Weekend Winners Club

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Recap of the Gulfstream Feb.29 stakes racing with winners, their Grid relevance, notes, and quotes from precap.  To sum it up, we had one 18-1 top LP winner, a listed long shot special winner at 11-1, an 11-1 top EP winner, a 2-1 long shot special winner that was 8-1 morning line, and 10 long shot specials that hit the board in the 10 stakes races.  Oh, and a $2500 early pick 4. Don’t believe me? Look at the Precap article here that includes the Grid.

Gulfstream Park Sat.Feb.29: Fountain of Youth G2 and 8 more Graded Stakes; Grid PP

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R3 12:28ET 6f D HutchesonL100k 3 YO 

Winner:  With Verve 18-1 S0  Top LP. 

Top LP at 6f where there wasn’t an excessive amount of speed on paper, but top LP anyway.

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R4 12:57ET 8.5f T PalmBch-G3 3 YO 

Winner:  Vitalogy 2-1 S0  Top LP, Top Stamina, Top Power

Long shot special Sassy But Smart got 4^th at 19-1.

“Vitalogy has the best LP and Power rankings and it’s hard to believe that his 9-2 ML will hold up and probably won’t go at more than 3-1…Sassy but Smart 15-1 got his maiden win in his 3rd try and first route last out as his speed held up well at a mile.”

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R5 1:27ET 8f T HoneyFox-G3 4 UP FM

Winner: Getmotherarose 11-1  P6,  2^nd in LP, 3^rd Stamina

“There’s a bunch of 5 that are close in LP after that, including Getmotherarose, who closed well and finished only 2 lengths behind Atomic Blonde 9-2 ML in their last stakes race, and yet she’s listed at 15-1.”  – That bunch also included 4^th place finisher La Feve at 8-1.

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R7 2:27ET 9.5f T VeryOne-G3 4 UP FM

Winner:  Elizabeth Way 14-1 S0.  No significant rankings with only 1 American race.

Long shot specials Romantic Pursuit 8-1 (6-1 ML) and Touriga 4-1 (ML 8-1) finished 2^nd and 4^th.

“Romantic Pursuit, at 6-1 ML an EP6 with 2nd LP… if Touriga 8-1 runs 2 races back, she’ll win easily.”

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R9 3:28ET 8.5f T Hcmbride-G3 3 YO F

Winner: Cheermeister 11-1 E8.  Top EP, 2^nd Speed, 5^th of 12 in Power. Unmentioned in Precap.

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R10 3:59ET 8f D DvonaDal-G2 3 YO F

Winner:  Tonalist’s Shape 2-1  P7.  Top Power, 2^nd Stamina, 3^rd LP, 3^rd Speed, 3^rd EP.

Long shot special Dream Marie finished 3^rd at 28-1.

“Tonalist’s Shape looked equally impressive in her stakes mile win, but won’t have a good price either.”

“My eyes almost popped out of my head when I saw Dream Marie listed at 15-1.  She has 3 wins in a row after switching to dirt”

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R11 4:30ET 8f T CanTuf-G3 4 UP 

Winner:  Sombeyay EP8 7-2.  Top EP, Top Speed, 4^th Power, 5^th of 12 in Stamina

Long shot special English Bee finished 2^nd at 10-1.

“Lots of options in this 12 horse field and seemingly enough speed for late runners to prosper, but it will be tough to beat Sombeyay…Caribou Club at 6-1 is tied for 2nd in LP with English Bee 15-1, and there are a slew not far behind in LP points (including Hay Dakota who finished 3^rd at 5-1, and Louder Than Bombs, 4^th at 49-1).”

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R12 5:01ET 8f D GPMile-G2 4 UP 

Winner:  Mr. Freeze 5-2 E8.  Top Power, 2^nd Speed, 2^nd EP, 4^th of 11 in Stamina and LP.

Long shot specials Hog Creek Hustle and True Timber hit 3^rd and 4^th at 11-1 and 17-1.

“Just 1 point behind are Haikal, an S2 at 10-1 and Hog Creek Hustle at 12-1.  True Timber at 15-1 has a good set of PF’s at this distance.”

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R13 5:32ET 11f T MDiarmd-G2 4 UP 

Winner:  Zulu Alpha 1-1 P0.  Top LP, Power, Stamina, and Speed.

Long shot special Channel Maker got 4^th at 8-1.  

“Channel Maker 8-1 and A Thread of Blue 9-2 could hold on…”

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R14 6:04ET 8.5f D FntnOYth-G2 3 YO 

Winner:  Ete Indien 2-1 EP5.  Top 3 or 4 across the board in all Grid categories, best PF at distance.

“4th choice Ete Indien (8-1 ML) has the numbers to compete with any of them.

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So as you can see there were plenty of Grid long shot specials winning and hitting the board, not just the obvious favorites and winners.  Next time, don’t get left out of the run and winnings.  Get the Grid here!

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Saturday, Feb.29, 2020.  Gulfstream Park will host 10 total stakes races, including 3 Grade 2 events and 6 Grade 3 races. The Fountain of Youth for 3yo’s aiming for the Kentucky Derby is the headline race. This will follow 2 stakes races for 3yo’s and 2 for 3yo fillies among the other stakes. The Hutcheson will appear after being postponed last weekend.

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Fountain of Youth G2, race 14, 8.5f 3yo, 6pm: 

A key Kentucky Derby prep race worth 50-20-10-5 points to the top 4 finishers, it is only the 3^rd 50 point race of the season. 

The ML favorite is Dennis’ Moment, in his 2020 debut after a disastrous Breeders Cup Juvenile in November in which he was the heavy favorite but stumbled badly at the start.  Before that he won the Iroquois G3 and his maiden.

Second ML choice Chance It could well wind up the post time favorite after making the most of his first race in open company, winning the Mucho Macho Man here in January. Prior to that he had 2 stakes wins and a 2^nd in state restricted races.  4 wins and 2 losses by less than a length.

3^rd choice As Seen on TV got in an epic stretch duel with Chance It in the MMM but was headed out for the win. It was his first run at a mile but he also has a stakes win along with another stakes 2^nd.

4^th choice Ete Indien has the numbers to compete with any of them.  He tried to go gate to wire in the Holy Bull G3 here at the beginning of the month, but got caught by Tiz the Law, ranked 4^th in our last Derby Double Dozen after setting a wicked pace. 

Those are the main contenders and they’ll be hard to beat by others in the 12 horse field, but because of plenty of early speed runners, at least on paper, we always look for some good LP.

Country Grammer, listed at 15-1 ML, has the top LP distinction, due to his last effort out on 9f on Aqueduct, breaking his maiden in his 2^nd lifetime race and 1^st on dirt.  He chased what appeared to be a ridiculously slow pace and drew off in the end.  He should be able to work that same closing move vs a rapid contested pace, and improve on his only dirt PF significantly, and therefore is your long shot special. 

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Stay tuned for further analysis of the other stakes races, and grab the Grid below to start your own analysis.

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Scratches processed.

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Hutcheson Stakes, Race 3, 6f 3yo, 12:28 pm.

This one, which was originally scheduled a week ago, kicks off the stakes action today.  The short field of 6 after the scratch of Scarto doesn’t leave a lot of options.  It should be quite chalky, but it’s not unreasonable to think King Snake make noise in his 2020 debut. He showed a lot of speed in his first and only outing at sprint, narrowly losing to Peruvian boy, but that was 7 months ago and he hasn’t run in 6 months.  He does seem like the only reasonable long shot.

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Palm Beach G3, 8.5f turf, 3yo, 1pm:

Some solid single digit ML runners for sure, but some great long shots. Life on Top 12-1 has the highest turf PF, achieved last out with a great closing win from 7^th in his first and only turf race.  Sassy but Smart 15-1 got his maiden win in his 3^rd try and first route last out as his speed held up well at a mile.

Vitalogy has the best LP and Power rankings and it’s hard to believe that his 9-2 ML will hold up and probably won’t go at more than 3-1. Even though he hasn’t won a stakes race, he has the best stakes record finishing in the money in all 3 graded races.

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R5 1:27ET 8f T HoneyFox-G3 4 UP FM

Again, the single digit fillies have merit, but this is a turf mile so we always look for good LP.  It’s hard to believe Miss Munnings is listed at 8-1ML with the highest LP by far, especially since she’s not a rear end plodder, but the oddsmakers don’t have the Grid. There’s a bunch of 5 that are close in LP after that, including Getmotherarose, who closed well and finished only 2 lengths behind Atomic Blonde 9-2 ML in their last stakes race, and yet she’s listed at 15-1. 

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R7 2:27ET 9.5f T VeryOne-G3 4 UP FM

The scenario in this turf route is a bit different.  The top LP and Power racer is also the ML favorite. However, the race is almost devoid of speed, with no true front runners, only 3 of 12 have ever had the lead at 1^st call, and 3 with Quirin points above 3. 1 such horse is Romantic Pursuit, at 6-1 ML an EP6 with 2^nd LP.  Queen of Time 12-1 also runs early with estimated QP of 5 or 6 and has a solid stakes record on her former continent. Aside from all that, if Touriga 8-1 runs 2 races back, she’ll win easily.

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R9 3:28ET 8.5f T Hcmbride-G3 3 YO F

Back to the previous scenario.  Again, plenty of early speed and some solid chalky runners, but the top LP/stam runner is at 10-1 ML and is the only S type and only filly with 0 QP.  I would actually be somewhat stunned if Stunning Sky doesn’t win, last to first style of course.

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R10 3:59ET 8f D DvonaDal-G2 3 YO F

Yes the favorite Spice is Nice looked great in winning her debut by 12, but there are 8 others. Tonalist’s Shape looked equally impressive in her stakes mile win, but won’t have a good price either.  My eyes almost popped out of my head when I saw Dream Marie listed at 15-1.  She has 3 wins in a row after switching to dirt. Chart at 10-1 won her only race quite easily and should extend well at a mile.

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R11 4:30ET 8f T CanTuf-G3 4 UP 

Lots of options in this 12 horse field and seemingly enough speed for late runners to prosper, but it will be tough to beat Sombeyay. Top LP and sole S0 Hembree is 5-1 and will likely go off as virtual lukewarm co favorite. Caribou Club at 6-1 is tied for 2^nd in LP with English Bee 15-1, and there are a slew not far behind in LP points. Mr. Dumas 12-1 won a G3 late last year and could benefit changing to Maker.

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R12 5:01ET 8f D GPMile-G2 4 UP 

Good options available here as well.  4 early frontrunners and 4 later runners within 2 LP points of each other. Top LP of 99 goes to Expert at 8-1ML, who also has very competitive PF’s.  Just 1 point behind are Haikal, an S2 at 10-1 and Hog Creek Hustle at 12-1, and a point behind them is Do Share at 15-1.  That’s an LP box that would pay beaucoup bucks.

True Timber at 15-1 has a good set of PF’s at this distance.

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R13 5:32ET 11f T MDiarmd-G2 4 UP 

It’s a long race, but regardless of distance, there is a reason for the saying “pace makes the race.” Back to the Very One scenario in which the top LP and Power runner is also the favorite. But there are only 2 early runners, and 1 or both of them will likely lead a significant percentage of the way. Channel Maker 8-1 and A Thread of Blue 9-2 could hold on for the win. Only 1 other has led one of their past 10 races before entering the stretch, Spooky Channel 20-1 coming off his first graded stakes win and half brother to Channel Maker who is a multiple G1 winner.

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That brings us back full circle to the Fountain of Youth, and as demonstrated above, there is at least one good long shot in every stakes race.  It’s up to you to fill in the blanks in the MSW’s, but those will likely be filled in by Pletcher and Chad Brown.   

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As usual, you can get the Grid for all the major tracks and races here.

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Sunday, February 23, 2020. Sunland Park hosts 4 stakes races today, 3 of which are for various 3yo categories, including the Mine That Bird Derby. All of the stakes are ungraded and none will issue Kentucky Derby points, but the races could be stepping stones to appear at Churchill in May.

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The MTB Derby is a short but competitive field of 6 young 3yo colts, the likes of which any can win. The good news is that is the shortest field of the day. However, the gate at Sunland only holds 10 so there aren’t any huge fields. Use the Grid to make your picks.

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Saturday, February 15, 2020. Fairgrounds has it’s biggest day of the year so far, by far. Two Risen Star G2 fields with 25 horses entered, with each worth 50 Kentucky Derby points to the winner. Derby Double Dozen #2 Anneau D’or will run along with 3 other ranked 3yo colts.

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Preceding that will be the Rachel Alexandra G2 for 3yo fillies which follows other graded stakes races and a multitude of other 3yo races so it’s a huge Derby and Oaks prep day. The biggest of the year by far.

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Use the Grid provided free here today to make your picks.

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Get the Grid for all the major tracks and races here.

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Saturday, February 8, 2020.  Delta Downs hosts its famous Louisiana Premier Night series tonight with 10 stakes races in various distance , age and sex categories.  None of the races are graded but there is over $900k in purse money up for grabs tonight for almost 100 runners scheduled.

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We’re not going to break down every race, because the Grid is available with the link below so you can do that as you see fit. But there are a couple of perhaps key 3yo races going forward, and some long shot specials scattered throughout the day.

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Premier Prince 8f 100k 3yo:

No Parole will be heavily favored after his first 2 races, both at 6f, were 14 and 13 length wins at a maiden then allowance race.  If his speed holds up well at 8f he’ll be impossible to beat, as he is tops in all Grid categories. There is a lot of speed in the race, so he will be challenged on the front end.  Freedomfi, 2^nd in LP, would like to benefit from a speed dueling and missed by a nose last time at 8f 2 races back and looks like this will be his best distance.  Race looks chalky.

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Premier Starlet 8f 100k 3yof:

Stephsfullasugar has a horrible name but was impressive in her debut, winning by 2 and posting the highest first out PF in the field.  That race gives her top LP because it was the highest single race LP in the field. I seriously doubt the 5-1 ML will hold up and you’ll be lucky to get more than 5-2.

Vacherie Girl is the actual ML fav at 5-2 and deservedly so, winning her 1^st 2 races with a great closing move, including a 100k stakes in which she posted the highest dirt PF of any in this field.  Last out she fell a few lengths short behind a putridly slow pace in a 100k futurity. Grid: 2^nd in LP, top in Power

Our Lost Love at 3-1 ML benefitted from that same futurity by going gate to wire on an easy pace. Her last 2 races tie themselves as the 2^nd best dirt PF’s in this field.  The Grid has her at top in EP and Speed, and 2^nd in Power, and she also has the highest PF overall, posted on turf in her 1^st career race.  It is unlikely she will get an easy lead, because Sarah’s Passion, tied top EP, always tries to run on the lead.

Jet Sweep, 15-1 ML is tied for 3^rd best PF overall with Stephs’ with her last out victory in which she uncharacteristically took a lead that nobody else wanted.  Tied for 2^nd in LP, she normally runs from well behind and delivers a good closing move.  I doubt she’ll win but a good long shot special to include in the exotics, which look otherwise to be quite chalky.   

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Other interesting long shot specials.

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Race 2 Bon Temps 4upfm 5f:  Normally top LP doesn’t come to mind at 5f, but there is plenty of speed in this one and Miss Pat’s Girl at 10-1 ML has top LP and Stamina, along with competitive PF’s.

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Race 4 Rajun Cajum 4up 5f:  Again with the LP at 5f, but there’s plenty of speed, I’d be shocked if the tactical P4 runner Fire Blaster at 6-1 ML with top LP and Stam doesn’t finish in the money.

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Race 6 Gentlemen’s 4up 8.5f:

Finally we have a fully justified use of LP here.  5 E-type horses including 2 E8’s will lead the way. There are also 5 runners within 2 LP points of each other from 81-83.  2 of those are the top ML favorites, and the other 3 are 5-1, 8-1, and 8-1.  Rifle Man, a P0 latest runner in the field, is one of those at 8-1 along with Pinch Assault.

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Race 8 Sprint 4up 5f:

Again with the top LP, but this time we’re talking about an EP6 that will be within striking range anyway.  Bending Saint at 5-1 ML could be a good mid-shot if the odds hold up or go up.

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So there you have it, the even numbered races have good top LP long shot specials. 2-4-6-8, who do you appreciate?  To show your appreciation, use the donate button above left or sign up to get the Grid for every track and race day here.

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Sign up for Grids for every major track and race day.

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February 7, 2020.  This isn’t the first Double Dozen for Kentucky Derby 2020, but it is the first of the year.  There wasn’t much in the way of official Derby Prep Races in January, in fact only 4 total.  But there were also other assorted 3yo stakes such as the Swale, Mucho Macho Man, Pasco, etc, that had to be, and thus were, taken into account.

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Kentucky Derby Central

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Most people don’t understand how difficult it is to do a list like this at this time of year, trying to factor in a lot of unofficial races and taking into account that some on the list either haven’t run this year, or haven’t run a stakes race yet, or both.  But no worries, that’s why we the experts are here, and thus you can digest the info.

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As luck would have it for you, we’re right on time for Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 2 which opens today and runs thru Sunday, so you can use this information to your advantage.  Congrats if you got Authentic at 50-1 in Pool 1. We had him at #15 in December before he ran a stakes race.  He opens at 15-1 today.  Without further ado, here’s the top 25.  Below that is the narrative for the top 12 only.

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Kentucky Derby Top 25, Feb.7, 2020p

Rank	Horse	Sire	Trainer	Line	Last	Race Out
1	Thousand Words	Pioneerof the Nile	Bob Baffert	RAN	1st	Bob Lewis G3 Feb.1
2	Anneau d'Or	Medaglia d'Oro	Blaine Wright	ND	2nd	Los Al Futurity G2 Dec.7
3	Authentic	Into Mischief	Bob Baffert	SCT	1st	Sham G3 Jan.4
4	Tiz the Law	Constitution	Barclay Tagg	API	1st	Holy Bull G3 Feb.1
5	Maxfield	Street Sense	Brendan Walsh	RAN	1st	Breeders' Fut G1 Oct.5
6	Storm the Court	Court Vision	Peter Eurton	RAN	1st	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.1
7	Independence Hall	Constitution	Michael Trombetta	API	1st	Jerome 150k Jan.1
8	Ajaaweed	Curlin	Kiaran McLaughlin	RAN	2nd	Remsen G2 Dec.7
9	Enforceable	Tapit	Mark Casse	API	1st	Lecomte G3 Jan.18
10	Max Player	Honor Code	Linda Rice	API	1st	Withers G3 Feb.1
11	Silver Prospector	War Front	Steve Asmussen	ND	4th	Smarty Jones 150k Jan.24
12	Chance It	Currency Swap	Saffie Joseph	ND	1st	Mucho Macho Man Jan.4
13	Wrecking Crew	Sky Kingdom	Peter Miller	RAN	4th	Los Al Futurity G2 Dec.7
14	Gouverneur Morris	Constitution	Todd Pletcher	API	2nd	Breeders' Fut G1 Oct.5
15	Finnick the Fierce	Dialed In	Hernandez Rey	API	4th	Lecomte G3 Jan.18
16	Mischievous Alex	Into Mischief	John Servis	SCT	1st	Swale G3 Feb.1
17	American Theorem	American Pharoah	George Papaprodromou	RAN	2nd	Amer.Pharoah G1 Sep.27
18	Silver State	Hard Spun	Steve Asmussen	ND	2nd	Lecomte G3 Jan.18
19	Ete Indien	Summer Front	Patrick Biancone	ND	2nd	Holy Bull G3 Feb.1
20	Royal Act	American Pharoah	Peter Eurton	RAN	2nd	Bob Lewis G3 Feb.1
21	Gold Street	Street Boss	Steve Asmussen	RAN	1st	Smarty Jones 150k Jan.24
22	Basin	Liam's Map	Steve Asmussen	RAN	1st	Hopeful G3 Sep.2
23	Premier Star	Tapiture	Jorge Navarro	API	1st	OC75-n1x 7f Jan.15
24	Dennis' Moment	Tiznow	Dale Romans	INR	8th	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.1
25	Nadal	Blame	Bob Baffert	TTO	1st	Mdn 55k 6.5f Jan.19

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Derby Dozen Top 12 Justification (Sire, Trainer):

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1- Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile, Bob Baffert):  Top notch sire and trainer. Followed up his Los Al Futurity G2 win with a Bob Lewis G3 win to begin February.    Los Al Fut winners have an excellent Kentucky Derby record, dating back to before Baffert’s Kentucky Derby winner Real Quiet.   Proven trainer and sire, great performances, beat the BCJ runner up in Dec.

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2- Anneau D’Or (Medaglia D’oro, Blaine Wright):  Sire may have only finished 4^th in the Kentucky Derby, but was also nosed in the Belmont and became almost unbeatable as a 4yo.  The trainer may not ring many bells, but with a great horse he doesn’t need to.  A strong closing second in both the BCJ and Los Al Fut, he fell short by a nose in each. It looks like he just needs another furlong or so to correct that issue. Finished last year strong, yet to race this year.

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3- Authentic (Into Mischief, Bob Baffert):  As usual, Baffert has a couple in the top 5.  Authentic was at 15 last year after breaking maiden first out, then opened the year with a 7+ length win in the Sham G3, getting some attention from others besides us insiders. The Sham field was of questionable validity but he put them away with ease.  Into Mischief is becoming one of the great sires of the Storm Cat sireline.

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4- Tiz the Law (Constitution, Barclag Tagg):  Great young sire, good veteran trainer who is best known for his work with Funny Cide.  After winning the Champagne G1 in October, Tiz the Law also stayed east coast for the KYJCG2 in held 3^rd, just 1 length back.  He opened this year in style with a 3 length Holy Bull G3 win, earning him the first and only 3-digit Beyer figure of the year as well as the only 3 digit Grid PF so far. Also tied for top Grid LP so far.

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5- Maxfield (Street Sense, Brendan Walsh):  Street Sense was one of the rare colts who won both the BC Juvenile and KY Derby, both at Churchill Downs that year.  Maxfield appears to have inherited the same great closing ability, going from 9^th to first to win the G1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland.  He skipped the Breeders’ Cup out west and we eagerly await his 2020 debut.

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6- Storm the Court (Court Vision, Peter Eurton):  Alas we get to the BC Juvenile winner, who certainly turned in the best performance of his short career, surprising bettors and me with a 45-1 win.  Court Vision was more effective on turf but did place well in some graded stakes on dirt.  Because of his inconsistency so far, we can’t rank him #1, but the BCJ performance puts him on the map.  Eurton is a solid veteran trainer but not a household name. Next up:  San Vicente G2 Feb.9.

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7- Independence Hall (Constitution, Trombetta):  The sire is not a household name, but did win some key graded stakes races and his crops are doing very well on the track so far.  I.Hall got on the map with a 12 length Nashua G3 in November, and proved it was no fluke with a 4 length Jerome Stakes win to begin January, marking his smallest win margin in his 3 career races.  Solid veteran trainer and great young sire who’s making a big impact on 3yo’s this year.  Tied for top LP in the Grid. Next up:  Sam F. Davis G3 Feb.8.

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8- Ajaweed (Curlin, Kirian McLaughlin):  Curlin has been a top 5 sire since he retired to stud, McLaughlin a top trainer for decades.  Not awesome in the Breeders Futurity, he did close well for 4^th.  He was last seen racing in the Remsen G2 in Dec., passing 5 rivals to finish 2^nd behind a horridly slow pace set by Shotski, the lucky pace setter who barely held off the late charge.  If he ever gets a fast pace up front, watch out for a great late maneuver.  Next up:  Sam F. Davis G3 Feb.8.

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9- Enforceable (Tapit, Mark Casse):  One of the best Triple Crown sires of the decade, and a trainer who won his first 2 TC races last year.  This Tapit colt didn’t impress much in his first 6 career races last year, all behind mostly absurdly slow paces where his closing moves fell short. That all changed in the Lecomte G3 on Jan.18, where the pace was good enough for him to move from 11^th to 1^st starting along the back stretch with a wide trip all the way around.

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10- Max Player (Honor Code, Linda Rice):  Great AP Indy sire and solid veteran trainer who hasn’t done much on the TC scene, yet.  Previously a blip on the radar, Max Player burst onto the scene with a 3+ length Withers G3 win on Feb.1.  Not a top name prep race, but he did close from behind well as Shotski set another horridly slow pace, challenged only by a couple of marginal speeders who finished 6^th and last.

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11- Silver Prospector (War Front, Steve Asmussen):  War Front is normally thought of as a turf sire, but has also had some capable dirt winners.  Trainer coached the great racer and sire named Curlin. Despite a putridly slow pace, Silver Prospector passed 5 horses in the stretch to win the KYJC G2.  Alas, he couldn’t repeat last out in the Smarty Jones, in which I’m not buying too much into the winner’s Beyer figure.  Nobody can convince me that 49 seconds is a legit half mile pace in a mile race.  He will thrive with a faster pace and longer race.

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12- Chance It (Currency Swap, Saffie Joseph):  Not household sire or trainer names outside of Florida, where horsemen certainly know who Saffie is. His first race of the year was also his first outside of state restricted company, and he did just as well as in 5 races last year, 3 wins by a combined 20 lengths, including 2 stakes wins, and 2 losses by less than a length.  I have no reason to doubt the Dixie Union sireline and this horse has excelled under various paces.  He also now has the top Power rating in the Grid, but we’re still awaiting a graded race.

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There are a few others that I wanted to include in the top 12, but there just wasn’t room for them as it’s very competitive right now.  You can see them listed in the rest of the top 25 table above.

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Get the Grid daily or the Kentucky Derby Grid here.

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February 7, 2020.  Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 2 opens on Friday and will go on through Sunday.  Note that the odds will change in real time daily.  The morning line favorite is “all other 3yo’s” as usual, and the individual favorite is Tiz the Law after his Holy Bull G3 win last week.

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Kentucky Derby Central

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The Grid PP’s for the Futures Pool are available right here for free, no questions asked. Each of the individual 23 entries has past performance figures and other speed calculations, pedigree information, owner and trainer information, and a full legend, all in one page for this special edition. Remember to check with your favorite wagering site for current odds each day.

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We will not break down each horse on this page, because we’re doing a Double Derby Dozen for this very occasion, so there will be plenty of analysis there.  But we will note the individual entries are in the Sam F Davis stakes on Saturday:  Independence Hall and Premier Hall.  Storm the Court could participate in the San Vicente on Sunday.

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Sign up for all the Grids right here.

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Saturday, February 1. Gulfstream Park kicks off February 2020 in style with 5 stakes races on Saturday including 4 G3’s:  the Holy Bull, Forward Gal, Swale, and Sweetest Chant, and the listed Dania Beach stakes.  All 5 of the stakes are for 3yo’s, with the Forward Gal and Sweetest Chant reserved for fillies. Let’s preview all the stakes races since we haven’t done that in a while.

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R6: Forward Gal G3 7f dirt 3yo F

The short field of 6 doesn’t make it real enticing for bettors, except that the 1-2 morning line favorite Tonalist Shape is not invincible. She’ll have to catch the speedy Street of Dreams and Compensate, both of whose speed is proven at or near this distance.  Nikki and Papa 15-1 might even have something to say in her first time out.

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R7:  MSW 50k 8f dirt 3yo

OK so it’s not a stakes race, but connections will be comparing these competitors to the stakes runners on the day, as will we. On paper it’s a 2 horse race between heavy favorite Palm Springs and King Khozan.  But don’t be surprised if first timers Mr Candy Ride 6-1 and/or Mauro’s Team 20-1 make some noise, and Sir Kahn 15-1 has an oscillatory pattern showing he should be up for another big one.  Long shot special alert.

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R8: Sweetest Chant G3 8f turf 3yo F

The 2 favored fillies coming off 1^st and 2^nd in the Ginger Brew stakes here in early Jan, will be tough to beat, as will Sunset Promise who finished a close 4^th in that one. People will forget about Cheermeister 10-1 who finished 10^th in that, but in her previous race she proved that her speed can hold up in an 8f stakes race when unpressured, and there isn’t much speed in this.  Sunset Promise and Moana’s Tale 8-1 are the most likely pressurizers that can benefit from the apparent lack of speed.  Reluctant Bride 12-1 had a great closing move in her 5f debut and can improve here.  That’s 3 more long shot specials.

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R9: Swale G3 7f dirt 3yo

Green Light Go is the ML fav because of the graded stakes credentials, 2^nd in the Champagne G1 and more relevantly, 1^st in the Saratoga Special G2 which is close to this distance.  I suspect 2^nd ML choice Untitled will wind up the favorite after an 11 length debut win here in December. The speed of Mischievous Alex was devastating in a 7f Parx stakes last out in November.  Shivaree at 6-1 may be the crowd favorite, running for his 8^th time here in Miami, the last 2 of which produced stakes wins. Necker Island 6-1 and Inter Miami 12-1 could figure in but will need to improve. Most intriguing is Flash Pass at 30-1, whose PF on paper isn’t great, but it was a 12 length debut win.  It was only a MC12500-c but there could be more in the tank.  Some possibilities here, but all dependent on anyone catching Untitled.

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R10:  Dania Beach 100k 8f turf 3yo

Once again, 2 solid favorites here, but only one, Homeland, with 2^nd place stakes credentials.  Then there are lots of possibilities.  Not sure why Get Smokin is listed at 12-1 after a 2^nd place Kitten’s Joy G3 finish last out, especially when this field is almost devoid of speed as well, meaning he could be loose on the lead again. Long shot special alert.  South Bend 6-1 has 2nd LP and will be very dangerous if he likes the turf, as could be said about Sprawl 12-1.  This race looks like it sets up perfectly for EP4 Mr. Kringle at 10-1 in the same way it should for South Bend.  If Peruvian Boy at 20-1 likes turf he could show up well.  As said, lots of long shot possibilities here.

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R11:  Holy Bull G3 8.5f dirt 3yo

Back to a short field of 7 for the feature race, and not seemingly a lot of possibilities, unfortunately.  Tiz the Law is the deserving favorite after winning the Champagne G1 and losing by a length in the KYJC G2 in the slop.  Ete Indien at 6-1 was excellent in his first dirt race, holding off 2^nd ML choice Toledo for a mile win here in December.  After that, Relentless Dancer 8-1 seems like the only realistic long shot possibility, coming off a long layoff after a 10 length stakes win in October. Mayberry Deputy at 15-1 will have to step up in class once more but could get on the board if Dancer doesn’t.

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In last weekend’s stakes races here, most of the winners and other ITM finishers came from the top LP rankings in the Grid, which may well happen again.  However this weekend, most of those are in the chalky area of the board as well.  Grab the Gulfstream Grid below for all 12 Saturday races.

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February 2020 Thoroughbred stakes schedule for North America, Ascot, and Japan.

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February stakes highlights here, full schedule below.

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Feb.1- Gulfstream: 3 G3’s for 3yos: Holy Bull, Swale, Forward Gal

Feb.1- Santa Anita: Bob Lewis G3, San Marcos G2, San Pasqual G2

Feb.8- Delta: Louisiana Premier Night 10 stakes races including 3yo Prince and Starlet

Feb.8- Tampa: Sam Davis G3, Tampa Bay G3

Feb.15- Fairgrounds: Risen Star G2, Rachel Alexandra G2, Mineshaft G3, Fairgrounds G3

Feb.17- Gulfstream: 12 listed stakes races

Feb.17- Oaklawn: Southwest G3, Razorback G3, Bayakoa G3

Feb.23- Sunland:  4 stakes including Mine that Bird Derby

Feb.29- Gulfstream: 9 Graded stakes races; Fountain of Youth G2 and Davona Dale G2

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February 1, 2020

Withers S (GIII) Aqu        Feb 1     $250k g 3yo         9f            Dirt         Closed on Jan 18.

Randy P. Romero Memorial S     FG          Feb 1     $60k g   3yo         abt 8f    Turf        Closed on Jan 18.

Dania Beach S    GP          Feb 1     $100k g 3yo         8f            Turf        Closed on Jan 19.

Forward Gal S (GIII)        GP          Feb 1     $150k g 3yo f      7f            Dirt         Closed on Jan 19.

Holy Bull S (GIII)                GP          Feb 1     $250k g 3yo         8.5f        Dirt         Closed on Jan 19.

Swale S (GIII)     GP          Feb 1     $150k g 3yo         7f            Dirt         Closed on Jan 19.

Sweetest Chant S (GIIIT)              GP          Feb 1     $100k g 3yo f      8f            Turf        Closed on Jan 19.

American Beauty S          OP          Feb 1     $125k g 4&up f/m            6f            Dirt         Closed on Jan 23.

Martha Washington S    OP          Feb 1     $150k g 3yo f      8f            Dirt         Closed on Jan 23.

Robert B. Lewis S (GIII)  SA           Feb 1     $100k g 3yo         8.5f        Dirt         Closed on Jan 23.

San Marcos S (GIIT)         SA           Feb 1     $200k g 4&up     10f          Turf        Closed on Jan 23.

San Pasqual S (GII)          SA           Feb 1     $200k g 4&up     9f            Dirt         Closed on Jan 23.

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February 2, 2020

Busanda S           Aqu        Feb 2     $100k g 3yo f      9f            Dirt         Closed on Jan 18.

Negishi S (JPN-III)            JRA         Feb 2     $759k a 4&up     7f            Dirt         Closed on Dec 24.

Silk Road S (JPN-IIIT)       JRA         Feb 2     $785k a 4&up     6f            Turf        Closed on Dec 24.

Baffle S SA           Feb 2     $75k a   3yo         5.5f        Turf        Closed on Jan 23.

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February 8, 2020

Jimmy Winkfield S           Aqu        Feb 8     $100k g 3yo         7f            Dirt         Closed on Jan 25.

Louisiana Premier Night Bon Temps Starter         DeD       Feb 8     $50k g   4&up f/m S         5f            Dirt         Closed on Jan 24.

Louisiana Premier Night Championship  DeD       Feb 8     $150k g 4&up S  8.5f        Dirt         Closed on Jan 24.

Louisiana Premier Night Distaff  DeD       Feb 8     $125k g 4&up f/m S         8f            Dirt         Closed on Jan 24.

Louisiana Premier Night Gentlemen Starter         DeD       Feb 8     $60k g   4&up S  8.5f        Dirt         Closed on Jan 24.

Louisiana Premier Night Ladies Starter   DeD       Feb 8     $60k g   4&up f/m S         8f            Dirt         Closed on Jan 24.

Louisiana Premier Night Matron                DeD       Feb 8     $100k g 4&up f/m S         5f            Dirt         Closed on Jan 24.

Louisiana Premier Night Prince  DeD       Feb 8     $100k g 3yo S     8f            Dirt         Closed on Jan 24.

Louisiana Premier Night Ragin Cajun Starter        DeD       Feb 8     $50k g   4&up S  5f            Dirt         Closed on Jan 24.

Louisiana Premier Night Sprint   DeD       Feb 8     $100k g 4&up S  5f            Dirt         Closed on Jan 24.

Louisiana Premier Night Starlet  DeD       Feb 8     $100k g 3yo f S   8f            Dirt         Closed on Jan 24.

Shantel Lanerie Memorial S         FG          Feb 8     $60k g   3yo f      abt 8f    Turf        Closed on Jan 25.

Suwannee River S (GIIIT)              GP          Feb 8     $150k g 4&up f/m            9f            Turf        Closed on Jan 26.

King Cotton S     OP          Feb 8     $125k g 4&up     6f            Dirt         $0/Jan 30

Patti and Dale (Doc) Shirley Memorial     Ril           Feb 8     $5,000 a                3&up     6f            Dirt         Not Available

Las Virgenes S (GII)         SA           Feb 8     $200k g 3yo f      8f            Dirt         $100/Jan 30

Thunder Road S (GIIIT)  SA           Feb 8     $100k g 4&up     8f            Turf        $100/Jan 30

La Coneja S         Sun        Feb 8     $100k g 4&up f/m S         6f            Dirt         $0/Jan 31

Lambholm South Endeavour S (GIIIT)     Tam       Feb 8     #$175k g              4&up f/m            8.5f        Turf        Closed on Jan 25.

Sam F. Davis S (GIII)        Tam       Feb 8     #$250k g              3yo         8.5f        Dirt         Closed on Jan 25.

Suncoast S          Tam       Feb 8     #$150k g              3yo f      8.32f      Dirt         Closed on Jan 25.

Tampa Bay S (GIIIT)         Tam       Feb 8     #$175k g              4&up     8.5f        Turf        Closed on Jan 25.

Phoenix Gold Cup            TuP        Feb 8     $75k g   4&up     6f            Dirt         $0/Jan 29

Sun City H            TuP        Feb 8     $30k g   4&up f/m            8f            Turf        $0/Jan 29

Turf Paradise H TuP        Feb 8     $30k g   4&up     8.5f        Turf        $0/Jan 29

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February 9, 2020

Biogio’s Rose S  Aqu        Feb 9     $100k g 4&up f/m S         8f            Dirt         Closed on Jan 25.

Kisaragi Sho (JPN-IIIT)    JRA         Feb 9     $759k a 3yo         9f            Turf        Closed on Dec 24.

Tokyo Shimbun Hai (JPN-IIIT)     JRA         Feb 9     $785k a 4&up     8f            Turf        Closed on Dec 24.

San Vicente S (GII)          SA           Feb 9     $200k g 3yo         7f            Dirt         $100/Jan 30

Winsham Lad H Sun        Feb 9     $65k g   4&up     8f            Dirt         $0/Jan 31

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February 14, 2020

Cincinnati Trophy S          TP           Feb 14   #$75k g 3yo f      6.5f        AW         $0/Feb 5

John Battaglia Memorial S            TP           Feb 14   #$100k g              3yo         8.5f        AW         $0/Feb 5

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February 15, 2020

Broadway S        Aqu        Feb 15   $100k g 4&up f/m S         6f            Dirt         $100/Feb 1

Albert M. Stall Memorial S           FG          Feb 15   $100k g 4&up f/m            abt 8.5f Turf        $100/Feb 1

Colonel Power S               FG          Feb 15   $100k g 4&up     abt 5.5f Turf        $100/Feb 1

Fair Grounds S (GIIIT)     FG          Feb 15   $150k g 4&up     abt 9f    Turf        $100/Feb 1

Mineshaft S (GIII)            FG          Feb 15   $200k g 4&up     8.5f        Dirt         $200/Feb 1

Rachel Alexandra S (GII)               FG          Feb 15   $300k g 3yo f      8.5f        Dirt         $300/Feb 1

Risen Star S Presented by Lamarque Ford-Lincoln (GII)   FG          Feb 15   $400k g 3yo         9f            Dirt         $400/Feb 1

El Camino Real Derby     GG         Feb 15   $100k g 3yo         9f            AW         $50/Feb 6

Royal Delta S (GIII)          GP          Feb 15   $150k g 4&up f/m            8.5f        Dirt         $0/Feb 2

Queen Cup (JPN-IIIT)     JRA         Feb 15   $701k a 3yo f      8f            Turf        Closed on Jan 7.

Barbara Fritchie S (GIII) Lrl           Feb 15   $250k g 4&up f/m            7f            Dirt         $0/Feb 6

General George S (GIII)                Lrl           Feb 15   $250k g 4&up     7f            Dirt         $0/Feb 6

John B. Campbell S          Lrl           Feb 15   $100k g 4&up     abt 8.5f Dirt         $0/Feb 6

Miracle Wood S                Lrl           Feb 15   $100k g 3yo         8f            Dirt         $0/Feb 6

Wide Country S Lrl           Feb 15   $100k g 3yo f      7f            Dirt         $0/Feb 6

Dixie Belle S        OP          Feb 15   $125k g 3yo f      6f            Dirt         $0/Feb 6

John K. Goodman            Ril           Feb 15   $4,500 a                3&up     6f            Dirt         Not Available

Pete Selin Memorial The Happy Minute S             Ril           Feb 15   $6,000 a                3&up f/m            5.5f        Dirt         Not Available

Santa Monica S (GII)       SA           Feb 15   $200k g 4&up f/m            7f            Dirt         $100/Feb 6

Minaret S            Tam       Feb 15   $50k g   4&up f/m            6f            Dirt         $0/Feb 1

Pelican S              Tam       Feb 15   #$100k g              4&up     6f            Dirt         $0/Feb 1

Arizona Oaks      TuP        Feb 15   $30k g   3yo f      8f            Dirt         Not Available

Turf Paradise Derby        TuP        Feb 15   $50k g   3yo         8.5f        Dirt         Not Available

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February 16, 2020

Gander S             Aqu        Feb 16   $100k g 3yo S     8f            Dirt         $100/Feb 1

Kyodo News Service Hai (JPN-IIIT)           JRA         Feb 16   $759k a 3yo         9f            Turf        Closed on Jan 7.

Kyoto Kinen (JPN-IIT)     JRA         Feb 16   $1,247k a             4&up     11f          Turf        Closed on Jan 7.

Liz Bracken Memorial     Ril           Feb 16   $5,000 g                3&up     5.5f        Dirt         Not Available

Sweet Life S (GIIIT)         SA           Feb 16   $100k g 3yo f      5.5f        Turf        $100/Feb 6

Enchantress S    Sun        Feb 16   $100k g 3yo f S   8f            Dirt         $0/Feb 7

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February 17, 2020

Hollie Hughes H                Aqu        Feb 17   $100k g 4&up S  6f            Dirt         $100/Feb 1

American Fabius S           GP          Feb 17   $60k g   3yo R     7f            Dirt         $0/Feb 2

Lady Bird S          GP          Feb 17   $50k g   4&up f/m R         7f            Dirt         $0/Feb 2

Little Magician S                GP          Feb 17   $50k g   4&up R 8f            Turf        $0/Feb 2

Mary Todd S       GP          Feb 17   $60k g   4&up f/m R         8.5f        Turf        $0/Feb 2

Mrs. Presidentress S      GP          Feb 17   $60k g   3yo f R  8f            Turf        $0/Feb 2

Old Hickory S      GP          Feb 17   $60k g   4&up R 8.5f        Dirt         $0/Feb 2

Old Man Eloquent S        GP          Feb 17   $60k g   4&up R 8.5f        Turf        $0/Feb 2

Queen Mother S              GP          Feb 17   $60k g   3yo f R  7f            Dirt         $0/Feb 2

Rail Splitter S      GP          Feb 17   $60k g   4&up R 6.5f        Dirt         $0/Feb 2

Rough and Ready S         GP          Feb 17   $50k g   4&up R 8f            Dirt         $0/Feb 2

Sage of Monticello S       GP          Feb 17   $60k g   3yo R     8f            Turf        $0/Feb 2

Trust Buster S    GP          Feb 17   $50k g   4&up R 6f            Dirt         $0/Feb 2

Bayakoa S (GIII)                OP          Feb 17   $200k g 4&up f/m            8.5f        Dirt         $0/Feb 6

Razorback H (GIII)            OP          Feb 17   $500k g 4&up     8.5f        Dirt         $0/Feb 6

Southwest S (GIII)           OP          Feb 17   $750k g 3yo         8.5f        Dirt         $750/Feb 6

Wishing Well S   SA           Feb 17   $70k a   4&up f/m R         5.5f        Turf        $0/Feb 6

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February 22, 2020

Haynesfield S     Aqu        Feb 22   $100k g 4&up S  8f            Dirt         $100/Feb 8

Grasmick S          Fon        Feb 22   $10k a   3&up     4f            Dirt         $0/Feb 18

Any Limit S          GP          Feb 22   $75k g   3yo f      6f            Dirt         $0/Feb 9

Gulfstream Park Sprint (GIII)      GP          Feb 22   $100k g 4&up     6f            Dirt         $0/Feb 9

Hutcheson S       GP          Feb 22   $100k g 3yo         6f            Dirt         $0/Feb 9

Houston Turf S  Hou        Feb 22   $75k g   4&up S  8.5f        Turf        $0/Feb 12

Jim’s Orbit S        Hou        Feb 22   $75k g   3yo c/g S              6f            Dirt         Closed on Jan 1.

Miss Houston Turf S        Hou        Feb 22   $75k g   4&up f/m S         8f            Turf        $0/Feb 12

Two Altazano S Hou        Feb 22   $75k g   3yo f S   6f            Dirt         Closed on Jan 1.

Diamond S (JPN-IIIT)      JRA         Feb 22   $815k a 4&up     17f          Turf        Closed on Jan 7.

Kyoto Himba S (JPN-IIIT)               JRA         Feb 22   $717k a 4&up f/m            7f            Turf        Closed on Jan 7.

Downthedustyroad Breeders’ S                OP          Feb 22   $125k g 3&up f/m S         6f            Dirt         $0/Feb 13

Rillito Hopeful Maiden S                Ril           Feb 22   $5,000 a                3&up R 5.5f        Dirt         Not Available

Buena Vista S (GIIT)        SA           Feb 22   $200k g 4&up f/m            8f            Turf        $100/Feb 13

Lightning City S  Tam       Feb 22   #$100k g              4&up f/m            5f            Turf        $0/Feb 8

Turf Dash             Tam       Feb 22   #$100k g              4&up     5f            Turf        $0/Feb 8

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February 23, 2020

Maddie May S   Aqu        Feb 23   $100k g 3yo f S   8f            Dirt         $100/Feb 8

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February S (JPN-I)           JRA         Feb 23   $2,000k a             4&up     8f            Dirt         Closed on Jan 7.

Kokura Daishoten (JPN-IIIT)        JRA         Feb 23   $815k a 4&up     9f            Turf        Closed on Jan 7.

Spring Fever S   SA           Feb 23   $100k g 4&up f/m S         6f            Dirt         $100/Feb 13

Albert and Henry Dominguez Memorial H             Sun        Feb 23   $100k g 4&up S  8.5f        Dirt         $0/Feb 14

Island Fashion S                Sun        Feb 23   $75k g   3yo f      8f            Dirt         $0/Feb 14

Mine That Bird Derby     Sun        Feb 23   $100k g 3yo         8.5f        Dirt         $0/Feb 14

Red Hedeman Mile         Sun        Feb 23   $100k g 3yo S     8f            Dirt         $0/Feb 14

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February 25, 2020

Mardi Gras S      FG          Feb 25   $75k g   4&up f/m            abt 5.5f Turf        $0/Feb 15

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February 28, 2020

Owner Appreciation Distaff         DeD       Feb 28   $70k g   4&up f/m R         8f            Dirt         $0/Feb 14

Take Charge Brandi         DeD       Feb 28   $70k g   3yo f R  7f            Dirt         $0/Feb 14

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February 29, 2020

Bernardini S        Aqu        Feb 29   $100k g 4&up     10.5f      Dirt         $100/Feb 15

Big Drama            DeD       Feb 29   $70k g   3yo R     7f            Dirt         $0/Feb 14

Owner Appreciation Cup              DeD       Feb 29   $70k g   4&up R 8f            Dirt         $0/Feb 14

Black Gold S        FG          Feb 29   $75k g   3yo         abt 8.5f Turf        $0/Feb 15

Dixie Poker Ace S             FG          Feb 29   $60k g   4&up S  abt 8f    Dirt         $0/Feb 15

Bold Accent S     Fon        Feb 29   $10k a   3&up f/m            4f            Dirt         $0/Feb 22

Canadian Turf S (GIIIT)   GP          Feb 29   $150k g 4&up     8f            Turf        $0/Feb 16

Davona Dale S (GII)         GP          Feb 29   $200k g 3yo f      8f            Dirt         $0/Feb 16

Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S (GII)    GP          Feb 29   $400k g 3yo         8.5f        Dirt         $0/Feb 16

Gulfstream Park Mile (GII)           GP          Feb 29   $300k g 4&up     8f            Dirt         $0/Feb 16

Herecomesthebride S (GIIIT)      GP          Feb 29   $150k g 3yo f      8.5f        Turf        $0/Feb 16

Honey Fox S (GIIIT)         GP          Feb 29   $150k g 4&up f/m            8f            Turf        $0/Feb 16

Mac Diarmida S (GIIT)    GP          Feb 29   $200k g 4&up     11f          Turf        $0/Feb 16

Palm Beach S (GIIIT)       GP          Feb 29   $150k g 3yo         8.5f        Turf        $0/Feb 16

The Very One S (GIIIT)   GP          Feb 29   $150k g 4&up f/m            9.5f        Turf        $0/Feb 16

Spring Fever S   OP          Feb 29   $125k g 4&up f/m            5.5f        Dirt         $0/Feb 20

Pasadena S         SA           Feb 29   $200k g 3yo         8f            Turf        $100/Feb 20

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Saturday, January 25, 2019. Gulfstream Park has 9 stakes races on the way, headlined by the Pegasus World Cup Grade 1 races, 1 each on dirt and turf.  4 other graded stakes and 3 listed stakes will build up to the G1 invitational cups.

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The PWC Turf G1 has a field of 12 and an alternate competing for the $1 million purse.  The field includes several top Breeders Cup finishers and an assortment of other top turf winners. In fact, only one of them is not a graded stakes winner and several are G1 winners.  It’s wide open.

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The PWC on dirt similarly attracts a field of 12 competing for the $3 million purse, the likes of which won’t be seen until the first weekend in May at Churchill Downs. This of course attracted some of the top horses from around the country, with again many graded stakes winners.  Omaha Beach is the favorite, but there are a lot of possibilities in this one too.

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That’s why your best bet is to get the free Gulfstream Grid here, follow along all race day and see how the track, trainers, and jockeys are playing, and take your best shot. Good luck.