Weekend Winners Club

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May 20, 2018. The Preakness aftermath can be categorized as a tale of two camps. In one camp, you have those that were elated at the Justify win and perhaps cashed in their winning tickets of $2.80. In camp 2, there are those immediate detractors shouting that he only won by ½ length as others were closing.
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And then there is our site, which doesn’t belong to any camp or groupthought, which is another word for nonthought, both words that I made up. What we do here is objective analysis. Newsflash: the margin of winning a race does not affect the payouts, for the horses, or for the bettors.
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Of course, the diminishing margin of win is a concern for Justify going into the Belmont Stakes, as two horses literally came out of a cloud where they were Lost in the Fog, to close on him and come within that ½ length of victory. And consequently, both have better final ¼ mile times than Justify.
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What you may not know, is that another Baffert horse also had a better ¼ mile time by over a second, in the previous race, which was albeit 1 furlong shorter. And his 8.5f winning time in the Sir Barton was also 2 tenths of a second better than Justify’s. He was also 0.2 seconds faster at the half mile mark. That horse is Ax Man, in his 4th lifetime race.
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There is a reason that old Bob, who is young at heart, enters such a race: so he can see what we just pointed out, how his horse compares to the Preakness field, which he does favorably. Thus we might expect to see Ax Man in the Belmont Stakes, even if it seems a conflict of interest for Bob, who would love for Justify to give him his second Triple Crown sweep.
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If you think about the magnitude of that, we know that there have only been 12 Triple Crown Winners historically, so it’s a very short list already. But consider that of all the trainers who won many TC races, only one has definitely produced multiple Triple Crowns. Jim Fitzsimmons with Gallant Fox and Omaha.
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Legendary hall of fame trainer Ben Jones is also credited by some for Triple Crowns by Whirlaway and Citation, but the latter is also said to have been trained by his son Horace, also in the hall of fame. At any rate, it’s still a very short list, and Baffert having his name on that would ensure his future legend status.
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But what everyone wants to know is: can Justify win the Belmont Stakes? Well of course he can, it’s a horse race and so far he’s the best 3yo, but history is obviously against him. For those 12 Triple Crown champions, there are 22 who won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and did not win the Belmont Stakes. And many others that won 2 of 3 but not all 3.
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Each would be TC Champ has their own individual excuse, but the fact is that the 5 week schedule of the 3 longest races of their young careers, makes it incredibly difficult for them to be at the top of their game for all 3 races. In addition, the added length of the Belmont Stakes makes it difficult for the horse to be conserved and the jockey to move at the right time.
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Let’s factor in a little pedigree. Although horses from the legendary Storm Cat sireline have finished in the money in the Kentucky Derby several times, Justify is the first to actually win it. Now consider that also no Storm Cat sireline horse has ever won the Belmont Stakes, although several have been 2nd or 3rd.
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The Belmont Stakes champions club has been almost exclusively monopolized by primarily the Raise a Native sireline, and also by the AP Indy/ Bold Ruler sireline, who also boast many 2nd or 3rd place finishes. In the past 30 years, only 4 other sirelines have actually won it, a total of 8 times. Those are also heavy odds to overcome. The past 4 Triple Crown winners were split between RAN and BR.
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You can factor in the front end running style, which is difficult to win with at 12 furlongs and has not been done very often at all in the Belmont Stakes. When it has, it’s been by confused jockeys that allow the winner to be some long shot, which Justify will definitely not be. He’s no rabbit, and they’ll be pressing him.
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So did we answer the question? Yes Justify can win the Belmont Stakes, but the odds are obviously against him. The competition will be fierce and he will need to be the superhorse his backers want him to be to win this one and sweep the Triple Crown.

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Friday, May 16 2018. Pimlico kicks off its biggest racing weekend of the year with the Preakness Eve card featuring the Black Eyed Susan G2, Dupont Distaff G3, Miss Preakness G3, and Pimlico Special G3, the historic race founded by the legendary match race between Seabiscuit and War Admiral.
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The 14 race card is represents their second biggest race day of the year (of all 12 of them, and behind tomorrow’s of course.) With the track already sloppy and more rain in the forecast, it should provide an adequate preview of the Preakness card tomorrow. All turf races except for the 2 listed stakes have been changed to the mud course.
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Grid includes scratches and course changes.
Pimlico Black Eyed Susan Day Grid Here Free
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Full Preakness Day Pimlico Grid can bet obtained here.

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Saturday, May 12. Belmont Park has a big card today featuring the ManOWar G1, Peter Pan G3, Beaugay G3, Vagrancy G3, and Runhappy stakes. We would expect 1 or 2 from the Pan to run in the Belmont Stakes next month.
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Belmont Grid one click to download here free
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Monday, May 6, 2018. Last week, we pummeled you with articles, all of which pointed to a winning trifecta and possibly even a superfecta if you had the Grid. You would have been hard pressed to get better information somewhere else, but then again, it wasn’t too difficult to get the top 3.
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While armchair jockeys and trainers bragged about picking the favorite to win, as if that’s difficult, or complained that another favorite won, as if there’s anything that we can do about that, we just keep cranking out great info that gives you the best shot.
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This discussion is in terms of where the top 4 Derby finishers ranked in these articles. And let’s be honest right away, INSTILLED REGARD was the longest shot in the field. NOBODY saw him coming, or did they? Stay tuned to the end when the Derby Grid A-LIST is shown.
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Let’s start with the Derby Dozen posted April 16. This was the last Kentucky Derby ranking list that we posted, so we have to consider it as the official final Derby ranking list on our site. Yes we were ready to bet the race 3 weeks beforehand.
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JUSTIFY: 4th
GOOD MAGIC: 1st
AUDIBLE: 3rd
INSTILLED REGARD: not in the top 20 and had not drawn into the race yet. Still behind 2 alternates.
SYNOPSIS: You could have just boxed the top 4 for the trifecta right there. We can Justify 4th because he only ran 3 career races and had 2 big curses to overcome, which he must have used Good Magic for.
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Just going chronologically, I noticed we did a special article focusing just on Magnum Moon and his Arkansas Derby win, and why he would NOT win the Kentucky Derby. He actually finished 19th, so that article was well placed.

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Moving along, Kentucky Derby 2018 sires and sirelines was another big one that combined a lot of history with knowledge and memory from experience. 14 sirelines listed, here’s how they measured up.
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JUSTIFY: 4th
GOOD MAGIC: 1st
AUDIBLE: 11th
INSTILLED REGARD: 14th
SYNOPSIS: It was somewhat subjective but solid. Maybe Into Mischief moves up next time.
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The next article was called Major Preps Winners and Runners Up, 1997-Present. The purpose of the article was emphasizing that statistically, there is a 62% chance the Derby winner won his final major prep race, and 90% chance he was 1st or 2nd. Meaning your A-LIST was the 6 major prep winners.
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JUSTIFY: 1st final prep
GOOD MAGIC: 1st final prep
AUDIBLE: 1st final prep
INSTILLED REGARD: 4th final prep
SYNOPSIS: As advertised, not only the winner but 2nd and 3rd place were from the 6 A-list horses.
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Next up was Kentucky Derby Jockeys and Trainers, which showed the list of the past 20 winners of the Derby, and highlighting those who were repeat winners. This resulted in 6 A-List trainers, ranked accordingly, who had already won the Derby before. Then there were B-List trainers who hadn’t won yet, but probably will.
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JUSTIFY: 1st on A-List, now 5 time Derby winning trainer Baffert.
GOOD MAGIC: 1st on B-List, Derby runner up Brown
AUDIBLE: 3rd on A-List, 2 time Derby winner Pletcher
INSTILLED REGARD: Hollendorfer didn’t make either list, but he’s been around for a while and is a legit trainer.
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In the same article, we also covered the Jockeys, as advertised, and sorted them similarly, according to prior Derby wins and potential to win 1 if they haven’t. Only 4 made the A-List as previous winners.

JUSTIFY: 4th on A-List, Mike Smith won his 2nd Derby
GOOD MAGIC: B-List jockey Jose Ortiz
AUDIBLE: B-List Javier Castellano is Pletcher’s 2nd fav rider but still hasn’t won the big one.
INSTILLED REGARD: C-List newcomer Drayden Van Dyke had a hell of a first run.
SYNOPSIS: Ortiz and especially Castellano are considered A-List jockeys by most people, but for the purposes of this article, A-List was only prior Derby winners. If we had taken the time to rank all those on the B-List, Castellano would be #1 on that list. Ortiz would have been maybe 5. But alas, the winner was another repeat jockey from A-List.

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The last article written on Derby day itself was, called Kentucky Derby for Complete Dummies, and although sprinkled with humor, it greatly simplified a way to rank horses based on qualifications. Assigning an A or B to 5 different categories, it left us with 5 A-List horses and 5 B-List contenders.
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JUSTIFY: A-LIST
GOOD MAGIC: A-LIST
AUDIBLE: A-LIST
INSTILLED REGARD: D-LIST?
SYNOPSIS: Top 3 all from 5 on the A-List. Dummies should have bet them.
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That brings us to the real deal, distributed only to paid subscribers and buyers, the 2018 Kentucky Derby Grid itself, which you may or may not have seen. The Derby Grid does assign scores and even gives some rankings, but the key is that the horse must have a critical score of 16 or up to qualify as Derby champion (A-List).
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This year was odd as there were 8 top qualifiers in the field. Normally there are about 4-6, as in last year there were 4 and Derby Champ Always Dreaming was 1 of them. The good news is that of this year’s top 4 Derby finishers, all 4 were on the A-List or qualified contenders. Including Instilled Regard!
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JUSTIFY: A-List. Missed 2 factors: only 3 lifetime races, no wins (or races) at age 2.
GOOD MAGIC: A-List. Missed factors: only 2 3yo prep races, speed fig over >= 100 as 3yo.
AUDIBLE: A-List: Missed factors: only 2 3yo preps, dosage points less than 16
INSTILLED REGARD: A-List. Finally! Missed: Top 5 in speed average, 1st or 2nd in G1/G2 as 3yo.
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SYNOPSIS:
People spoke very seriously about the Curse of Apollo, and Justify’s short racing career. Yes those are important factors, but the purpose behind the Derby Grid is that NO SINGLE FACTOR disqualifies a horse from winning the Derby. The point is to have most of the factors. As you can see, all of the above missed two factors.
Justify’s short racing career cost him 2 factors, but that was it. His blazing speed and class that he showed in the G1 Santa Anita Derby and prior 2 races took care of all the other factors. Instilled Regard nailed all the historical factors and only missed out on 2 speed/class factors.
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But the Grid gives you a lot more information than that. It actually shows you all the critical factors, where they finished in their last prep, and like 80 different factors. For example, there were only 5 horses with auction prices of $500k or more. 3 of them finished top 3. The most expensive, $3M Mendessohn, finished last after his debacle.
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So there you have it. If you ingested any of the information above beforehand, I don’t see how you don’t get an easy exacta and trifecta out of it. Of course, a lot of people did, because it wasn’t that difficult, and as evidence it didn’t pay much. But if you did several combinations of logical horses, you could have had several winning tickets.
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The superfecta was a lot harder. You’d almost have to wheel all at the bottom, or just get lucky. Wheeling the 4 spot is usually a good strategy, but almost as often, the illogical long shot comes in the 2 or 3 spot. And worse, sometimes multiple ridiculous long shots in the super.
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A logical long shot for the super would have been Solomini or My Boy Jack, who did get 5th, horses that finish 2nd or 3rd a lot, and have won stakes races. Not a horse coming off 4th place finishes in his last 2 preps. But the stars and muddy track aligned just right for him. We also need to upgrade Drayden Van Dyke, whose previous ride on Instilled Regard resulted in a narrow loss by ¾ length in the Los Al G1 Futurity.
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What does this all mean for the Preakness? Not much! That’s for the next article. Stay tuned!

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Saturday May 5, Churchill Downs. It turns out there aren’t a great many people that want to see 80 different factors, much less analysis of such factors, for the Kentucky Derby. So we made a Derby for Complete Dummies chart!
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If your head is already exploding from hearing terms like Preps, Speed Figures, Sire, Pace, Pedigree, distance, etc, then you are officially a Derby Dummy! and this was written especially for you!
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This chart actually does have some numbers on it, the Performance Figures, as well as odds, which you will be betting on, and names of sires, jockeys, and trainers, just so you can see the basics of what the hell it is that we’re assigning scores to.
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After that, we made it even more complicated than just checking a box, and gave them grades of A or B, or no grade, because knowing that you’re a Dummy, we still want to stretch that noodle a bit and make you ponder.
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So we took the things we wrote entire articles about this week: Sirelines, trainers, jockeys, speed figures, and Prep races, and just assigned a score of A or B in each category, to each horse.
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To further complicate things for your feeble mind, we devised a complex scoring system by giving each A: 6 points and a B: 3 points. That will be sure to rattle your noggin later.
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But the great thing about it is that all your Derby contenders get this simpleton score based on 5 general categories, rather than 80. And it leaves you with 5 A ranked horses and 4 B’s, out of 20.
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After that, your thoroughbred-challenged mind will need to make a decision, based on what horse name or jockey you think is cuter, or however you want to do it. Click on pic to enlarge.
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A-LIST: AUDIBLE, GOOD MAGIC, JUSTIFY, MAGNUM MOON, VINO ROSSO
B-LIST: BOLT D’ORO, ENTICED, MENDELSSOHN, SOLOMINI, NOBLE INDY
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Good Luck!
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UPDATE MAY 6: ACTUAL KENTUCKY DERBY RESULTS
1. JUSTIFY
2. GOOD MAGIC
3. AUDIBLE
4. INSTILLED REGARD
5. MY BOY JACK
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If you still want to go the overly complicated route, you definitely want the full Derby Grid below.
Get the full 2018 Kentucky Derby Grid Here with over 80 different factors including pedigree, performance, and historical criteria!
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Friday, May 4, 2018. Pulling another page from our Kentucky Derby History database, we take a look at jockeys and trainers and their relevance in the Run for the Roses. Shortly we will combine that with the info in the Sirelines article and that in the Major Prep results article and put it all together for you.
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Most people would concur that the trainer is the single most important connection for a Kentucky Derby champion. You will find no disagreement here. When you look at the small handful of trainers that actually make it to the Kentucky, and those that actually win, repeatedly, it is obvious.
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Consider this, out of all the thousands of trainers in the US, in the last 20 years, 1998-2017, there have been 7 repeat Kentucky Derby trainer champions, an astounding 35%! Only 16 different trainers have won the Kentucky Derby during that time frame. It’s difficult enough to get a horse into the race.
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This year’s key trainers (regardless of their trainees this year) and who their entries are in the Derby. You will notice them in the above graphic in bold.
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A-LIST TRAINERS:
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BOB BAFFERT, 4 time Derby champion, trains favorite JUSTIFY and SOLOMINI. Bob became the most recent Triple Crown Champion trainer with American Pharoah in 2015.
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WAYNE LUKAS, 4 time Derby champion, trains BRAVAZO, who could end up the longest shot in the field
(NOTE: leaving out Lukas because he hasn’t won in 20 years, as some might, is a mistake. First of all, he would say “Boy, I was winning the Derby before you were born,” which isn’t true but close enough. )
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TODD PLETCHER, 2 time Derby champion, trains AUDIBLE, MAGNUM MOON, VINO ROSSO, NOBLE INDY. Todd has usually brought 4 or 5 to the dance for years and finally brought one home in 2010.
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DOUG O’NEILL, 2 time Derby champion, may get in with alternate entry BLENDED CITIZEN in the case of a scratch.
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KIRIAN MCLAUGHLIN, 1 time Derby champion with 50-1 Giacamo, trains ENTICED this year
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JASON SERVIS, 1 time Derby champion of crowd pleaser Smarty Jones, brings FIRENZE FIRE
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The remaining trainers are a talented handful of men, but have never won the Kentucky Derby. Of course, odds are 3-2 that it will be a new trainer to win the Derby this year. Here are the trainers who have great records and could break through this year.
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B-LIST TRAINERS: (A-LIST but haven’t won the Derby…. Yet)
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CHAD BROWN: Is considered one of the best young trainers in the US if not the world. Yet to hit 40 years old, he’s won dozens of major graded stakes, 5 Breeders Cup races, and 1 Preakness last year. It’s a matter of time before he wins the Roses and this year all his marbles are on GOOD MAGIC.
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DALE ROMANS: Has been in this race his fair share of times without ever winning, despite hitting a record 700 career wins at Churchill Downs last year. He’s won a shitload of other major stakes races, including the Preakness with Shackleford, the only horse from the Storm Cat sireline to ever win a Triple Crown race. This year he has longshots PROMISES FULFILLED (by Shackleford) and FREE DROP BILLY.
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STEVE ASMUSSEN: His best chance so far was with Preakness champion Curlin, who also finished in the money in the Derby and Belmont, and is the sire of 3 horses in this field, all of which I expect to do well. However, none of them are Steve’s trainees this year. He has long shot COMBATANT.
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KEITH DESORMEUX: Had a great chance 2 years ago with Exaggerator, who was 2nd in the Derby and won the Preakness, similar to his sire Curlin. This year he has scrappy longshot MY BOY JACK.
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The other handful of trainers has all been to this race multiple times before, and a few of them will likely win it one of these times. The rest would be considered C-LIST, if you will.
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Remember our statistics above though, that with only 35% being repeat trainers, that odds are 3-2 that it will be a first time Derby winning trainer, and almost 3-1 that it will be a repeat trainer. This actually bodes well as a whole for the group that hasn’t won yet.
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KENTUCKY DERBY JOCKEYS
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JOCKEYS are a very important part of the equation too. What you have to remember when looking at these statistics, is that very few jockeys get invited to the Kentucky Derby in general, leaving it usually the same relative group of jockeys competing in the big one each year, despite where the horse came from.
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Put it this way, a trainer will make the Derby based on the performance of the horse that he has trained up to that point, and very very very seldom gets replaced by another trainer in the months before May. If the trainer got them there, they keep them. The only exception I can even think of was when War Emblem was switched to Baffert’s care 2 months before he won the KY Derby.
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Jockeys, on the other hand, might ride a horse until he wins an early prep in January, then get replaced by a top jockey at his track, who will then ride him for the Roses as well. This happens all the time, and if the connections find an open top ranked jockey for their Derby mount at some point, the local guy can get the boot, even after riding him all the way up until April.
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So keeping that in mind, let’s look at the repeat jockey Derby champion numbers. There are now 8 repeat winners in the same time frame from 1998-2017! This is partially due to the replacement reality described above, but also because these are the top riders in North America, which is why they end up on the top mounts. Remember also that they can only ride 1 horse in the Derby!
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So without further ado, let’s go over the repeat offenders and how they might do it again.
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A-LIST JOCKEYS:
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VICTOR EZPINOZA: 3 time champion, most recently back to back in 2014-2015. BOLT D’ORO
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KENT DESORMEUX: 3 time champion. It’s been 10 years but he looks to make it 4 with MY BOY JACK
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JOHN VELAZQUEZ: 2 time champion, including last year, and Pletcher’s fav. VINO ROSSO
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MIKE SMITH: 1 time winner aboard 50-1 Giacomo. Rides favorite JUSTIFY in this year’s edition.
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Most of the other rides have also been to this dance before, some multiple times, and I don’t think many people would be surprised if some of these won it this year or in the future.
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Those that are newcomers to the Kentucky Derby who probably will NOT win it this year: Luis Contreras, Drayden Van Dyke and Kyle Frey, whoever that is. That’s your C-LIST.
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So there you have it. Check off your horses that have the right trainer and jockey to increase your odds of picking the right superfecta.
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Get the full 2018 Kentucky Derby Grid Here with over 80 different factors including pedigree, performance, and historical criteria!
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Friday May 4 2018. Today we look at how the major prep winners and runners up fared in the Kentucky Derby from 1997-2017. This is best illustrated by another busy graphic.
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You can see the horses highlighted in the darker blue who won the Kentucky Derby afterwards, but really the column on the right tells it all:
13 of the past 21 KYD winners won their final prep
19 of 21 finished 1st or 2nd in their final prep race
– exceptions Giacomo and Mine That Bird both of which finished 4th
19 of 21 winners were in a Major Final Prep (those listed)
– exceptions Mine That Bird in Sunland and Animal Kingdom in Spiral.
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So there are exceptions to every rule, but would you rather be right 2 of 21 times or 19 of 21 times? I prefer the latter. And the only non-major prep winner you have to worry about is My Boy Jack.
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So basically the condensed list of potential champions is on the first 2 lines. It’s still 12 horses though so I’d like to narrow it down. Using the 13 of 21 bet, over a 62% chance the Roses winner will have won his final race.
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The Louisiana Derby is still questionable in relevance, since only 2 champions went on to win the Roses, Black Gold in 1924 and Grindstone in 1996, the year before this chart begins. But that can always change.
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For the Kentucky Derby champion, I’m narrowing it down to the 5 major champs, all excellent colts, and going 2 deep in only 2 of them to get Bolt D’Oro, runner up to the Derby favorite Justify, and Solomini.
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Although Solomini finished 3rd, a half length behind Quip, the latter is not running for the roses, so I can move up Solomini into his slot and feel Justified about it. Plus I’ve had him ranked top 5 all year.
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The others are qualified on paper but it just doesn’t look like on the track that they have the appropriate speed to keep up with the winners of most of those races. Besides, look at the list of #2’s the past few years. Aside from last year, you probably don’t remember any of them.
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So there it is, using just Major prep winners and runners up, we narrowed the list of contenders down to 5-7 from 20. In the earlier article on Kentucky Derby Sires and Sirelines 2018, we narrowed down the field based on their sire pedigree.
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In the next article we’ll take a look at jockeys and trainers. Then tomorrow we’ll put it all together for you and give you the real short list.

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2018 Kentucky Derby Championship Point Standings | Kentucky Derby 2018 Championship Series Races | Doug’s Derby Dozen
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Get the full 2018 Kentucky Derby Grid Here with over 80 different factors including pedigree, performance, and historical criteria!

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Thursday, May 2 2018. Churchill Downs. This analysis of sires and sirelines is back by popular demand on the similar article done last year, which ended up being a definitive article in winning the Kentucky Derby for most who read it.
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LIST OF HISTORICAL KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER SIRES AND SIRELINES HERE.
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2018 Kentucky Derby Championship Point Standings | Kentucky Derby 2018 Championship Series Races | Doug’s Derby Dozen
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Get the full 2018 Kentucky Derby Grid Here with over 80 different factors including pedigree, performance, and historical criteria!

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Today we’ll look at a brief analysis of the sires of this year’s Kentucky Derby. Judging the relevance of the sires in this race goes way beyond what the sires cost or even how many winners they have. For example, Storm Cat (RIP) was the most prolific, and at one time the most expensive sire in North America, for decades, and still has never had a Kentucky Derby winner from his sireline.
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This year, Storm Cat has the favorite, Justify (Scat Daddy, which stands for Storm Cat Daddy), who must also break the Apollo curse, and also be the only horse to win after only 3 lifetime races. Others from the fabled Storm Cat sireline are also in single digits: Audible and Mendelssohn, which would be the first to win after being unraced in the US.
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The brief graphic below shows you something more relevant: How the actual sires did in Triple Crown races and other major races during their own career. For the discussion, we’ll start with the most relevant sires and work down from there.
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1. CURLIN (Smart Strike, RAN) is one of the most successful young sires in North America and commands a heavy stud fee. The reason is that he is already from a successful sire line, and proved his worth on the track. He finished 3rd, 1st, and 2nd in his Triple Crown series, won the BC Classic and other Grade 1 races. He was horse of the year honors as a 3yo and older male, and is the quintessential Triple Crown sire. It is simply a matter of time before his sireline wins Triple Crown races. Or sweeps the top 3 spots in the Kentucky Derby, which is entirely possible this year.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 20
Progeny this year: GOOD MAGIC, VINO ROSSO, SOLOMINI

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Note: The RAN sireline is responsible for 14 of the last 25 Kentucky Derby champions, and typically has about 25% of the field. This year there are 4 and 1 alternate entry in the Derby field. The most recent Kentucky Derby win for the RAN sireline was in 2017 with Always Dreaming.
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2. MEDAGLIA D’ORO (El Prado, ND) was one of the best classic race horses of his time. Having bad luck in the Kentucky Derby, he got roughed up early and taken off of his early speed game, but decided to participate anyway and wound up 4th. He didn’t care for the Preakness but came back to get beat by a head by the improbable 70-1 Sarava in the Belmont. He finished 1st or 2nd in 10 races thereafter, all G1 and G2 races of 9-10 furlongs, and was unbeatable at 9f to the point where nobody wanted to run against him.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 4
Progeny this year: BOLT D’ORO, ENTICED

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3. CREATIVE CAUSE (Giant’s Causeway, SC) lived up to the Storm Cat sireline to some extent with a 5th place Kentucky Derby, 3rd place Preakness, and several other stakes wins. Giant’s Causeway was of course a multiple G1 winner in Europe but is best known for finishing 2nd in Tiznow’s first of 2 BC Classic wins.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 0 (4 by ND other lines)
Progeny this year: MY BOY JACK
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4. SCAT DADDY (Johannesburg, SC) from the Hennessy division of the prolific Storm Cat sireline, was one of the most promising 2yo’s ever after a win in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. He struggled in the Kentucky Derby and wound up 18th, then retired with an injury. He has yet to sire anyone of note in a Triple Crown Race.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 0 (4 by ND other lines)
Progeny this year: JUSTIFY, MENDELSSOHN, FLAMEAWAY, COMBATANT
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5. MALIBU MOON (AP Indy, BR) is a top 5 North American sire, who finally proved he was a direct descendant of AP Indy by spawning Kentucky Derby champion Orb a few years ago. He did nothing on the race track and was retired early, however clearly still has some great TC genes.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 10
Progeny this year: MAGNUM MOON
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6. SHACKLEFORD (Forestry, SC) from the Storm Cat sireline is probably the most overlooked sire of the decade. He was a front runner who managed 4th in the Derby and 5th in Belmont, and in between won the Preakness. After that he was competitive in winning the Clark and Met Mile and placing in a slew of other graded stakes. His progeny however has yet to make noise in the Triple Crown.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 0 (4 by ND other lines)
Progeny this year: PROMISES FULFILLED
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7. UNION RAGS (Dixie Union, ND) finished 7th in the Kentucky Derby, then redeemed himself by winning the Belmont Stakes after the withdrawal of Derby and Preakness winner I’ll Have Another.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 4
Progeny this year: FREE DROP BILLY
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8. TAPIT (Pulpit, API) was one of the most overrated TC horses ever, being hyped up greatly before finishing 9th in the Derby after winning the Wood. He has been a successful sire thus far, commanding huge prices, and finally put himself on the Triple Crown map in 2017 with Belmont winner Tapwrit.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 10
Progeny this year: HOFBURG
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9. AWESOME AGAIN (Deputiy Minister, ND) was another great race horse of his time. He skipped the Triple Crown while winning the Queen’s Plate in Canada and coming back to win the Jim Dandy. The next year he became unbeatable, rattling off 5 graded stakes wins including the Breeders Cup Classic, his second win over the great Silver Charm that year. Still not a great Triple Crown sire for whatever reason.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 10
Progeny this year: BRAVAZO
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10. TAKE CHARGE INDY (AP Indy, BR) has been a successful sire but his Triple Crown prowess is questionable. He did win the Florida Derby but ended up 19th in the Kentucky Derby. He went on to win 1 of 7 remaining career stakes races, the Alysheba. This year is his second crop.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 10
Progeny this year: NOBLE INDY
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11. INTO MISCHIEF (Harlan’s Holiday, SC) was successful as a 2yo in winning some futurities. His sire Harlan’s Holiday was favored in the Kentucky Derby but finished 7th, and then 4th to War Emblem in the Preakness, and later won the Penn Derby and G1 Donn Handicap. His progeny have yet to impress in the TC.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 0 (4 by ND other lines)
Progeny this year: AUDIBLE
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12. POSEIDON’S WARRIOR (Speightstown, RAN) didn’t do a lot on the track in terms of classic racing. He was a competitive sprinter who won the Vanderbilt G1 as a 4yo. He has a good pedigree.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 20
Progeny this year: FIRENZE FIRE.
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13. MAJESTIC WARRIOR (AP INDY, BR) was not very successful on the track, having won the Hopeful as a 2yo, and then failing to compete on the Triple Crown trail. He has yet to establish any classic relevance.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 10
Progeny this year: LONE SAILOR
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14. ARCH (Kris S, TTO) is from the Hail to Reason division of the Turn To sireline, which has had some success in the Triple Crown, but the sire himself had no Triple Crown record, and is best known as a good turf sire, like Kris S. He did win the Louisiana Super Derby which was run in September.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 5
Progeny this year: INSTILLED REGARD
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PROUD CITIZEN (Gone West, RAN) didn’t win any Triple Crown races, and in fact won only 1 career race, the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland to qualify for the Kentucky Derby, in which he finished 2nd after following a moderate pace set by War Emblem. He got 3rd in the Preakness and 5th in the Belmont. His progeny have much to prove.
Kentucky Derby wins by this sireline: 20
Progeny this year: BLENDED CITIZEN (AE) (sireline ranked 4th if he draws into the Derby)
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Wednesday, April 21. The Final Analysis of the Arkansas Derby and undercard reveals a lot, including that Magnum Moon won’t win the Kentucky Derby this year. If he does somehow, it will be the result of no front end runners being in the race, which is possible but not likely at this point.
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2018 Kentucky Derby Championship Point Standings | Kentucky Derby 2018 Championship Series Races | Doug’s Derby Dozen
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Get the full 2018 Kentucky Derby Grid Here with over 80 different factors including pedigree, performance, and historical criteria!
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There are probably people out there ready to crown Magnum Moon as the next Triple Crown champion after his 4 career races and Arkansas Derby win, if they haven’t done it already with Justify and his 3 career races. Why not just make it Hofburg with his 3 career races and 1 maiden win? That’s why we’re here, to put things in perspective.
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How did Magnum Moon’s running away from the field after setting a marginal pace measure up to the other races at the track that day? This is not only an interesting but useful perspective for the study. There were 7 route races that day, but the Trails End was 14f so it’s kind of irrelevant. We focused on the 6 that were between 8 and 9 furlongs.
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We expected that the fastest fractions and mile time would likely belong to either the optional claimers running only 8 furlongs, or the older Oaklawn Handicap stars to have the best times. The latter ended up being the case, as the Handicap field set the best times across the board, despite racing the longest distance. In fact their 9f time even beat extrapolated 9f times for the horses running shorter distances.
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The other thing we would expect is for 1 of the MSW groups to have the slowest times. Indeed the second group did have the slowest fractions and times except for the initial ¼ mile. However, keep in mind the track was different earlier in the day, rated Good for the 2 MSW groups in races 1 and 3 before it dried out.
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What may be surprising is that the Arkansas Derby group was the second slowest behind that MSW race at half mile and ¾ miles, and only beat the 2 MSW groups at a mile and 8.5f. They were nowhere near the Handicap field, who was much faster at every step in a race run about 40 minutes earlier.
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Thus the pair of 9f stakes races should be the most comparable, but the fields weren’t. The Derby horses were 6/10ths slower at 1st call, 2 full seconds slower at ½ mile, almost 2 seconds slower at 3C, 1.7 seconds slower for the mile and 8.5f, and final times.
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In fact, the only prize the Derby field won was the fastest final furlong, beating the Handicap field by 1/10th of a second. That makes sense because Magnum Moon had plenty of energy left at the end after lollygagging 2 seconds slower at 2C and 3C.
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Thus the Arkansas Derby win was not very impressive, statistically and thus factually. The only field they would have beat at ¾ mile was the 1st maiden group, and the only fields they would have beat at a mile or 8.5f were the two maiden fields running on a wet track not yet rated fast.
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The Derby was at best the 3rd slowest of the 6 races competed at 8-9 furlongs. You would expect more from a Grade 1 field, and the fraction times should have been more comparable to the Handicap field. But in fact it was nowhere near that caliber. They were basically almost 2 seconds slower across the board.
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The bottom line is that Magnum Moon has yet in his vast 4 race career to face a fast pace. It may be that he would hang back and thrive on it, but there’s no evidence of that. It’s easy to have a nice late kick when you gallop around in 48’3 for the half and 1:13’2 for ¾ mile, but not as easy if you’re stalking a 46’3 pace for 10 furlongs.
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So we’re obviously not selling Magnum Moon as a Kentucky Derby champion at this point, and that’s the main reason. He will need to do better than that, and probably can take another step up in class, but he will definitely need to step up in the Run for Roses.

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April 16, 2018. The new Doug’s Double Kentucky Derby Dozen rankings are out in the aftermath of the Arkansas Derby, Lexington Stakes, and the injury or Runaway Ghost. The top 10 didn’t even change except for Hofburg taking the injury slot.
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2018 Kentucky Derby Championship Point Standings | Kentucky Derby Prep and Championship Races
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Get the full 2018 Kentucky Derby Grid Here with over 80 different factors including pedigree, performance, and historical criteria!
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For the purposes of these rankings, we ranked the top 20 as only horses that are currently considered IN the Kentucky Derby field by having top 20 in points earned or otherwise qualifying. Combatant could still get in and would be ranked better if he were.
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I’m sure most rankings have Magnum Moon at the top since he’s the latest big stakes winner, and remained undefeated in only 4 career races. However, he’s been the benefactor of a marginal pace in each of those, including the Arkansas where he set that pace himself.
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Remember, these are not sheeple rankings, or Derby point rankings, which are on a different page. This is how they would be ranked by a professional handicapper, because they were. Detailed Derby prep results are on this page.
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Rank	Horse	Sire	SL	Trainer	Last	Race	Date	Pts	Next (Prob)	In
1	Good Magic	Curlin	RAN	Chad Brown	1st	Blue Grass G2	7-Apr	134	KY Derby 5/5	In
2	Solomini	Curlin	RAN	Bob Baffert	3rd	Ark Derby G1	14-Apr	54	KY Derby 5/5	In
3	Audible	Into Mischief	SC	Todd Pletcher	1st	Fla Derby G1	31-Mar	110	KY Derby 5/5	In
4	Justify	Scat Daddy	SC	Bob Baffert	1st	SA Derby G1	7-Apr	100	KY Derby 5/5	In
5	Bolt d’Oro	Medaglia D’Oro	ND	Mick Ruis	2nd	SA Derby G1	7-Apr	104	KY Derby 5/5	In
6	Magnum Moon	Malibu Moon	API	Todd Pletcher	1st	Ark Derby G1	17-Mar	150	KY Derby 5/5	In
7	Vino Rosso	Curlin	RAN	Todd Pletcher	1st	Wood Mm G2	7-Apr	107	KY Derby 5/5	In
8	Mendelssohn	Scat Daddy	SC	Aiden O’brien	1st	UAE Derby G2	31-Mar	100	KY Derby 5/5	In
9	Noble Indy	Take Charge Indy	API	Todd Pletcher	1st	La Derby G2	24-Mar	110	KY Derby 5/5	In
10	Hofburg	Soothing Touch	ND	Jose Ortiz	2nd	Fla Derby G1	31-Mar	40	KY Derby 5/5	In
11	Lone Sailor	Majestic Warrior	API	Thomas Amoss	2nd	La Derby G2	24-Mar	42	KY Derby 5/5	In
12	My Boy Jack	Creative Cause	SC	Keith Desormeaux	1st	Lexington G3	14-Apr	52	KY Derby 5/5	In
13	Enticed	Medaglia D’Oro	ND	Kiaran McLaughlin	2nd	Wood Mm G2	7-Apr	103	KY Derby 5/5	In
14	Free Drop Billy	Union Rags	ND	Dale Romans	3rd	Blue Grass G2	7-Apr	44	KY Derby 5/5	In
15	Firenze Fire	Poseidon’s Warrior	RAN	Jason Servis	4th	Wood Mm G2	7-Apr	39	KY Derby 5/5	In
16	Flameaway	Scat Daddy	SC	Mark Casse	2nd	Blue Grass G2	7-Apr	70	KY Derby 5/5	In
17	Gronkowski	Lonhro	TTO	Jeremy Noseda	1st	Burradon	30-Mar	E50	KY Derby 5/5	In
18	Promises Fulfilled	Shackleford	SC	Dale Romans	Last	Fla Derby G1	31-Mar	52	KY Derby 5/5	In
19	Quip	Distorted Humor	RAN	Rodolphe Brisset	2nd	Ark Derby G1	14-Apr	90	KY Derby 5/5	In
20	Bravazo	Awesome Again	ND	D. Wayne Lukas	8th	La Derby G2	24-Mar	54	KY Derby 5/5	In
21	Combatant	Scat Daddy	SC	Steve Asmussen	4th	Ark Derby G1	14-Apr	32	KY Derby 5/5	1alt
22	Horse from Japan					Hyacinth	18-Feb	J30	KY Derby 5/5	In
23	Instilled Regard	Arch	TTO	Jerry Hollendorfer	4th	SA Derby G1	7-Apr	29		alt
24	Snapper Sinclair	City Zip	RAN	Steve Asmussen	5th	La Derby G2	24-Mar	22		alt
25	Dream Baby Dream	Into Mischief	SC	Steve Asmussen	7th	Ark Derby G1	14-Apr	20		alt

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:DD