within 2 points of each other and all over 100 in that calculation, so take your picks.

By My Standards 9-2 looks the most likely since he’s won 2 in a row, including the New Orleans Classic G2 last out in which he easily held off Captivating Moon and Chess Chief, who’s 30-1 but finished only 3 back in that race.  He’s 1 of the top 4 in LP and if he gets that fast pace up front, he could win this.

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Combatant 4-1 will also be a betting favorite at 4-1 after winning the Big Cap G1 and has the right to win this at a shorter distance. Sky Promise 20-1 is the final top 4 LP and it will also be interesting to see what he can do behind a fast pace up front and a good trip.

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Next we have Tacitus, the 2^nd best 3yo last year behind Maximum Security, who lost to that one last out by 4 in a Saudi Stakes race.  After that, Mr. Freeze and Trophy Chaser will be in the mix early with Warrior’s Charge but they may all 3 go to fast early and cancel each other out. Of the 3, Trophy Chaser is the one that won from right behind the pace last 2 out, proving he doesn’t need the lead to win.

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Oaklawn Handicap Predicted Order:  12 1 7 8 9 2 SLSS 1 and 8

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Race 14:  In traditional fashion, a 14f allowance race on dirt known as the Trail’s End will wrap up racing today and the Oaklawn meet for the year.  The defending champion Rouge Diesel is the only one who was in last year’s version and the only horse to have raced 14f in their last 10.  But that was also by far his best effort of the last 10.

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It’s easy to say just go LP in this one all the way, except the fact that it’s basically devoid of speed, so we’ll go with power first.  The favorite Carlos Sixes will probably have the lead all to himself.  Just barely ahead of him for #1 in Stamina, Power, and Speed is River Echo at 8-1 so those two have to be key horses.

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Top LP is She Might Tell so let’s not leave her out. Dangerfield, Wickets Way and Ghostly Who also have good power ratings and good LP.

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R14 Trails End prediction:  5 14 12 1 7 8

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The rest of the race top picks will be posted below here at some point before the post time.

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Race 1:  1 12 3 4 2

Race 2:  3 6 10 8 9 1

Race 3:  2 3 4 12 10

Race 4:  11 7 8 9 2 12

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R1:  1 6 12 3.  Didn’t see that 6 coming for 2^nd at 24-1

R2:  6 8 3 9.  About as expected.  1 of the first timers didn’t fire.  Getting 9 to come in at 55-1 jacked up the dime super to $92.  T50 of $27 not bad either for an easy call.

Race 3:  5 4 3 12.  The pacesetters 2 4 and 12 got heated early, going faster at all 3 time calls than the previous 2 races at 6f.  5 hung back a bit and took over for the win.  It wasn’t real shocking to see the 5^th rated Power horse win the race, but the odds of 33-1 were a bit surprising, up from 10-1 ML.

Race 4:  11 5 7 9.  There was nothing much to like about 5’s PP’s but he came out guns blazing this time and tried to steal it on the front end.  Too much pressure from 7 and 11 took over late.  No pay here either. 

The first 4 races were only 6f but LP did very well with a couple wins and finishing in the money.

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Let’s continue picking the rest of the races and get some good LP and Long Shot Specials. Make sure you get the Grid above so you can see who the top LP contenders are.

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Race 5:  8 9 11 12 13 3      LSS 8 13 3

Race 6 Start of mid day Pick 4:  4 2 5 12 7 3             LSS 2 12 7

Race 7:  8 13 10 7 11 12  LSS 11 12

Race 8:  7 8 10 6 5 2 1       LSS 7 8 10 2 1

Race 9:  3 5 1 2 7 10

Race 10: 7 11 2 8 12 4       LSS 8 12 4

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As usual you can get the Grid for all major tracks and races here.

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Friday, May 1. Oaklawn has a big Arkansas Derby eve card today with 10 races and over 110 horses running after morning scratches.  These include the featured Fantasy G3 for 3yo fillies, the Gardenia 80k also for 3yof, and the Arkansas Breeders Championship for all 3up. This is a good day to see how the track and connections are playing out the day before the big Arkansas Derby G1 X 2.

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The expert picks for each race are listed below in order of preference.  In the interest of time, we’re posting the early pick 4 first and then will add the later picks by 4pm ET.  Weather is clear and warm with 0% chance of rain.

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Race 1:  Key 6 and 9 after that it’s a crapshoot. 4 will likely show up on the board somewhere.

Race 2:  11 5 4 1 9 12

Race 3:  7 8 19 1 2 4

Race 4:  6 11 1 8 4 5

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To recap the early Pick 4 it helps to look at what the Grid said and why we said what we did above.

In Race 1, you can see the 1^st and 4^th place finishers were no surprise to anyone.  But you can also see the 3^rd and 4^th were not surprising here either.  We did have them ranked 5^th and 6^th.  In a field with decent amount of speed but only 6f, not surprising to see the top 3 Power finish 1 3 and 4, and the runner up was tied for 3^rd in EP and 4^th in Speed.  Unfortunately no exotics here but alive in Pick 4.

Race 2, again the top 3 this time no surprise to anyone.  But some may have been surprised at the 57-1 long shot in 4^th.  Not here, we had him ranked 5^th as you can see, primarily because he was 2^nd in LP and Stamina in a 8.5f race which had an average amount of speed in it. Really easy dime super that paid $52.

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In race 3 you can see again an average amount of speed and a 6f race.  Thus not real surprising at all to see the top 2 EP fillies finish 1-2 while 2 of our favs finished 3-4.  All top 4 from our top 6 ranked.

Race 4 back to 8.5f, but not a whole lotta speed, so we dared rank the top EP horse 2^nd, while the rest of the top 5 were mostly top Power and LP picks. This paid off well as 11 held on for the win after taking command midway.  Obviously someone using our picks was betting on it since his odds cut in half. A little bit surprised by the 3^rd place finisher, but you can see in the HI column that he does have the 2^nd best PF overall, achieved in a sprint race way back when he was in better form.

So, no trifecta there but there was a nice 50 cent Pick 4 payout of $814.

The remaining races are listed below:

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There is no middle Pick 4 today, there will be tomorrow.  Late Pick 4 starts Race 7.  Pick 5 Race 6.  We like to pick the top 5 or 6 in each so you can have some good shots at the bottom of tri and super.

Race 5:  12 3 5 6 11 1 7

Race 6:  10 12 9 7 6  

Race 7:  3 9 4 11 1 10 2  Pick 4 and first stakes race of the day. Long shots specials 9 10 and 2.

Race 8:  3 5 7 9 2 10  Gardenia 80k wide open, 4 and 12 only non contenders. LSS 9 10 and 2 again.

Race 9:  2 10 3 4 5 11 14   LSS 4 5 11 14

The Fantasy G3 has 11 solid contenders in a field of 13.  2 and 10 are the most proven, both G1 winners.  But there are 4 other graded stakes winners in the field, and several other listed stakes winners.  2 3 4 are all top 3 LP and Stamina so must be included in a field full of speed, along with the G1 winner 10.

Race 10:  6 7 8 11 10 13 3  LSS 11 10

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As usual, you can get the Grid for all the major tracks here.

Good luck! And stay tuned for the Arkansas Derby Precap coming later today, click the Home button up top if you don’t see it by Saturday at noon.

Oaklawn Sat. April 25 Stakes Racing Pick 4 Expert Picks and Grid. Updated 4/26 with results and payouts.

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Saturday, April 25. Hot Springs Arkansas continues to be the Hot Spot for horse racing, a week before the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.  Oaklawn Park has a couple stakes races and over $600k in purse money available today for 11 races and about 115 horses after morning scratches.

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Late in the day, the Pick 4 will kick off at about 5:15 PM ET and include the two stakes races.  The featured Carousel $125k is for fillies and mares 4 and up going 6f, and right before that the Bachelor $100k for 3yo’s also going 6f.  Eight Rings will make his 2020 debut in that one.

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Today is Free Grid PP day, so make sure you grab the Grid in the link below to follow along.

Weather: Moderate and sunny with virtually no chance of rain.

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The early Pick 4 begins race 1 as usual at 1:35PM ET.

Payouts shown are only those we achieved with our picks.

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Race 1:  2 4 12 6 11 7

Result:  12 2 3 1                 Exacta $8.50 yay

Race 2:  7 9 6 4 8 2

Result:  7 4 1 10                 Exacta $23.50

Race 3: 1 4 7 5 2 12

Result:  5 7 10 8                 Exacta $10.20

Race 4: 1 5 2 3 9 10

Results:  6 3 2 1                  Trifecta 28.85     Pick 4 $175.05

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The rest of the races and late Pick 4.

Weather still good. LP and Power doing very well so far with some EP sprinkled in, but several 3^rd and 4^th longshots out of nowhere have happened already.

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Race 5:  10 6 1 9 3 8          Start Middle Pick 4

Results: 6 10 1 7                Exacta $7.90       Trifecta $12.35

Race 6:  1 5 3 10 7 8

Results:  10 7 4 3               No payout

Race 7:  7 10 13 2 11 8  Start Pick 5

Results:  11 13 10 6           No payout here L

Race 8:  4 5 6 8 9 1  start Pick 4

Results:  4 9 8 12               Exacta $7.70       Trifecta $20                         Pick 4 $196

Race 9:  7 9 3 1

Result:  3 9 5 1                    Exacta $8.90       Trifecta $28.75

The Bachelor Stakes $100k for 3yo at 6f now has only a field of 6 after half of them were waiting to see if Baffert would really run Eight Rings, who will now go off at even money or less.  The Grade 1 winner of the American Pharoah is making his 2020 debut after a disappointing BC Juvenile to end last year’s campaign. 

Long Weekend is the speedy front runner to catch.  He’s won 3 of his 4 races including a $90k Gazebo Stakes last out here at Oaklawn at this same distance. It’s quite possible Eight Rings will hook up with him early and it be duel into the stretch.

Little Menace was 2^nd in the Gazebo and would be wise to sit off the pace again and let the top 2 have their speed duel.

Echo Town has the top LP and would also enjoy a speed duel up front to pick up pieces afterwards.

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Race 10: 1 2 8 6 3

Result:  8 6 7 1    Exacta $12

The Carousel $125k stars standout filly and multiple Grade 2 winner Bellafina, who was last seen finishing 2^nd two consecutive Grade 1 races including the BC FM Sprint, to close out last year’s campaign.  She will be tough to beat and has 2^nd LP, top Power and Stamina.

Midnight Fantasy will also be difficult to catch, with top EP and 3^rd in Stamina and Power.  She also has the top PF overall, achieved at this distance in December, in one of her multiple stakes wins.  She is coming off a 5.5f stakes win here at Oaklawn in Feb.

Mia Mischief is my 3^rd choice, with top LP, 2^nd in Power and Stamina, and also a multiple stakes winner.

Amy’s Challenge, Sunny Dale, and What a Fox will compete for the 3^rd and 4^th positions to get your super.

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Race 11: 4 9 6 1 3 11                         Some things are worth waiting all day for…

Result:  3 1 9 4    Exacta $124         Trifecta $684      Dime Super $392              Pick 4 $421          Total $1621

$1200 won on race 11 alone using the Grid.  Account up $1621 after that race including late Pick 4.  

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As usual, the Grid for all major tracks can be obtained here.

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Friday, April 24. Hot Springs Arkansas. Resident expert of HRBW makes free picks for Oaklawn’s early and late Pick 4’s using The Grid as the basis for handicapping.  The early Pick 4 begins on Race 1 at 2:05PM ET.  Horses listed in order of preference.  5 horses so you can bet the tri and super.

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Race 1:  5 10 8 1 9

Race 2:  1 3 5 8 6

Race 3:  3 7 12 8 1

Race 4:  4 8 11 7 2 9

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Race 1 Recap: 12 5 1 8. Surprise 13-1 winner busted up all the bets. 12 had 2^nd best LP but poor PF.

Race 2 Recap:  6 8 5 9.  T.50 paid $105.  Exacta not won, super not won due to 9.

Race 3 Recap: 12 3 6 4.  Exacta was obvious, paid $6.90. Tri and super busted up by 50-1 surprise 3^rd.

Race 4 Recap:  7 9 4 11. Exacta.1 $177  T.50 $741 S.10 $850.  Why did we have 13-1 #7 on our board? She was tied for top LP with #4.  That’s why we use the Grid.  11 and 9 were 3^rd and 5^th in LP BTW. Lots of LP in the early Pick 4. No winning that one obviously.

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Late Pick 4 begins in Race 7 at about 5:06PM ET. Using 6 because you have to bet the super. Don’t worry all the top LP’s are in there.

Weather update:  Still no rain as of 3:45PM.

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Race 5: 7 10 4 3 1 9

Race 6: 5 1 3 4 2 7

Race 7:  8 10 4 6 3 2

Race 8: 10 9 5 6 8 1 2

Race 9: 13 1 5 2 6 12

Race 10: 1 5 2 8 11 6

Good luck.

Late Pick 4 will be posted by 4PM ET.

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Get The Grid for all major tracks right here.

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April 22, 2020. Hot Springs, Arkansas. The first Saturday in May has a big race coming up as usual, but in a more unusual location.  The $750k Grade 1 Arkansas Derby is set to be held on May 2 on Oaklawn for some of the nation’s top 3yo horses who would normally be running at Churchill Downs that day.

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A very large and talented field is lining up to Run for the Apple Blossoms, but it has yet to be determined if the race will be split to run in two divisions.  About a dozen horses have connections that are strongly interested and another 8 or so are on the fence for the time being, most depending on whether the field will be split.  Perhaps they can add an auxiliary gate and just run 20 at once.

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The list of horses that are possible for this year’s edition is long but distinguished.

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Horse	Sire	Trainer	Last Race
Silver Prospector	Declaration of War	Asmussen	6th, 2020 Rebel Stakes (G2)
Pneumatic	Uncle Mo	Asmussen	1st, OP AlwOC (4/11/2020-R6)
Excession	Union Rags	Asmussen	2nd, 2020 Rebel Stakes (G2)
King Guillermo	Uncle Mo	Avila J	1st, 2020 Tampa Bay Derby (G2)
Nadal	Blame	Baffert	1st, 2020 Rebel Stakes (G2)
Authentic	Into Mischief	Baffert	1st, 2020 San Felipe (G2)
Charlatan	Speightstown	Baffert	1st, SA AlwOC (3/14/2020-R6)
Azul Coast	Super Saver	Baffert	1st, 2020 El Camino Real Derby
Taishan	Twirling Candy	Baltas R	3rd, 2020 Oaklawn Stakes (LS)
Wells Bayou	Lookin At Lucky	Cox Brad	1st, 2020 Louisiana Derby (G2)
Soros	Commissioner	Delgado G	5th, GP AlwOC (3/27/2020-R9)
Shooters Shoot	Competitive Edge	Eurton P	1st, OP AlwOC (4/11/2020-R4)
Storm The Court	Court Vision	Eurton P	3rd, 2020 San Felipe Stakes (G2)
Gouverneur Morris	Constitution	Pletcher	4th, 2020 Florida Derby (G1)
Farmington Road	Quality Road	Pletcher	2nd, 2020 Oaklawn Stakes (LS)
Attachment Rate	Hard Spun	Romans	3rd, 2020 Gotham (G3)
Blackberry Wine	Oxbow	Sharp J	2nd, OP AlwOC (4/11/2020-R4)
Anneau d’Or	Medaglia d’Oro	Wright B	9th, 2020 Risen Star (G2)

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Obviously Baffert will not likely run 4 horses in a field of 12-14, but if it splits into two divisions, it’s probable that he would try to run a pair of them in each. That of course will hinge on getting permission from Steve Asmussen who owns Oaklawn (humor). Asmussen will likely run at least 2, and 3 if they split.  

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Tiz the Law will not be part of the field, which is not a big surprise since he is the current Kentucky Derby points leader and has his Derby ticket stamped in permanent ink.  Plus his owner said, “We’ll stay here on the East Coast and see what happens,” Knowlton said. “I don’t want to face Bob Baffert until I have to.”  Gulfstream is still racing and may add some 3yo stakes races if they want.  

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Churchill Downs will probably add more qualifying points races for the Kentucky Derby since there aren’t any currently scheduled after the Arkansas Derby.  Candidates could include the Preakness and Belmont if they remain on the schedule, and even Saratoga races like the Jim Dandy and Travers. 

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Of course, if certain tracks reopen this summer, any number of the 5 big preps that were canceled could be rescheduled.  So we could still see the UAE Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes, and Santa Anita Derby, all worth 100 points, and even the Sunland Derby worth 50 points and a Derby ticket. 

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 The full list of Kentucky prep races with results is right here. The list includes a link to the results chart except for those that have been indefinitely postponed or canceled.  We also included recent Oaklawn preps that have no points associated, but nonetheless were used as preps for the Arkansas Derby.  

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Kentucky Derby Central has all the links you need on one page.

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April 22, 2020. Hot Springs, Arkansas.  The Grid again proved an invaluable source of handicapping at Oaklawn, getting the right chalk horses and some great long shots as well.  Just so you know we don’t make this up, you can see the full Precap article and Grid that were posted on Saturday for reference. We don’t do this often because it takes time, but occasionally people need to see the benefits of this.

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Let’s start with the Count Fleet G3.  In the Precap, we outlined the 4 chalk horses of less than 5-1 ML, and said this about it:

“Of these 4, Whitmore and Flagstaff are the most likely to actually win.  Bobby’s Wicked One, Hidden Scroll, and Share the Upside are likely to get in a speed duel up front since each of them basically needs the lead to win, so they are likely to be compromised.”

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All of that came true.  Whitmore took command in the stretch, and Flagstaff came out of nowhere to get up for 2^nd, passing 6 horses in the stretch.  The other 3 were all in the top 4 entering the stretch and faded out of the money by the finish line.

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We also mentioned 4 long shot specials to use in exotics, including these 2:

“Manny Wah (30-1, P2) was on the Derby trail also last year before reverting to sprint.  He was horrid last out and I don’t know the exact excuse, but his previous 3 showed great form with 2 neck losses and a valid effort in a G1 at 7f, likely not his best distance which is 6f (today’s distance).  30-1? That’s a Super Long Shot Special.

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Nitrous (20-1, S0) has top LP and 2^nd in Stamina may not mean much in a 6f sprint, but it’s still top LP either way, and he has won at 6f before.  Trouble is, he’s been beaten by Hog Creek Hustle in all 3 of their matches.  But if the going gets hot, he’s a nice price to have in your tri or super. “

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So what? Well the actual results were as follows:

1^st  Whitmore 3-1

2^nd  Flagstaff 7-2

3^rd  Manny Wah 74-1

4^th  Nitrous 15-1.

50 cent trifecta paid $318

Dime super paid $560.

And all the analysis of course is based on the Grid.

Whitmore was top Power and 3^rd in Speed and Stamina.

Flagstaff was 1^st in Stamina, 2^nd LP and 2^nd in Power

Manny Wah had the 3^rd best PF overall, achieved at this distance 4 races back. (Top PF was Whitmore)

Nitrous was top LP and 2^nd in Stamina as mentioned in the Precap.

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In the Apple Blossom G1, once again our analysis, based on the Grid, was spot on.  After introducing the 3 favorites, we said this:

“Of the 3, Ce Ce seems like the most likely winner, with a great pace pressing running style good for the occasion.  The other 2 are both front runners that will have to contend with front runner Cookie Dough, also coming off a graded stakes win, this one in the slop at Gulfstream.”

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As we now know, Ce Ce actually won and the other 2 finished off the board after fading. The #1 long shot we mentioned was Point of Honor, who finished 3^rd at 6-1.  

“Point of Honor (10-1 ML).  Normally when a horse is double digits ML and has top LP and Stamina in the Grid, it goes off at around half that.  5-1 maybe not a bad price considering the top LP margin.  Not an impressive debut this year at 7f, but the last time out chasing a fast pace, she won the Black Eyed Susan G2.  This is an automatic bet at anything 5-1 or over. “

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Coming in 2^nd was Ollie’s Candy at 7-1, whom we did not mention for some reason but is listed as 3^rd in Power, Speed, and EP in the Grid.  A brilliant ride by Rosario but he got caught in the end by the better mare.

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For race 9, the 2^nd leg of the Pick 4, again some good analysis.

“To be honest, I really don’t like the 3 chalky ones in this race… Break Even has the best chance but is coming off a horrid 6th in her 2020 debut.”

Of course, Break Even was top in EP, Speed, and Power, and impossible to ignore as a key horse. She won at 8-5 as nobody could match her speed that day.

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Then we recommended 4 horses that were within a point of each other for 2^nd in Power, Stamina, and LP.  Shanghai Tariff 5-2 Meadow Dance 4-1 Mr. Brave, an E8 at 10-1.  Headland (10-1, EP5).  Sure enough, 3 of these completed the superfecta. Headland was the top long shot recommended and finished 3^rd at 7-1.

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So you can see that using the Grid and some sensible analysis, you can roll in some great exotics in any type of race. 

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As usual, you can get the Grid for every race day at Oaklawn, Gulfstream, and Tampa right here.

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Saturday, April 18. Hot Springs, Arkansas remains the hot spot for horse racing this month as Oaklawn hosts 2 more graded stakes races.  The featured Grade 1 Apple Blossom with a full field will follow 9 races including the Count Fleet G3.  Altogether 11 races with almost 130 horses after morning scratches.

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Let’s talk about the 2 stakes races.  Grab the Oaklawn Grid here so you can follow along.

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Apple Blossom G1 8.5f dirt 4up FM: 

This year has a very competitive field of 14 including 10 graded stakes winners.  None of them have run in this race before. There are only 3 single digit mares on the morning line, all at low odds.  It’s hard to say which one will be favored at post time.   

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Meet the favorites:

Come Dancing (3-1 ML) is 2^nd in Power and Stamina, in her 2020 debut after an embarrassing BC Filly and Mare Sprint performance to close out last year.

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Ce Ce (7-2 ML) is putting it altogether nicely after 5 lifetime races, going 2 for 2 this year including a 3 length win in the Beholder Mile G1 last out.  Top 5 across the board in the Grid.

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Serengeti Empress (4-1) is tops in Speed and Power in the Grid, and used her front running style effectively last out winning the Azeri G2 at this track and distance in the sloppy going.

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Of the 3, Ce Ce seems like the most likely winner, with a great pace pressing running style good for the occasion.  The other 2 are both front runners that will have to contend with front runner Cookie Dough, also coming off a graded stakes win, this one in the slop at Gulfstream.

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Meet the long shot specials:

Point of Honor (10-1 ML).  Normally when a horse is double digits ML and has top LP and Stamina in the Grid, it goes off at around half that.  5-1 maybe not a bad price considering the top LP margin.  Not an impressive debut this year at 7f, but the last time out chasing a fast pace, she won the Black Eyed Susan G2.  This is an automatic bet at anything 5-1 or over.

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Lady Apple (15-1) Are you kidding me? One bad race in the slop last out in the Azeri doesn’t mean the horse doesn’t have a chance.  Her previous slop race was also miserable.  Before the Azeri, she beat Serengeti Empress and Street Band (15-1) in a Houston G3 race. There is no chance of slop today.

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Queen Nekia (20-1) narrowly missed catching Cookie Dough in the Royal Delta G3 last out after hitting the gate at the start. She won the previous 2 and I’d like to see what she does with a fast pace up front and a good start and trip.  4^th in Power, 2^nd in LP.

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Go Google Yourself (12-1) is tied for 2^nd in LP and 3^rd in Stamina, great for an EP7 running type.  She doesn’t need the lead to win, proving that in winning 3 of her last 4 all graded races. Untested against anyone in this field but she’s ready for the test.

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As usual you can get the Grid for all the major tracks, which right now number only 3, at this link.  Keep in mind that these 3 tracks are each running as many competitors as 2 typical tracks every day, due to horses shipping in from closed tracks all over the country.

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Count Fleet Grade 3 6f dirt 4up: 

The competitive field of 11 includes 10 stakes winners that will kick off the late Pick 4 at about 5:15PM ET. The pace shape does not look terribly fast for a sprint, but with the top 4 early runners being E7, E6, EP6, and E6, it could get heated as 2 of them never win without the lead at 1C.

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Meet the chalk:

Whitmore (5-2, P3) beat 4 others in this field last out in winning the Hot Springs Stakes here at Oaklawn, including Share the Upside, who got the better of him in the previous race, front running for the win. The Grid says he’s 1^st in Power and top 3 across the board in other categories.

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Bobby’s Wicked One (3-1, E6) is the only other horse in this field to have beaten Whitmore, almost a year ago in the Churchill Downs G1. Recently he’s 2 for 2, both stakes races at FG.  He’s won 5 of his last 10 races, all when he led at 1^st call, and lost the other 5, none of which he got the lead by 1C.  Tied for 2^nd in EP just one behind the leader in a 6 horse group that has EP between 94-96.

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Hidden Scroll (4-1, E6) got back to his debut form, winning by 12 last out at 6f in only his second sprint race.  Bill Mott was so sure he would be a two turn horse after his debut 14 length win at 8f, that he immediately entered him in the Fountain of Youth, where he was favored and lost by 3, then the Florida Derby, in which he was also favored and lost by 11.  The last 2 1-turn races he has been much better. Top 3 or 4 in most categories.

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Flagstaff (7-2, EP5) as his name suggests, is the west coast invader, is on an impressive roll with his last 4, all stakes races with 2 wins and 2 ITM finishes.  The Grid has him 2^nd in LP, 1^st in Stamina, 2^nd in Power. He rarely runs on the lead and prefers to stalk from the 2 or 3 spot and win in the stretch.  

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Of these 4, Whitmore and Flagstaff are the most likely to actually win.  Bobby’s Wicked One, Hidden Scroll, and Share the Upside are likely to get in a speed duel up front since each of them basically needs the lead to win, so they are likely to be compromised.

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Meet the long shot specials: 

Hog Creek Hustle (15-1, S2) would be one of those who benefit if the pace gets heated up front.  A good late runner, he comes up big every now and then.  On the Kentucky Derby trail last year, he’s been running from 6-8f since a horrid Louisiana Derby. 7f looks like his most effective distance but he can win at 6.

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Manny Wah (30-1, P2) was also on the Derby trail also last year before reverting to sprint.  He was horrid last out and I don’t know the exact excuse, but his previous 3 showed great form with 2 neck losses and a valid effort in a G1 at 7f, likely not his best distance which is 6f.  30-1? That’s a Super Long Shot Special.

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Mr. Jagermeister (15-1, EP6) is probably in peak form right now in his last 2 after some subpar races late last year.  You can’t leave out the top EP horse in a 6f race, even with the possibility of a speed duel.  He capitulated late to Whitmore last out attempting to steal it on the front end.  He has the speed to win, but doesn’t need the lead to win.

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Nitrous (20-1, S0) has top LP and 2^nd in Stamina may not mean much in a 6f sprint, but it’s still top LP either way, and he has won at 6f before.  Trouble is, he’s been beaten by Hog Creek Hustle in all 3 of their matches.  But if the going gets hot, he’s a nice price to have in your tri or super.

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R9 5:45ET 6f D OClm 50000n$y 4 UP FM. 

The pace shape in this one does appear to be heated on paper.  Here are your frontrunners:  EP7, E4, E8, E5, E8, EP7.  That’s a lot of frontrunning for any race, so we will be looking closely at late runners again.

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To be honest, I really don’t like the 3 chalky ones in this race.  They’re all frontrunners and should be compromised by getting caught up in the speed duel up front.  Even if they try to rate them that might not work either. Break Even has the best chance but is coming off a horrid 6^th in her 2020 debut.

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Best chances / long shot specials:

Heaven’s Whisper (6-1, P2) is top in LP and Stamina, and I could say enough said, but let’s expound. Coming off 2 wins in the sloppy going at Oaklawn, but those wins also came after a trainer change to the Paul Holthus barn.  He’s shown steady improvement with a lot of races the past 7 months.

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There is a slew of 4 horses within 1 point of each other for 2^nd in Power, Stamina and LP, so it’s from these we will try to choose those who have the best chance.  Shanghai Tariff 5-2 and Meadow Dance 4-1 are 2 of them, and as aforementioned they will likely get caught up in the racket early, along with Mr. Brave, an E8 at 10-1.  That pretty much just leaves us with:

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Headland (10-1, EP5) looks solid for this one. Top 2 or 3 across the board in Grid aggregates, he has the right running style to get a good effort without getting caught up in a duel. His last 2 PF’s are as good as anyone else has done in their last 3.

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Spring in the Wind (20-1, P0).  It wouldn’t be complete without a super long shot special (SLSS), and this guy is tied for 2^nd in LP with those others, but with a legit come from behind running style.  I’m throwing out the 2 graded route races, he should never have even been entered. Going back to 6f on dirt could be just what the doctor ordered.

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R11 6:47ET 8.5f D Clm 50000 4 UP: 

There’s enough speed in this to make for a legit pace, but not so much that one of the front running types can’t hold on for a win or ITM.  Because the only true frontrunner is Curlin Rules, and he could even hold on for a piece. Here are the top contenders as I see it.

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Matrooh (5-1, EP6) flattened out a bit in the slop last out, but won both his prior 2 wins, beating Arrival, Curlin Rules, and Eisenstaedt (yes I had to copy and paste that name). Matrooh is #1 in EP, Speed and Power and 2^nd in Stamina and his early pressing style is perfect here.

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Kurilov (7-2, EP3) won 2 of his last 3 and were it not for a couple of neck outs, would be 4 for 5.  Great running style and the Grid has him #1 in LP and Stamina, and 2^nd in Power.

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Degrom (6-1, EP7) is one that could hold on since he doesn’t need the lead.  He’s top 3 or 4 in LP, Stamina, Power, and is in top form this year with 2 great efforts.

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Timeline (4-1), Super Dude (6-1), and Hawaakom (15-1) should round out the exotics in some way. The last one is obviously the long shot special. 

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Good luck!

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Saturday, April 11, 2020.  Oaklawn Park has a big race card going today, highlighted by the Oaklawn Mile for $150k and the featured inaugural Oaklawn Stakes for $200k.  Altogether there are 12 races on the card and over 130 horses running after morning scratches. 

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As we’ve said before, the fields are stacking up at Oaklawn due to shippers from mass closings of other tracks around the country.  Today is no exception, as there are no less than 10 horses in any race after scratches, and the average field size is 11.25.  This makes for great gambling and parity.

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Most interestingly, it’s a huge 3yo Derby prep day.  That’s right, we’re still talking about the 1^st Saturday in May, the scheduled date of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, which will effectively replace the Kentucky Derby this year.  The Oaklawn Stakes for 3yo’s will follow 6 other 3yo races for Derby hopefuls.

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Let’s talk about the Oaklawn Stakes in which 13 runners are slated to compete for $200k and an Arkansas Derby slot. This field is full of inconsistent but promising colts and geldings.  Even the top 2 ML favorites have come off disappointing races,  Baffert’s Thousand Words in the San Felipe G2, and Asmussen’s Basin in the Rebel G2.

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So consider them to be beatable. The 3^rd choice, Farmington Road, is also coming off a disappointing 4^th in the Risen Star G2, but he wasn’t far behind and the pace up front was slow.  With top LP in the Grid, and plenty of speed scheduled, consider him a definite contender.

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Tied for 2^nd in LP are Shoplifted and Gold Street, whose last performance was a horrific fade for the early runner. After than there are a slew of them close in LP including the 2 favorites, including frontrunner Sir Rick, Taishan, and Background. 

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Sir Rick at 15-1 is the most interesting longshot, coming off 2 great races to kick off his 3yo campaign, including a solid Mine That Bird Derby win last out.  But Cohen will need to keep him from engaging in a speed duel up front with Gold Street, Taishan, and perhaps others.  Same for Taishan.

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Aside from the top 3 ML choices, which appear to be obvious key horses in your exotics, I’d still take Farmington Road for the win if he’s more than 4-1, and there are some great plays on the board. 

Long shot specials:

Sir Rick 15-1

Background 12-1

Digital 8-1

Shoplifted 10-1

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Do with that what you will. Get the Oaklawn Grid here free and make your picks for all 12 races.

Dirty Double Derby Dozen- April 5 2020 – Kentucky Derby Top 25

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April 5, 2020. Kentucky Derby Double Dozen and One Top 25 Rankings. This may be the last chance to get in your futures bets for the Kentucky Derby as Pool 4 closes today, and I wanted to wait to recap some of yesterday’s results before putting this all together.  Chances are, with the Kentucky Derby not running until September, there will be at least one more futures pool.

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This is never an easy exercise, but that’s why you have pros like us to do it for you, sifting through all the results; who beat who, when, and why, and under what conditions.  As said, there’s nothing easy about it at all, but we do it because that’s what we do.  There are some new horse faces among the top 25 that you need to take note of.

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Most notably, Charlatan comes out of nowhere to rank #3, even without any Derby prep races, he has the best pair of PF’s on the board in his first 2 races, rivaling the latest PF’s from Ete Indien and Tiz the Law.  Charlatan has the best 2 Beyers on the 3yo board, and is coached by Baffert. Enough said.

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Speaking of which, Ete Indien barely maintained top 25 status, mainly because of his prior 2 performances.  But it doesn’t look like he will ever hit the board in a Grade 1 race at 10f.  The same could be said of Storm the Court.

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The main purpose of this double dozen is to give you some insight on how to bet your futures pool 4.  It is largely based on the Pool 4 Grid put out earlier this week, but with added insight.  You will see some great odds on horses ranked in our top 12, and also see no ranking assigned to sucker bets such as Shivaree and NY Traffic.

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Without further ado, here’s the top 25 list. You’re welcome and Good Luck!

DerbyDozen.csv

Rank	Horse	Sire	Trainer	Line	Last	Race Out
1	Authentic	Into Mischief	Bob Baffert	SCT	1st	San Felipe G2 Mar.7
2	Tiz the Law	Constitution	Barclay Tagg	API	1st	Florida Derby G1 Mar.28
3	Charlatan	Speightstown	Bob Baffert	RAN	1st	OC80-n1$x 8f SA Mar.14
4	Maxfield	Street Sense	Brendan Walsh	RAN	1st	Breeders' Fut G1 Oct.5
5	Nadal	Blame	Bob Baffert	TTO	1st	Rebel G2 Mar.14
6	Excession	Union Rags	Steve Asmussen	ND	2nd	Rebel G2 Mar.14
7	Sole Volante	Court Vision	Peter Eurton	RAN	2nd	Tampa Derby G2 Mar.7
8	Enforceable	Tapit	Mark Casse	API	5th	Louisiana Derby G2 Mar.21
9	Honor A.P.	Honor Code	John Shirreffs	API	2nd	San Felipe G2 Mar.7
10	Ajaaweed	Curlin	Kiaran McLaughlin	RAN	3rd	Sam F Davis G3 Feb.8
11	Max Player	Honor Code	Linda Rice	API	1st	Withers G3 Feb.1
12	Winning Impression	Paynter	Dallas Stewart	ND	1(DQ5)	OC80-n1$x 8.5f OP Apr.4
13	Independence Hall	Constitution	Michael Trombetta	API	5th	Florida Derby G1 Mar.28
14	Major Fed	Ghostzapper	Greg Foley	ND	4th	Louisiana Derby G2 Mar.21
15	Thousand Words	Pioneerof the Nile	Bob Baffert	RAN	4th	San Felipe G2 Mar.7
16	Anneau d'Or	Medaglia d'Oro	Blaine Wright	ND	9th	Risen Star 2 G2 Feb.15
17	Storm the Court	Court Vision	Peter Eurton	RAN	3rd	San Felipe G2 Mar.7
18	Finnick the Fierce	Dialed In	Hernandez Rey	API	2(DQ1)	OC80-n1$x 8.5f OP Apr.4
19	Mischievous Alex	Into Mischief	John Servis	SCT	1st	Gotham G3 Mar.7
20	Wells Bayou	Lookin at Lucky	Brad Cox	RAN	1st	Louisiana Derby G2 Mar.21
21	King Guillermo	Uncle Mo	Juan Carlos Avila	IE	1st	Tampa Derby G2 Mar.7
22	Gouverneur Morris	Constitution	Todd Pletcher	API	4th	Florida Derby G1 Mar.28
23	Silver State	Hard Spun	Steve Asmussen	ND	3rd	Risen Star 1 G2 Feb.15
24	Untitled	Khozan	Mark Casse	TTO	2nd	Gotham G3 Mar.7
25	Ete Indien	Summer Front	Patrick Biancone	ND	3rd	Florida Derby G1 Mar.28

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April 3, 2020.  The Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 4 opens Friday and will run through Sunday, despite the Kentucky Derby being postponed until September. Initially this weekend we were to see three major exciting and historical Kentucky Derby prep races:  Santa Anita Derby G1, Wood Memorial G2, and Blugrass G2.  These have all been canceled or postponed indefinitely.

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The good news is that racing does continue at 3 major hubs: Oaklawn, Gulfstream, and Tampa Bay Downs.  Horses from all over the country have been shipping in and crowding the fields at these 3, making for great purses, handles, betting, and better racing in general.  The bad news is that the stakes calendar for this month is very thin.

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Many 3yo’s are still prepping for the first Saturday in May, as that is the current rescheduled date of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby worth $750k.  In fact, this Saturday there are 4 races for 3yo’s only at Oaklawn, and all the rest except one are for 3 and up. Gulfstream and Tampa also each have several dedicated 3yo races and other 3ups that they can participate in.

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But the point of this pool is to get a Kentucky Derby winner at good odds, a much different task than in any other year in history.  For example, it’s as likely as not that the horse to eventually win the September Derby is not listed in the futures, and may not even be on the radar yet.  3yos can develop a lot in 9 months, and some current stars can decline or get sidelined during that time.

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In the colorful Grid format PP below, you will see that there are some good deals available, such as two great late runners Enforceable and Sole Volante, who each fell victim to a rather dawdling pace up front in their last race out. The field may be the most likely to win but good luck getting decent odds on that.

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Look at The Grid in its native spreadsheet format here.

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As usual, you can get the Grid for all the major tracks and races here.