Weekend Winners Club

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November 22, 2018. It’s never too early to start betting the 2019 Kentucky Derby, as evidenced by Derby 19 Futures Pool 1 opening on Thanksgiving Day 2018, and available until Nov.25.
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The odds will change each day and you can lock in at those odds by betting by the end of each particular day. Or you can wait until Sunday and see which horses or sire’s progeny have run this weekend. It’s up to you.
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But the Grids here are only reflecting the initial morning line odds, so you will check with your local wagering service for the real time odds before you bet anything.
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The Grid gives you the performance figures (PF’s) and some other factors regarding early pace, late pace, and power, along with trainer and sire information.
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Those contenders with sires in bold mean that the sires have individual wagering entries in the Sire Futures Grid. Correspondingly, those in bold in the Sires Grid have individual progeny bettable in the Futures Grid.
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For fun I was comparing the sires and this year’s Derby crop side by side, and you can tell that there’s a big difference. Of course, some of these 2yo’s could go on to put up great triple digit PF’s like the sires on the left.
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Also it’s important to keep in mind that the Thoroughbred Supertest inception was in about 2005, after which horses notoriously delivered less performances as a whole. This is because juicing was almost impossible after the Supertest.
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Candy Ride, Medaglia D’oro and Ghostzapper were at the tail end of the non-supertesting era. However, horses like Bernardini and Curlin, and Uncle Mo proved that great PF’s are still possible in the supertesting era. So that’s a nice little graphic.
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So here are the actual Kentucky Derby Futures Grids, so that you can make your own decisions on who to bet this weekend.
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Kentucky Derby 2019 Futures Pool 1 Grid
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Kentucky Derby 2019 Sire Futures Pool 1

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Wednesday, November 21. Zia Park Championship Day is here! The biggest day of the year for Zia Park has (count em) 7 stakes races, with exactly $1 million up for grabs in purse money, between all the races
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Here’s the lineup, starting at 1:21PM Zia time in race 4:
Zia Juvenile $75k
Zia Distaff $100k
Zia Princess $75k
Zia Sprint $100k
Zia Championship $150k
Zia Oaks $250k
Zia Derby $250k
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See how the purses nicely add up to $1 million? Now before you scoff at the featured Zia Park Derby, this is an excellent field of 3yo’s from around the world. Yes there is one import who raced in Europe and Dubai.
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Combatant was a Kentucky Derby participant this year, and didn’t run too well there but qualified by finishing in the money in each of the Southwest G3, Rebel G2, and Arkansas Derby G1. Recently he finished 4th in the Oklahoma Derby. It’s no wonder he’s the morning line favorite.
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Frontrunner All Out Blitz was on the Triple Crown Trail early this year after a 2nd place Sham G3 finish, before disappointing in the Sunland Derby.
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Sky Promise crosses the border from Canada after sweeping the Manitoba Derby, Canada Derby G3, and British Columbia Derby G3, his 1st 3 races on dirt. The great closer is 4-1 ML.
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Yulong Warrior shipped from Dubai after winning a stakes race then disappointing in the UAE Derby. He comes off a stakes win at Emerald Downs.
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Limation was flat in the OK Derby, but won the Louisiana Super Derby G3 prior to that. Several others in the field are stakes winners or stakes placed.
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Interestingly, 2nd ML choice Air Strike listed at 7-2, has not run in stakes company yet, but has been impressive in his last 2.
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My early picks in order are:
Yulong Warrior 6-1
Combatant 5-2
Sky Promise 4-1
Limation 6-1
All Out Blitz 15-1
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The Zia Park Oaks features one of the top 3yo fillies on the continent, She’s a Julie, who has recently won the Iowa Oaks and Remington Oaks, and finishing 2nd in the Alabama G1.
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2nd ML choice Secret Spice will need to run her last race to have a chance at the favorite. The others will all need to run their best race to be on the same page.
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As avid Kentucky Derby fans, we do have to keep a watchful eye on the 2yo races. The Zia Juvenile may not be the Breeders’ Cup Juvnile, but there are some promising 2yos in this group worth watching.
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Break down the rest of the races yourself using the free grid below.
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Get Zia Park Championship Grid here now free.
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Monday, November 19. Thanksgiving week is Free Grid Week here at the WWC. That means a free grid every day this week, for those who have the day off and are already tired of shopping.
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The following stakes races are on tap at Mahoning Valley Race Track today, making it a big day for the small town, small time, but aesthetically pleasing track.
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The $250k Steel Valley Sprint has attracted top 3yo sprinters from eastern America, including BC Dirt Mile participant Trigger Warning, graded stakes winnner Still Having Fun, and Wyatt’s Town who comes off 2 stakes wins at Woodbine.
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Honorable Treasure finished 2nd to 3rd place Kentucky Derby finisher Audible last out at in a stakes at Churchill Downs, Navy Commander is a stakes winner, and K Force just broke his maiden 2nd time out but looks ready to take on the big boys.
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Get the Mahoning Valley Monday Grid here free!
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Sunday, November 18. The Aqueduct is 1 of 4 North American tracks to have a single stakes race on Sunday, which isn’t great but such is post-Breeders’ Cup life in November. They also have a Pick 6 carryover of $50k going in.
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At 7f on dirt with $125k up for grabs, you might just want to watch and wager. Especially if you have heard of any of these horses running.
1 Tribecca 10-1
2 Winston’s Chance 6-1
3 My Boy Tate 3-1
4 Loki’s Vengeance 9-2
5 Benevolence 12-1
6 Sudden Surprise 12-1
7 Gold For The King 7-5
8 Fleet Irish 20-1
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With 8 races on the card, the Pick 6 will begin in race 3 at about 1:50pm. Be there or be nowhere.
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View Aqueduct Grid here free

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Sunday, November 4. Stakes racing continues at the Aqueduct today with the Nashua G3 for 2yos. It’s a great day for racing and AQ has a Pick 6 carryover going in today.
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The featured race has only 6 horses but it’s a solid competitive field of maiden winners looking to achieve the next level.
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Download Aqueduct Sunday Free Grid here
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Breeders Cup Day 2: Value and Longshots
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For Full Breeders Cup Grids click here. Cost $9
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Saturday, November 2, Churchill Dows. Racing is already underway for the Breeders Cup Day 2 and there have already been some long shots. I wanted to wait to see how a few races played out. Race 1 and 2 winners were predictable, but then we get to race 3, the 1st Breeders Cup race, and chaos ensues.
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IN race 3 the filly and mare sprint, Shamrock Rose won at 25-1. Not the longest shot in the field, she was the 7th betting choice out of 14. If you look at that race on paper, 10 of the 14 have QSP of 5 or more. That’s a lot of speed. There was only 1 with 0, the P0, who won the race. In 4th was the P2. Chaos
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Race 4 it was back to predictability with the top 3 betting choices finishing top 3.
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Race 5 BC Dirt Mile: The top 2 favs look very solid coming in and I doubt they will be beat. If the pace does get really heated, look for the two S types and the P, 6 7 and 8 , to get in on the action.
Value 6 7 8
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Race 6 BC Filly Mare Turf 11f: Typically the Euros win this type of race. Wild Illusion and Magic Wand will likely be the top 2 betting choices. Eziyra looks to be of great value so far. A Raving Beauty and Santa Monica could surprise because there’s just not much speed, other than Magic Wand and Thais.
Value 9 12 14
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Race 7 BC Sprint 6f: This has the least early speed of any BC Sprint in memory. We’re getting double digits on Distinctive B. This race will deliver on Promises Fulfilled as well with early inside speed. Roy H and Imperial Hint have their work cut out for them.
Value 2 7
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Race 8 BC Mile turf: Again you have to think Euros, but because it’s 1 mile and not 2, the Americans have a chance. Almost a complete lack of speed in this one among the horses we have digits for. Oscar Performance and Analyze it should do very well. Most of the foreigners look good, especially Expert Eye and Mustashry.
Value 5 and 12 hopefully if they don’t get bet down. 7 8 and 14
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Race 9 BC Distaff 9f: Monomoy Girl is the one to beat, and there’s no reason to doubt her. Again not much early speed here so Abel Tasman, Midnight Bissou, Wow Cat, Blue Prize and even Wonder Gadot could get in on it. Vale Dori could be back in top form.
Value: 9 7 10
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Race 10 BC Turf 12f: Again with the Euros. Favorite Enable may be a filly but nobody told her she’s supposed to lose to the colts, which she doesn’t. Magical is coming off a G1 win at Ascot. Channel Maker is excellent and Robert Bruce has great late pace ability. Glorious Empire is on a 3 win streak. So many great horses.
Value: 3 4 5 7
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Race 11 BC Classic: There’s no doubt Accelerate is the class of the field, winning 5 of last 6 in the best of company. We have to find some value though. Pavel is in top form. Catholic Boy made a great return to dirt in winning the Travers, and McKenzie was Baffert’s top 3yo, ahead of Justify, until he got injured. There’s a solid amount of speed to make it honest but should not get too hot up front.
Value: 6 1 8 11 12
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So the Grid didn’t help you with any value in Breeders Cup Day 1. Kidding!! As usual, big time value was had throughout Day 1, as early speed dominated many of the races with big prices, on dirt as well as turf.
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Let’s do a quick recap listing the winners and where the Grid placed them, and other horses of value.
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Race 1 8.5f dirt OCM: top LP won 3-1 (not claiming it’s good value but we can’t help it when chalk wins)
Race 2 6f dirt MSW: top EP won at 14-1
Race 3 8f dirt OCM: top EP won at 28-1
Race 4 8f dirt 100k: top EP won even money
Race 5 5.5 turf 1M BC Juvenile Turf Sprint:
Top LP won at 4-1
Top EP 2nd at 24-1
Race 6 8f turf Juve Fillies turf G1:
Top EP won even money
2nd EP 3rd place 70-1
Race 7 8.5f dirt Juve Fillies G1: top 4 in several categories, won at 5-1
Race 8 8f turf Juve turf G1: Euro invader won at 4-1
Race 9 8.5 dirt Juvenile G1:
Winner 2nd in all categories across board
Race 10 14 dirt marathon G2: top LP won at 2-1

So the point is that there was some good value, particularly at the top EP positions, but also on some of the LP contenders, depending on the race. That’s why these factors can be very powerful. The Day 1 Grid is now free for download so you can see exactly what happened. Scratched horses were deleted as such.

Check out the Day 1 Results Grid here for proof this isn’t bullshit.
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If you want today’s full Breeders Cup Grid, just click here.

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Friday, November 2, Churchill Downs.
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Friday’s focus race is the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile G1 Stakes (BCJ). In an excellent day of racing that includes 7 stakes races, 5 or which are graded at the Churchill Downs on Friday, and 7 total races for juveniles. Many eyes will be on race 9, as people begin looking for next year’s Kentucky Derby champion. It’s never too early!
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Although this year’s Kentucky Derby (KYD) champion did not run in the BCJ, he was an anomaly as you probably know. First horse in over 130 years to win the big one after not racing at all as a 2yo, only 3 career races. Justified breaking a lot of the “rules.” But the horse finishing behind him in 2nd was the BCJ champ.
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In fact, most Kentucky Derby winners have ran in the BCJ since its inception, and several also won that race as a 2yo, including such champs as Nyquist and Street Sense. The Kentucky Derby superfecta is typically dominated by horses that ran well in the BCJ.
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Needless to say, the BCJ an important race which normally determines at least who the 2yo champion is and the early KYD favorite. So without further ado let’s take a look at the BCJ Grid. I stretched it out to include the Marathon G2 in this snapshot for you. You’re welcome.
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Click the pic to enlarge.
Don’t know how to read a Grid? Click here.

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14 top 2yo’s are set compete in this race, some of which look better on paper than others. Looking really good is favorite Game Winner, mostly because he’s won all 3 of his games so far, including 2 G1 races, the last of which was the American Pharoah Stakes, named after one of Baffert’s 2 great Triple Crown winners.
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Given that Baffert is the only trainer alive, and one of only two trainers definitively, to direct the training of 2 separate Triple Crown champions, it’s not a surprise he’s favored. Last year he finished 2nd with his 2nd best horse in this race. But they run the races for a reason. Last year’s heavy favorite finished 3rd.
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The 2nd morning line choice Complexity has every right to claim he’s the one to beat in this race. He’s won both of his races so far, including the Champagne G1 for Chad Brown, winning trainer of last year’s BCJ. Champagne Stakes runner up Code of Honor may have benefited from moving earlier in that fast paced prep. Gunmetal seemed to regress in the Pharoah but he only lost to Game Winner in that one.
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So those are your obvious top choices, but we need to look at some other options that will offer better odds. For one thing, the amount of early speed in this race is very high on paper, with 4 E/EP 8s and 11 in the field of 14 with Quirin Speed Points of 5 or higher.
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What you may not know is that this is typical for the BCJ, since 2yos are forced to run at least somewhat early in their sprint preps to have any chance of winning. In this race, many of them will be taken back off the pace and forced to try to win with a late run.
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But it also forces us to consider some late running options. Standard Deviation is one such horse that will get some play. Performance figures not great but neither of his races had a fast pace. And he’s the only one that is a so far runs from well behind the pace.
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You can make a similar case for Dueling, who finally broke his maiden going a mile. The same could be said for Mr. Money, although neither are far back closers. Mind Control has done nothing wrong and improved with distance in winning the Hopeful G1. Good odds too.
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The longshot I like the best is Well Defined. He has the best PF’s and great numbers all around, including winning his first route last out, handily. He’s a frontrunner so far, but his last 2 didn’t have much pace, so consequently he has great LP numbers also. At 20-1 he’s great value and I expect him to hit the toteboard, but you never know with these first time graded race runners.

Now since we also included the Marathon G2, you should go ahead and use that to try find some value. I really don’t see any good contenders at over 5-1, but the odds will change. Then we have a full day of great racing on Saturday including the coveted BC Classic to deal with. But one day at a time.
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Of course, it’s possible to get the Grid for EVERY Breeders’ Cup race on Friday and Saturday. All you have to do is click here and look at the available options, and play with the Grid like the other pros this weekend.

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That’s all for today. Stay tuned to this site for Saturday’s Selected Stakes. It will appear in the Breeders’ Cup Link above. Good luck!

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Sat.Oct.27 Keeneland Racing nearing it’s final days of the fall meet but not too late for the Fayette G2 Stakes race featuring Prime Attraction, Hofburg, Hence, and Leofric.
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Get the Free Keeneland Sat. Grid here now
Get the Free Keeneland Sat. Grid here now
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Saturday, October 20, 2018. Laurel Park, Maryland has an almost all stakes card today, hosting 11 stakes races, none graded, and finishing with a maiden race for some reason. It would have been nice to say it was an all stakes card, but alas it’s not quite.
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At any rate it’s a nice conglomeration of stakes races, with a contest for just about every category. Turf, dirt, sprint, route, male, female, 2yo, 3up. All kinds of races with about 140 horses initially entered just in the stakes races.
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The 2yo races will be very interesting to see if anyone worthy of the Triple Crown Trail comes out of them. So enough of the talk, the races started at noon so it’s already underway as of this posting.
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Get Laurel Grid here free now
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